"Could they be saving ammunition for the 2006 election ?"
That would be my take. He declares his policies were right and justified by (this declassified) evidence made public, and timed for the fall elections.
If events in Iraq continue favorably; government is successfully "stood up"; troop drawdowns continue, etc.
Bush declares success and ask voters to strengthen his ability to protect America, by electing Republicans. Republican candidates rn on strong defense "platform" (RNC talking points).
Contrasts nicely against wobbly and inconsistent democrats.
I see the long term WOT in a serial fashion: One country at a time, by whatever means is necessary.
If that means force is needed elsewhere, after Iraq, it is best to be winding down in Iraq first.
I doubt it. Then again, it's said Bush wasknown as the best poker player at Yale.
Even before Iraq has faded from memory, all eyes are on Iran. We will mix American bases on both sides and ships and subs to the south with the paranoia of Mahmood Ahmadinejad. If he screws up and gives us an excuse Iran will be liberated by force. I bet he does nothing but rant until internal pressures replace him for his inaction with a kookier martyr. One who is more likely to give us the excuse we need.
If that takes too long I'm sure an opportunity to advance the WOT has already been laid out. I might go with a strategy that has proved successful already. Just like Iraq Dubya might hint at it in the SOTU. He and his administration could begin making the charges against Iran. The old media, the UN, and the rats will shriek and declare Dubya a madman bent of global domination. The rats will demand Dubya consult them and the President will merely say he has the authority to act as Command in Chief. This will push the rats over the cliff. Stories will leak of troop movements and the military will verify without explanation.
At the hight of the rat and media hysteria, I would reveal irrefutable proof of WMD in Iraq if I had it. Preferably found by the Iraq military.
Then in a prime time address to Congress, the President would calmly lay out a convincing presentation for the next phase of the WOT. He will ask Congress for it's approval. The rats will be screwed again. If they capitulate they lose their base voters, and they lose moderate voters when they obstruct. However when they lose their base they also lose their donors so they will choose political suicide over financial suicide. Dubya will ask the American people to give him a Congress who will work with him.
This point might actually be a better time to reveal any secret proof of WMDs.
Once Dubya gets approval from Congress, he then talks to the UN and tells them he has all the authority he needs. He is going to defend America and there are only 2 things they can do.
1. nothing
2. like it
That would be my preference also, But I get a bad feeling that Al Qaeda would like to link up with the Pali's and attack Israel. That would bring the U.S. in support of Israel and Iran in behind the the Pali's. Quickly followed by the Saudi's and the rest of the Muslim nations.
I don't think they are going to let us pick them off on nation at a time.