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It's the Demography, Stupid The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.
Opinion Journal ^ | January 4, 2006 | MARK STEYN

Posted on 01/04/2006 4:55:37 AM PST by Toaster tank

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes

(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: aliens; birthrates; civilzations; declineofwest; demographics; demography; immigrantlist; immigration; thewest; west; westerncivilization
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If you'll fall for anything, you'll stand for nothing.
1 posted on 01/04/2006 4:55:38 AM PST by Toaster tank
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To: Toaster tank

Later Read.


2 posted on 01/04/2006 4:58:08 AM PST by marvlus
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To: Toaster tank

The title you created has been changed to the original published title.

Avoid duplication by using only the original published title.


3 posted on 01/04/2006 5:00:41 AM PST by Admin Moderator
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To: Toaster tank
Then September 11 happened. And bizarrely the reaction of just about every prominent Western leader was to visit a mosque: President Bush did, the prince of Wales did, the prime minister of the United Kingdom did, the prime minister of Canada did . . . The premier of Ontario didn't, and so 20 Muslim community leaders had a big summit to denounce him for failing to visit a mosque.

Typical of succumbing to political correctness.

4 posted on 01/04/2006 5:02:37 AM PST by raybbr (ANWR is a barren, frozen wasteland - like the mind of a democrat!)
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To: eyespysomething
Maybe there was a big backlog, it was mosque drive time, prime ministers in gridlock up and down the freeway trying to get to the Sword of the Infidel-Slayer Mosque on Elm Street.

ROFLOL ... This column is well worth reading.

5 posted on 01/04/2006 5:05:28 AM PST by SittinYonder (That's how I saw it, and see it still.)
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To: Toaster tank
'That's what the war's about: our lack of civilizational confidence'

So, Spengler was right after all. Didn't he say that culture is the debased form of civilization? Do we have one debased culture squaring off with another debased culture here?

Anyway, like the man said, '...it all comes down to blood and money in the end..'
6 posted on 01/04/2006 5:06:58 AM PST by SMARTY ("Stay together, pay the soldiers and forget everything else." Lucius Septimus Severus)
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To: Toaster tank

The impending death of western civilation nicely summed up.


7 posted on 01/04/2006 5:08:01 AM PST by Toaster tank
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To: SMARTY

I thought it was good vs eeeeevil.


8 posted on 01/04/2006 5:09:48 AM PST by wita (truthspeaks@freerepublic.com)
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To: raybbr
perhaps if the western leaders had visited destruction upon Mosques then the message would have secured the peace.

In the Gulf war...Gulf war 2....Afghanistan...it was an imperative to avoid destroying mosque....

This false, patently rabid religion respects power and destruction....and we are too timid to survive and they know it.
9 posted on 01/04/2006 5:10:48 AM PST by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" Robert Heinlein)
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To: Toaster tank

Liberals destroyed the west becuase they created the belief that we needed to water the weeds.


10 posted on 01/04/2006 5:10:53 AM PST by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: SMARTY

The first commandment, multiply and replenish the earth. The muslims are obeying, everyone else is neglecting, and if the neglect continues, the results are explained quite nicely by Mark.


11 posted on 01/04/2006 5:12:54 AM PST by wita (truthspeaks@freerepublic.com)
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To: Toaster tank

An interesting read....Steyn always is but his thesis rests on current birh rates and current life expectancy.

Life expectancy will see a radical transformation upward in the next 20-30 years which will ameliorate the problem Steyn ponders.


12 posted on 01/04/2006 5:16:16 AM PST by Neville72 (uist)
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To: Vaquero
The demographics of extinction - totally agree with your assessment.

I read recently that mohammed (the worlds favorite peadophile) took Mecca without a shot being fired.

Tell you what - in the UK we are ready to surrender our culture. Guess that goes for most of Europe too...it is truly pathetic to see us giving in without a fight.

Our new conservative party is probably left of your democrats (not true, but it's a close run thing). We have been robbed of choice. The only ones to benefit will be the muslims and (in the short term) our neofascist parties.

Not good, not good at all.
13 posted on 01/04/2006 5:21:04 AM PST by vimto (Life isn't a dry run)
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To: Toaster tank

but I agree Britney Spears dresses like a slut: I'm with Mullah Omar on that one. ..... LMAO


14 posted on 01/04/2006 5:22:27 AM PST by showme_the_Glory (No more rhyming, and I mean it! ..Anybody got a peanut.....)
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To: edcoil

"Liberals destroyed the west becuase they created the belief that we needed to water the weeds."......I like that, but it sure shows my/your bias toward certain of our fellow beings.....and a real lack of the classic-- I feel your pain....;^)


15 posted on 01/04/2006 5:23:37 AM PST by litehaus
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To: Toaster tank
Time to read Parkinson's East and West again.
16 posted on 01/04/2006 5:24:04 AM PST by Rebelbase (Whew! Another year until the cursed green bean casserole strikes again!)
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To: Toaster tank

Bookmarked.


17 posted on 01/04/2006 5:25:48 AM PST by ncountylee (Dead terrorists smell like victory)
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To: Neville72

Not so! Had you read one of his other articles explaining how difficult it might be for an older population to effectively fight a younger population you would understand, but then possibly I'm missing your point.

How would a greater life expectancy not effect both populations and thus be a wash in the numbers game where birth rate and survival rate at birth and the first 10 yrs or so be the controlling statistics.

If all Muslim children could become homicide bombers that might help, or half of them became crispy critters, or the other half had a Christian epiphany, then, maybe.


18 posted on 01/04/2006 5:26:47 AM PST by wita (truthspeaks@freerepublic.com)
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To: Vaquero
We have departed from the historically and practically demonstrated goal of military conflict: "Defeat equals destruction." Now, defeat equals reward from the victor and sympathy from the victor's enemies. It has become an inverted equation.
19 posted on 01/04/2006 5:28:07 AM PST by SMARTY ("Stay together, pay the soldiers and forget everything else." Lucius Septimus Severus)
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To: vimto
I read recently that mohammed (the worlds favorite peadophile) took Mecca without a shot being fired.

Reagan defeated the Soviet Union without a shot.

20 posted on 01/04/2006 5:32:10 AM PST by T. Jefferson
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To: Neville72
Life expectancy will see a radical transformation upward in the next 20-30 years which will ameliorate the problem Steyn ponders.

I've also seen analysis about the dropping world birthrate, and while Muslim rates are highest now, their trajectory is dropping faster than any other group's.

So, if that occurs in tandem with an extension in life expectancy, who knows how things will pan out? I've always found things are never as bad or as good as projected, especially complicated things like these issues.

Plus AIDS is spreading like wildfire through the Muslim world. I've heard that they do a lot of naughty things in private that they condemn in public.
21 posted on 01/04/2006 5:33:51 AM PST by starbase (Understanding Written Propaganda (click "starbase" to learn 22 manipulating tricks!!))
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To: vimto

Now if you still had your GUNS, you might be able to change things........


22 posted on 01/04/2006 5:37:00 AM PST by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" Robert Heinlein)
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To: Neville72

You may be right about an increase in life expectancy. However, all that would mean is that there would be more 90-something baby boomers and 70-something Generation Xers around to witness the Islamicization of Europe and the conversion of the United States and Canada into Third World nations. It is hard to imagine such people as being capable of resistance to young, vigorous Muslims. There are only two effective measures to prevent the fate that Steyn predicts: increasing the birthrate of native Europeans and North Americans and severely curbing immigration from Muslim and Third World nations.


23 posted on 01/04/2006 5:41:40 AM PST by Wallace T.
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To: Toaster tank
creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism--a new Dark Ages.

Bingo.

24 posted on 01/04/2006 5:43:57 AM PST by peyton randolph (<a href="http://clinton.senate.gov/">shrew</a>)
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To: Toaster tank
That's the wonderful thing about multiculturalism: You can choose which side of the war you want to fight on. When the draft card arrives, just tick "home team" or "enemy," according to taste.

Outstanding article. This is just one of the many "zingers" to be found in it. It was hard to decide which one to quote. Must read!

25 posted on 01/04/2006 5:46:15 AM PST by 6ppc
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To: wita

"How would a greater life expectancy not effect both populations and thus be a wash in the numbers game where birth rate and survival rate at birth and the first 10 yrs or so be the controlling statistics."

Well, presumably radical life exention would affect all populations(though the Western, more affluent ones first) but Steyn's thesis is that low birthrate equals EXTINCTION. That's true only if the numbers he's using remain the same. They will not, so his calculus about what the state of things will be like in 2050 is based on a false premise.


26 posted on 01/04/2006 5:48:46 AM PST by Neville72 (uist)
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To: Toaster tank

BTT


27 posted on 01/04/2006 5:48:52 AM PST by RedEyeJack
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To: Vaquero
Now if you still had your GUNS, you might be able to change things........

Consider your back covered, Vaquero.

Checked the zero on two rifles yesterday. BLOAT

28 posted on 01/04/2006 5:50:49 AM PST by CPOSharky (Taxation WITH representation kinda sucks too.)
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To: Toaster tank

Europe could soon be conquered by Islam. Will America be next?
Tony Blankley on how we can stop the global jihad and save Western civilization

The West's Last Chance
by Tony Blankley


Islamic jihadists are far closer than most people realize to taking over Europe. If they do, they'll impose governments there that would threaten the United States far more than Nazi Germany ever did. But there is still hope to save both Europe and America: in The West's Last Chance: Will We Win the Clash of Civilizations?, Tony Blankley explains what we must do now in order to survive the jihadist infiltration and subversion that now threatens Europe's very life.

Link
29 posted on 01/04/2006 5:53:25 AM PST by TheForceOfOne
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To: Toaster tank

I love Steyn and I respect his vision of what is to come...but I am not so certain of the outcome. I dont think Western culture is going to go silently into the night. I think that the farther nations like Germany etc fall into unemployment, economic instability etc etc you will find people becoming more and more radicallized about their sense of survival. As that progresses people significantly less tolerant of "Islam" and in particular muslim immigrants will gain more power not less. I think you will see a radicalization of European nationalism.

I also dont think that Islamic radicals have the patience of their long term vision. As they approach more comfortable population densities their actions such as bomings, rapings, murdering etc etc will become more and more frequent and more and more agressive.

Perhaps its the optimist in me (if you want to call it optimism) but I just dont see people putting up with that iundefinately and just sitting on tehir hands indefinately. eventually it will boil over and those "less tolerant" folks will be elevated to power on platforms that dont involve trotting down to the local mosque to show how tolerant they are.

I see war in Europes future. Who knows what the outcome of that will be..but I definately see war.


30 posted on 01/04/2006 5:55:45 AM PST by Prysson
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To: Neville72

I would certainly agree that we do not know what will be in 5, 10, 15+ years from now, and things do change, and news today is never as good or as bad as some would like it to be.


31 posted on 01/04/2006 5:55:54 AM PST by wita (truthspeaks@freerepublic.com)
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To: Toaster tank

"If anything, the West is awash in an epidemic of self-hate crimes. A commenter on Tim Blair's Web site in Australia summed it up in a note-perfect parody of a Guardian headline: "Muslim Community Leaders Warn of Backlash from Tomorrow Morning's Terrorist Attack." Those community leaders have the measure of us."

"...was arguing that our tolerance of our own tolerance is making us intolerant of other people's intolerance, which is intolerable. And, unlikely as it sounds, this has now become the highest, most rarefied form of multiculturalism. So you're nice to gays and the Inuit? Big deal. Anyone can be tolerant of fellows like that, but tolerance of intolerance gives an even more intense frisson of pleasure to the multiculti masochists. In other words, just as the AIDS pandemic greatly facilitated societal surrender to the gay agenda, so 9/11 is greatly facilitating our surrender to the most extreme aspects of the multicultural agenda."

Just makes me want to scream to the world to wake up and smell the coffee before there's nothing to wake up to, or you don't wake up because some islamofascist has sawed your head off.


32 posted on 01/04/2006 5:57:09 AM PST by visualops (www.visualops.com)
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To: Prysson

War has a unique effect on birth rate.


33 posted on 01/04/2006 5:57:55 AM PST by wita (truthspeaks@freerepublic.com)
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To: Prysson

I would also point out that after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire and the onset of the original Dark Ages the germanic "barbarians" that invaded the collapsing empire and filled the power vaccum werent indoctrinated into what is refered to as Westenr Civilation (at least in so far as Western Civilization is Greco-Roman in its philosophy and instituitonal constructions. But it became so over time and the conquerors absorded teh ideas...I just think that western Civilization is more than just Italians and Germans and French I think it built of ideas and philosophies and institutions the people that live by them come and go with the centuries..empires fall...but the ideas live on.


34 posted on 01/04/2006 6:03:16 AM PST by Prysson
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To: Toaster tank

Someone wrote this book, "Death of the West" a while ago. I dare not speak his name on FR.


35 posted on 01/04/2006 6:04:19 AM PST by satchmodog9 (Most people stand on the tracks and never even hear the train coming)
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To: wita

Yes it does and thats why I think its very hard to predict the furture in terms of demographics. History is full of bizarre demographic shifts..and not just tyhe Baby boom after WWII though that is one significant example of how trends can reverse. I grant Steyn that large decreases in population can have profound impacts but they dont necissarily signal the end of a civilization. In the early Eastern Roman empire plague, war and famine had enormous impacts on the demographics of the empire...indeed more than once it looked like it would collapse but the Bizantine empire lasted another thousand years past the fall of Rome.


36 posted on 01/04/2006 6:09:05 AM PST by Prysson
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To: wita

"I would certainly agree that we do not know what will be in 5, 10, 15+ years from now, and things do change, and news today is never as good or as bad as some would like it to be."



If you get a chance pick up Ray Kurzweil's new book, The Singularity is Near(it was in my public library as of a month ago). It'll give you a whole new perspective on what lies ahead in the next 20-30 years.


37 posted on 01/04/2006 6:13:11 AM PST by Neville72 (uist)
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To: Toaster tank

A long, but excellent read! I highly recommend it.

To all those in America who are bringing up children with the "right" view of the "Western concept," may your numbers increase! It is a measure of our optimism and our belief in the fundamental ideals of our country that we help create our country's future through our children.


38 posted on 01/04/2006 6:17:45 AM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: Neville72

No - look at the math again. Longer life expectancy only delays the onset of things, but does not alter by one iota the inevitable fact that there will be a decline in population if fertility falls below the replacement rate.


39 posted on 01/04/2006 6:17:45 AM PST by Tirian
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To: Toaster tank

Excellent, even for Steyn. Recommended reading.


40 posted on 01/04/2006 6:24:00 AM PST by angkor
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To: 6ppc

The essential question is:

Will we have the courage to put these multiculturist bastards down, not just here & now on this thread, but in our daily thoughts, words and deeds?


41 posted on 01/04/2006 6:25:26 AM PST by Toaster tank
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To: Toaster tank

The other practical question is will we have the foresight to realize that children are our future---not in the lame Klintoon sense, but in terms of (literally) populating our future with the human resources that are equipped to and desirous of maintaining the "Western concept"?

As the article ably demonstrates, "go forth and multiply" is not a bromide to be glossed over.

It's like Patton and his famous quip on letting the other bastard die for his country: shall we let the other bastard fill the world with adults raised to hate and act out of anti-modernism, or will we do what we can to ensure a robust next generation of patriots.

Another baby, please! :-) (Plus, how nice (usually) for children to have more than one sibling, especially when they are adults.)


42 posted on 01/04/2006 6:35:15 AM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: starbase

Life expectancy increases may help the bottom line on population (though, somehow, I doubt it), but having a bunch more elderly people does nothing to solve the problem of ensuring that we have a robust next generation of patriots willing to fight for this country and defend the "Western concept," i.e. freedom.


43 posted on 01/04/2006 6:37:05 AM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: Wallace T.

And native Europeans are not going to start having more children soon because they utterly lack OPTIMISM and LOVE OF COUNTRY.

Think about it: these are two traits that figure deeply, although mostly silently, when people are looking at the out-years of their family.

When these two things are in place, the idea of bringing children into the world is nurtured by a general feeling of hope and that the children one has will have the opportunity to live in freedom and contribute to something that matters.


44 posted on 01/04/2006 6:40:45 AM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: Toaster tank

Perhaps by having that next baby you and spousal unit have been thinking about? :-)


45 posted on 01/04/2006 6:42:23 AM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: starbase

"I've heard that they do a lot of naughty things in private that they condemn in public."

Have you ever been on a flight out of Saudi Arabia? They stockpile extra booze on those flights for the Saudi citizens to get toasted and there are lines to the restrooms so they can change into Western clothing.


46 posted on 01/04/2006 6:43:58 AM PST by takbodan (.)
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To: Toaster tank

In the end we will either fight or submit.


47 posted on 01/04/2006 6:51:17 AM PST by jec41 (Screaming Eagle)
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To: Toaster tank

As Jerry Pournelle repeats, "Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation as the West commits suicide."


48 posted on 01/04/2006 7:01:32 AM PST by jammer
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To: starbase
Plus AIDS is spreading like wildfire through the Muslim world.

One can only hope so.

49 posted on 01/04/2006 7:02:06 AM PST by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: wouldntbprudent
I would have thought that my four (neo-conserv/libitarians in the truest sense) would have been an adequate contribution.
50 posted on 01/04/2006 7:03:19 AM PST by Toaster tank
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