It will be Pittsburgh v. Philadelphia...
Exactly. And since P'burg's fraud voter machine is not as good as Philly's, Swann will have to work harder than Fast Eddie. BUT, we remember the stealth raise and the tax increase and the gambling handouts to politically-connected friends - Fast Eddie has a lot of fast talking to do.
Not quite as cut and dried as that. The population of Philly is 1.5 million and of Pittsburgh, 334,000. Rendell beat Fisher in 2002 by 8%, but Fisher was an exceedingly bland candidate.
Swann can win if he gets a strong turnout from the PA conservative "T" in his favor and a swing of a few percent of the black vote in either Pittsburgh or Philly. Pittsburgh alone won't make the difference. Swann has to get the conservative base energized and eager to turn out for him. He'll have to acquit himself well during the campaign for that to occur. I think conservatives really want to get behind him.
Kerry only won PA by 2% in 2004 and it was that close because the conservative "T" really turned out for Bush (word was the Amish were even voting which is unusual). But Democrats in the cities turned out as well. Assuming the conservatives turn out in good numbers, then a few percent swing in the cities will make a difference.
No, it will be Pittsburgh and the rest of the state versus Philadelphia. Swann will easily get the Republican stronghold Central PA exurbs and rural areas. Rendell's machine can muster votes out of thin air in Philly, though. They had more votes cast there in the 2004 Presidential election than the census bureau claims live in the city.
Swann is very articulate and has done his homework on the issues. Scranton couldn't hold a candle to him, which is why he dropped out.
Rendell signed an extremely unpopular lawmakers' and judges' pay raise that they eventually had to roll back due to taxpayer outrage. People here are just chomping at the bit to kick all incumbents out right now. What is working against Santorum is working for Swann.