US seeks Georgian help for Iran strike

JPost ^ | 2/20/06 | Jpost

[freedom44]

American officials have been quietly probing whether Georgia, situated just northwest of Iran, will be willing to allow Washington to use its military bases and airfields in the event of a military conflict with Teheran, The Jerusalem Post has been told.

The Americans have been putting out feelers, a high-ranking Georgian government foreign affairs official told the Post, in advance of a possible military strike to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear weapons capability.

American reports in recent months, speculating about the possibility of a campaign against Iran because of the failure of diplomatic efforts to thwart a potential nuclear weapons program, have suggested that sustained military action, rather than a single strike, may be required given the number of Iranian nuclear facilities, their divergent locations and Iranian defenses.

Georgian government officials said that Tbilisi fears harsh Iranian military retaliation against the Georgian republic if US forces were to use its territory as a base for strikes against Iran, but nonetheless may feel obligated to accede to such a request, given the country's heavy reliance on US aid and support. The US maintains its own military bases in Georgia.

While the Americans have been testing the waters lately in this direction, the source indicated, no official request of this kind has yet been made.

Georgia is also worried about the possibility of civil unrest, citing the strong opposition by its Muslim minority to the country's participation in the war in Iraq, where there is a limited Georgian military contingent.

Military collaboration with the US would also have "a most negative effect" on relations between Moscow and Tbilisi, which remains strained since the election of Georgia's US-educated president, Mikhail Saakashvili, in 2004.

Saakashvili is considered one of the most consistent US supporters in the post-Soviet bloc and enjoys solid American backing. Indeed, Saakashvili is often accused by Moscow of maintaining an "American outpost in the region."

[steveegg]

Interesting. Looks like things are moving along.

[bobjam]

I don't imagine our NATO ally Turkey would let us operate from there. Of course if the French and Germans are on board with us (a distinct possibility), they could pressure the Turks with EU membership.

[freedom44]

I'm pretty surprised how tough the French have been through all of this.

[ARCADIA]

I'm pretty surprised how tough the French have been through all of this.

They are a bit slow; but, the big car/neighborhood burn a few months back must have finally warmed their bottoms.

[bubman]

I believe this will be a NATO exercise. Make Iraq and Israel part of NATO and you got you get Iran in a Pickle!

[rahbert]

psyching out the opponents..

[RouxStir]

"worried about the possibility of civil unrest, citing the strong opposition by its Muslim minority"

Georgia needs to take care of the muslim problem while it is still a minority.

[Sax]

Yeah, this 'on purpose' indirect release of info will probably just be used by Iran to continue to whip up the fervor. The Iranian leadership will most certainly view this (correctly or incorrectly) as a feint.

[RightWhale]

It might be disinformation, but Iran must view it as possible and make some military reorientation in that direction. Iran has a severe problem since they can and must expect attack from all directions.

[A. Pole]

Military collaboration with the US would also have "a most negative effect" on relations between Moscow and Tbilisi, which remains strained since the election of Georgia's US-educated president, Mikhail Saakashvili, in 2004.

What about the "negative effect on relations between" Teheran and Tbilisi?!

It is Iran where Georgia looks for the alternative energy sources to gain some inpedendence from Russia. Iran already delivered millions cubic meters of gas this winter.

[Sax]

Iran knows that they cannot effectively repel any determined attack by the US or Israel. They simply don't believe it's coming. They view the US as over stretched and over committed politically and militarily and are taking full advantage of the situation. They will continue to push the envelope and gain power incrementally, because they can.

[RightWhale]

The leadership of Iran appears to feel they are controlling events, and in a way they are. If they don't threaten to nuke Israel, they will probably be allowed nuclear weapons. But they continue to threaten Israel and others. Their control of events can only bring on the attack, that is the extent of their control. But it is like an irritated scab they must scratch. Or an enormous penchant for self-destruction in the terms of the day.

[ARCADIA]

They simply don't believe it's coming. They view the US as over stretched and over committed politically and militarily and are taking full advantage of the situation.

Good politics is about communicating clearly enough so that you do not actually have to shoot them all. Perhaps we are not sending our message clearly enough. A short raid or missile launch, to demonstrate how easily a few of their heavily defended strategic sites can be made to dissappear, can get us all back to a meaningful discussion of peace and a new democratic Iranian government.

[steveegg]

I'm pretty surprised how tough the French have been through all of this.

I get the feeling the Frogs want it to be their nukes detonated over and in Tel Aviv.

[A. Pole]

A short raid or missile launch, to demonstrate how easily a few of their heavily defended strategic sites can be made to dissappear, can get us all back to a meaningful discussion

What if such strike FAILS to destroy these few sites? What message would it send?

[steveegg]

What if such strike FAILS to destroy these few sites? What message would it send?

That's why, unlike Desert One, you apply overwhelming force to all-but-ensure success.

[Sax]

Yep, the interesting part is Europe's increasing interest in Radical Islam. France has been burnt (literally) and the rest of Old Europe is getting rather uncomfortable with the violence spurred by the cartoon heard around the world. The thought of being just over 2000 miles away from an angry Islamic State with nuclear missiles has seemed to make them pay a little closer attention.

We will see how much they hold on to their appeasement mentality. Iran's sure betting that this old European leopard won't be changing it's spots any time soon.

However, if Europe jumped on board whole-heartedly with the US and Israel, Iran would probably change it's tune right quick.

[ARCADIA]

What if such strike FAILS to destroy these few sites? What message would it send?

Notice I said "made to disappear". I am not talking about a tactical attack to damage and impair production; but, something on a scale which will make it impossible for future forensic archaeologist to confirm that the site ever existed. The more violent and overwelhming the attack, the more likely that it will get the message across to spared many lives on both sides.

[A. Pole]

The only weapons which can assure such result are nuclear boms. Do you realise what political consequences would be?

And even such strike could fail if Iranians moved their stuff a few miles. They had and have plenty of time to prepare.