Posted on 01/05/2006 12:09:34 PM PST by EternalHope
ping for your thoughts
A little after your nap reading.
"The probelm though is that many people are going to be skeptical about Iran's capabilities in light of the stories & intelligence which were reported about Iraq which turned out to be erroneous from the recent past."
Which is a major reason the left holds maniacally tight to the talking points, methinks.
That is why the Pres is getting the old wise ones together. The need for action will have to be clear this time, and it will be demanded in no uncertain terms by the Left and the MSM before it is done. Let them think it is their idea.
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"Supposedly" "clandestine"? Well, that's certainly convincing.
In spite of the various propaganda threads that pop up here frequently (and have for years - all by ex-pat followers of the shah, Iran's former despot) there is no real world evidence that the iranians are fed-up to the point of rebellion. Ask any of the shahistas for proof and all you'll get is insults. I'd like to see iran change, the world would be safer for it, but nothing out there tells me it's going to happen.
I saw your post, and replied to it on the ThreatMatrix. I think you're right.
You're the source of the "Bad Moon Rising" metaphor I used here (it seems to fit particularly well in any post about Islam and Iran...).
After thinking about my ThreatMatrix reply a bit more I expanded decided to expand it a little and post this vanity as well.
I think you're right.
Rutles in reply #36 may be on to something.
Assuming the West was suddenly and unexpectedly deprived of Saudi oil, the economy would crumble quickly.
Like I said, I'm just trying to think outside the box. It's almost as if "methinks the madman doth protest too much" when it comes to Israel. It almost seems scripted at this point.
Now, all that said, there would be a very high risk for Iran that we would summarily incinerate Tehran with a nuclear weapon if it looked like we were going to get tossed into an economic black hole. Especially if it became apparent that China would become a kind of "most favored trading partner" with Iran for their oil. OPEC, under these conditions, would also dissolve quickly because every oil producing nation would rush to price their own oil for economic survival.
As for regime change in Iran as a solution, I agree with you. It's time for a little less talk and a lot more action. Unfortunately, we can't wait very much longer. We're at the "put up or shut up" stage.
Nuclear deterrance can make for strange bedfellows, but, frankly, the Iranians have no use for the Arabs, and they're all aware of it.
I did hear it on FNC that W was having a meeting with all the current and former secretaries of state. Whether that signals a doomsday scenario, I don't know. I didn't think that much about it. Secretaries of state, especially appeasers like Madeleine Allbright, are not people he's going to ask for advice regarding war and peace.
But I agree that the situation vis à vis Iran is about to boil over. I don't know that Iran can hit us with NBC. I know they have delivery systems that can hit Israel, as they've demonstrated them very publicly within the past year.
I believe we are going to have to go to war with them, or else capitulate. And there is no capitulation with them. If they get the nuke, they will say, "Get the troops out of Iraq now or face the consequences." Then the cut and runners will have won. Perhaps that is their strategy.
And they would all like to see Israel gone. They think Israel makes the situation too complicated. A "sh!tty" little country as the British Ambassador said a couple of years ago. Let them go to the dogs.
I hadn't thought of that, but I agree. It would be much easier to do, and would have a devasting impact on the U.S. (and the rest of the world). It would be hard to stop.
Cogent thoughts, and prescient as well, I fear.
This may be a "14 Days in October: The Cuban Missile Crisis" kind of showdown. They may think they have us hotied, but they know in their hearts that if George W. Bush says he's going to do something, he will do it. IOW, they might back down. For now.
Islam, like Fascism, must be rooted out and destroyed. Islam must die.
Yeah, they brag about having the facilities spread out. We don't have to hit them all immediately to kill the research program. I agree with you.
IIRC, the Israelis have KC-135s. However, I think any attack on Iran will be a US action. Attacking and destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities is within Israeli capabilities. But that will only lead to Iranian retaliatory attacks unless the United States also participates to destroy the Iranian armed forces' and the Revolutionary Guard's offensive capabilities. Doing this would require a concerted air campaign lasting weeks or months. The United States is the only military power capable of doing that job.
It is the children of the hostage-takers/revolutionaries that are growing more and more discontent with the present regime, and are probably sickened by the present bile emitting from the mouth of Ahmedi-nijad. There was a ping list here a while back documenting the student demonstrations that were taking place. Ominously, I haven't heard a thing from them since Ahmedi-nijad rose to power.
I think you are right that it is definitely a bigger job than is realized by most.
I have read that the Iranians have disbursed their nuclear manufacturing capability to over 300 sites in Iran, many of them underground and well protected.
We may be witness to a conflagration of biblical proportions this year.
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