Iranian Alert - January 11, 2006 - As the world awakens, signs the regime may be fracturing

Regime Change Iran ^ | 1.11.2006 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Top News Story

As the world awakens, signs the regime may be fracturing as it prepares for a confrontation.

Iran Breaks The Seals and the World Wakes Up.

• Reuters reported that the U.N. nuclear watchdog confirmed that Iran had broken U.N. seals at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant.
• The Financial Times reported that European diplomats said an emergency meeting could be held this week.
• The New York Times reported that the White House said if Iran continues on its current nuclear course, it will leave the international community no choice but to refer Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for possible actions.
• The Times reported that Jack Straw, the UK Foreign Secretary, warned the Iranians today that they were "pushing their luck."
• Bloomberg reported that French President Jacques Chirac said Iran and North Korea risk making a ``serious error'' by pursuing its nuclear activities.
• Yahoo News reported that Germany's foreign minister said Tehran had "crossed lines which it knew would not remain without consequences."
• Spiegel Online reported that German newspapers, both right and left, have given up on negotiations with Iran.
• Kuwait News Agency reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday expressed concern about Tehran's decision to resume enrichment of uranium.
• Turkish Daily News reported that Turkey's ambassador to the United States said that Iran was "irreversibly" heading for acquisition of nuclear weapons.
• Telegraph reported on the predictably lame response from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
• James S. Robbins, National Review Online reported that there is a buzz at Foggy Bottom - low level, but growing - that maybe it would not be so bad if Iran went nuclear. A very bad idea.
• The Times reported that Iran was likely to be referred to the UN Security Council for punitive sanctions by the end of the month.

The Air Crash... Sabotage?

• Mehran Riazaty reported that the air crash could be an inside job. Photos suggest a possible internal explosion brought down the aircraft. Before and after photos. More Photos.
• Stratfor published an analysis of the air crash saying it could indicate foul play aimed at undermining Ahmadinejad's power base and influence.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that the eleven top Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders died yesterday in a plane crash came as tensions among the ruling mullahs are rising.
• Iranian Student News Agency published photos of the military commanders that died in yesterdays air crash. Plus reports by Ken Timmerman and Dan Darling.

The Regime Prepares for a confrontation.

• Iran Press News reported that 0il revenues to be taken out of foreign banks and transferred back to Iran, in anticipation of possible freezing of Iran's assets in foreign banks.
• Iran Focus reported that Rafsanjani said: “Our enemies are poised to take advantage of the situation inside the country to begin another mischief against Iran, but we don’t know where this mischief will begin.”

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran:

• Daniel Pipes, Frontpagemag.com provided a report on the foreign policy implications of the expectation by the "faithful" in Iran that anticipates the soon return of the 12th Imam. Leading Iranian thinkers to conclude that if "the Mahdi will come in two, three, or four years, why should I be soft? Now is the time to stand strong, to be hard.”
• Iran Press News reported that talk in Iran of a hotel being built in time for the 12th Imam's reemergence.
• Iran Press News reported that Islamic Republic of Iran is next to last on industrial growth index of Mid East countries.
• Teamsters.org reported that the Teamster's President Hoffa called on Iranian President to release striking bus drivers. The Unions are finally joining the struggle.
• Iran Press News reported that all of the Islamic regimes government employees live under the poverty line.
• Iran Press News reported that a 17-year-old Nazanin was sentenced to death for protecting her chastity against three rapists.
• Iran Press News reported on more executions in Iran.
• Iran Press News reported that a female member of the Organization for Human Rights in Kurdistan savagely beaten and kidnapped.
• Iran Press News reported that cameras are being installed around Iranian universities in order to tighten control over students.
• And finally, The Middle East Media Research Institute published the first in a series of papers that will include translations of statements by members of the Iranian regime and Iranian leaders on various issues. Plus a cartoon.

[ConsentofGoverned]

"What do you mean 'limited ground action'? One RCT? Two? Where will they come from? Where will the troops needed to hold the territory we take for as long as is necessary come from? When do they leave? And don't underestimate any nation's sudden patriotism when an outside force shows up."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.....................
good points, if it was easy with no down side would have been done by now.
We are left with a radical gov with nukes and global aims to remove western influence from "Islamic nations"
my take on how to remove IRan as a real threat:

1, would not like to go into specific tactics but the next modern war is not heavy with boots on ground - much less manpower than even in Iraq invasion
2. goal is to remove as many top leaders as possible and
destroy offensive capability of military-not form new government it may weaken the mullahs enough to allow moderates to take over- but the goal is removal of nukes and missiles once that is done -that is the end point - Iran(with russian and chinese and french help) will have to fix it's own government. Russia will be on board as will China.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

The encouragement needs to continue, considering much news from the West is filtered out. I have no date set in mind for which "something" should be done. I leave that to the Executive Branch to determine.

I believe the youth can and will rise up. I just wonder if it is possible to help them, either before or after they take a stand. The Persians deserve every help they can get in removing the mullahs.

[monday]

"Virtually all internal regime changes require intense international support."

This is not true. The American and French revolutions needed no significant outside support. The communist revolution in Russia had no outside support.

Indeed for a successful regime change outside support is often poison. With the support of foreign powers, revolutionaries are often seen as traitors to the homeland rather than patriots and as such lose the support of the people.

In Islamic countries this is especially true if the populace suspects the revolutionaries are westernized and would forsake Islamic principles in favor of western culture.

[MEGoody]

"The world" i.e. the UN, France, etc etc aren't going to do anything about Iran or N. Korea but bluster. Once again, it will be up to the U.S. to try to solve the problem, and once again, they will whine about our unilateral action.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

The American Revolution didn't need or use the outside support of the French?

[monday]

"The American Revolution didn't need or use the outside support of the French?"

It was pretty insignificant, as I stated in my original post.

[Rutles4Ever]

A regime change is not going to be of the deomcratic variety. The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Ahmadinejad might get ousted, but Rafsanjani and his ilk would probably return to power.

[mjaneangels@aolcom]

"I'm sure this has them really scared. At most it means that if the US and UK decide to actually do something, maybe France won't get in the way."

Yes, with emphasis on maybe.

[PhilDragoo]

This year will see the end of the Iranian nuclear program and the demullification of Tehran.

The UN and the French will not figger in it.

[lentulusgracchus]

A regime change is not going to be of the deomcratic variety. The mullahs aren't going anywhere. Ahmadinejad might get ousted, but Rafsanjani and his ilk would probably return to power.

Then the best we could hope for is that the 13th-Century Wing and the 8th-Century Wing of the Mullah Party fall on one another and teach each other to pieces.

Leaving the Pahlavis to walk back in, pick up the pieces, and return Iran to at least the 20th Century.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

Good related work from VDH:

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200601130837.asp

[DoctorZIn]

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