I don't think old Osama's completely lost the war, but he's completely lost his mind.
I think the Osama tape has shown up, because his #2 man, Al Zawahiri, who normally would be the public face of Al Qaeda via videotape, is dead. That is why Al Qaeda chose now to release the tape of Bin Laden. If Zawahiri were alive, they should be showing a videotape of him, but it ain't going to happen, because he's deader than a doornail. The proof will be in the pudding. Let's see if another video of Zawahiri shows up in the near future. Want to place your bets? May bet is that there won't be one.