I think Dubya had every reason to think Republicans would trust his judgement on the Miers nomination. Whether unintended or because Rove knew the GOP base would need an Alito even after Roberts, Pryor, Brown, and Owen, the Miers nomination made Alito’s confirmation easier. The Administration has done a great job vetting Alito. They picked a likable well-spoken man with a sharp mind. No Anita Hills. No illegal nanny, but how do you get Alito past a rat filibuster? Alito’s strength is his judicial experience. Frame the debate with a candidate the rats can attack as unqualified and come back with Alito. I don’t know if Dubya would ask Miers to be a sacrificial nominee but I have no doubt he could command that loyalty. The rats were beat to the battle by GOP pundits. The fact that Republicans torpedoed Miers helped to suppress the rat base support. They were left with the image and words of Reid gushing over an unqualified stealth conservative. Now when the conservative boogieman ScAlito is at the door, the rats say they won’t filibuster? The rat base is really angry and this will hurt them.
If the rats do not filibuster Alito their base will be angry at the rats and Republicans. Republicans will be energized to support the GOP financially for our success. Rat donations would dry up.
If the rats do filibuster and Republicans nuke it, the rat base will only be angry with Republicans. The treacherous rat filibuster and our successful victory will energize Republicans. Our donor funds are likely to be larger if the rats filibuster and we nuke it, but the rats will lose less base support than if they don’t filibuster. This outcome gives Republicans the additional benefit of making future court appointments easier, however it effectively removes an issue that has been advantageous to us in the past. This would also probably push the rats into full impeachment mode.
If the rats were successful in thwarting Alito’s confirmation it would be a huge crushing blow to Republicans. It would start a flood of money into the rats to continue the fight, and it would result in a NYT 3-inch headline: BUSH LAME DUCK! That is what scares me.
Looking at the possible outcomes I think the rats will see filibuster as politically advantageous in at least the short term and it could pay off big time if they stop Alito.
I heard Sen. Allen say Alito will be confirmed and if we have to nuke a filibuster “Bring it on.” I heard the same thing from Frist a few months ago just before McCain pulled the rug out from under him.
I agree, if Alito were torpedoed things would go as you describe. When I see the articles here about how Alito is just about a done deal, I cringe.