Eventually they'll get rid of all their state own banks and the private banks will not have this type of problem. And once that happens, i think a "collapse" is very unlikely.
What's more likely is that their own citizens will demand at least, rule of law. If you talk to the average Chinese, he isn't going to complain about of lack of democracy, he's going to bitch about lack of law and enforcement of it. He's going to complain about why certain officials gets preferential treatment under the law.
If they don't get the rule of law in place in the local level (village/city) either via some democratic reforms or judicial revamp, they'll be in serious trouble by 2010. Ironically it's going to be too much wealth that did them in.
The key ingredient in avoiding hardship and conflict, either as a result of a collapse or the result of economic clashes giving way to military ones...is for the Chinese people to be free. It is the Chinese people ultimately who must make this happen as I doubt very seriously that the CCP will realistically do it themselves.
Otherwise...I stick by the time table I gace above. Sometime after 2009-2010 if a demo ir rino occupy the White House. But that's just my opinion.