Iranian Alert - January 11, 2006 - As the world awakens, signs the regime may be fracturing

Regime Change Iran ^ | 1.11.2006 | DoctorZin

[ConsentofGoverned]

"What do you mean 'limited ground action'? One RCT? Two? Where will they come from? Where will the troops needed to hold the territory we take for as long as is necessary come from? When do they leave? And don't underestimate any nation's sudden patriotism when an outside force shows up."
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good points, if it was easy with no down side would have been done by now.
We are left with a radical gov with nukes and global aims to remove western influence from "Islamic nations"
my take on how to remove IRan as a real threat:

1, would not like to go into specific tactics but the next modern war is not heavy with boots on ground - much less manpower than even in Iraq invasion
2. goal is to remove as many top leaders as possible and
destroy offensive capability of military-not form new government it may weaken the mullahs enough to allow moderates to take over- but the goal is removal of nukes and missiles once that is done -that is the end point - Iran(with russian and chinese and french help) will have to fix it's own government. Russia will be on board as will China.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

The encouragement needs to continue, considering much news from the West is filtered out. I have no date set in mind for which "something" should be done. I leave that to the Executive Branch to determine.

I believe the youth can and will rise up. I just wonder if it is possible to help them, either before or after they take a stand. The Persians deserve every help they can get in removing the mullahs.

[monday]

"Virtually all internal regime changes require intense international support."

This is not true. The American and French revolutions needed no significant outside support. The communist revolution in Russia had no outside support.

Indeed for a successful regime change outside support is often poison. With the support of foreign powers, revolutionaries are often seen as traitors to the homeland rather than patriots and as such lose the support of the people.

In Islamic countries this is especially true if the populace suspects the revolutionaries are westernized and would forsake Islamic principles in favor of western culture.

[MEGoody]

"The world" i.e. the UN, France, etc etc aren't going to do anything about Iran or N. Korea but bluster. Once again, it will be up to the U.S. to try to solve the problem, and once again, they will whine about our unilateral action.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

The American Revolution didn't need or use the outside support of the French?

[monday]

"The American Revolution didn't need or use the outside support of the French?"

It was pretty insignificant, as I stated in my original post.

[Rutles4Ever]

A regime change is not going to be of the deomcratic variety. The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Ahmadinejad might get ousted, but Rafsanjani and his ilk would probably return to power.

[mjaneangels@aolcom]

"I'm sure this has them really scared. At most it means that if the US and UK decide to actually do something, maybe France won't get in the way."

Yes, with emphasis on maybe.

[PhilDragoo]

This year will see the end of the Iranian nuclear program and the demullification of Tehran.

The UN and the French will not figger in it.

[lentulusgracchus]

A regime change is not going to be of the deomcratic variety. The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Ahmadinejad might get ousted, but Rafsanjani and his ilk would probably return to power.

Then the best we could hope for is that the 13th-Century Wing and the 8th-Century Wing of the Mullah Party fall on one another and teach each other to pieces.

Leaving the Pahlavis to walk back in, pick up the pieces, and return Iran to at least the 20th Century.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

Good related work from VDH:

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200601130837.asp

[DoctorZIn]

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