Replies

Thanks LD.

Short and brief this time.

the stability of the Saudi regime would be one of either immediate collapse or, alternately, enough secular/political clout to perform some Turkish style internal reforms.

I'm betting on the former as the House of Saud are already hated enough in the ummah, even by the different salafi factions themselves so they lack backing and the clout of the ummah... hence their pact with the ulema in the first place.

...if we militarily assault Saudi’s directly, a-la-Iraq (even with similar military success), all we would succeed in doing, would be uniting the various Islamic fractions around the world against us in a world-wide confrontation.

Hence IMHO, the need to back Hashemite armies and engage on an intense behind the scenes campaign to humiliate and delegitimize the entire Saud/wahabbi establishment.

All in all, between us, we have two workable plans here (and we've thought about our backups).. I'll be very happy if either bears fruit.

Take care, and have a great weekend.

My turn for a long post…

Hence IMHO, the need to back Hashemite armies and engage on an intense behind the scenes campaign to humiliate and delegitimize the entire Saud/wahabbi establishment.

From my earlier post # 88: Additionally, in terms of the current conflict, few could argue that the Islamic radicals could not be fairly easily dealt with militarily and/or politically, were it not for the fact that the Islamic world controls a significant portion of the planet’s petroleum resources (a huge economic lever).

Although possible, I do not see the Jordanians under the Hashemites invading Saudi Arabia in the near term, if at all, absent an internal, violent Saudi Arabian revolution. Additionally, even if they did invade, their military campaign would probably not be a short one, even with an external coalition’s help. Consequently, there would be a huge disruption to the world’s oil supply (probably created by the Saudi’s themselves) that would reek havoc on, not just the US, but the entire world’s economy.

The world (most especially, Europe and Japan, literally for the sake of national survival) would be forced to intervene on the side of stability and continuity of oil supplies, i.e., the current Saudi regime. Additionally, the pressure on the US to do likewise, both, from our international trading partners and internal sources, would be irresistible. The current Saudi regime, both knows this, and strategically depends upon it.

From my earlier post # 101: …deposing the Saudis and their support for Wahabbism in favor of the Hashemite dynasty, I see it as possibly desirable in the short term but unrealistically misguided for the long term.

Orchestrating a clandestine campaign against the Saudi’s/Wahabbi’s with intent of fomenting an internal, successful rebellion would be next to impossible.

From my earlier post # 144: The chief problem is the one of [the US] being the “invisible puppet master” ...

The Saudi’s internal/external intelligence apparatus would, most certainly, detect such an effort and trace its source quickly. No doubt, the Saudi’s would, then, manipulate oil resources as economic punishment. Furthermore, there seems to be no shortage in the US of unscrupulous, political opportunists who are willing to “leak” anything, of any classification, for short term political gain regardless of adverse impact on US national security. Public knowledge of such a formerly, clandestine overthrow effort would generate huge, international political and economic repercussions. Additionally, not only internal, opposition, political party opportunism, but the Fifth Column, PC crowd, would force its abandonment and, most probably, political defeat of the sponsoring political group. Consequently, once such a clandestine overthrow effort become known, its impact would be totally counter productive.

Therefore, your proposal of …back[ing] Hashemite armies and engage[ing] on an intense behind the scenes campaign to humiliate and delegitimize the entire Saud/wahabbi establishment seems very implausible, if not completely impossible.

From my earlier post # 88: … the obvious economic warfare approach is to remove their “lever.”

To achieve “removing their economic lever,” we must overcome a number of obstacles. First, the Fifth Column, PC crowd/environmental extremists along with their media partners must immediately be neutered in their opposition to greater US energy independence. After sufficiently muting opposition, in the short term, rapid, oil exploration/drilling in ANWR, off the coasts of California and western Florida must proceed immediately. More oil refineries must be built and older ones updated. Additionally, development of shale oil technology must be vigorously pursued and exploitation of coal deposits with cleaner combustion technology must also be vigorously pursued. Slightly longer term, construction/commissioning of numerous, nuclear power plants must be rapidly accelerated. Finally, the development and economic viability of alternative energy sources such as hydrogen, solar, wind, wave, etc., must be pursued as well.

The above proposals are not near term solutions. However, they appear to be the only politically and economically viable alternatives to the current world situation that will not precipitate a worldwide, military conflict and/or international economic collapse. Once the “economic lever” is removed from the Islamists, their particular brand of violent jihad will become a militarily manageable nuisance rather than a worldwide threat.

Have a nice weekend.