Fault East Of (SF) Bay Area 'Locked And Loaded'

The Guardian (UK) ^ | 3-25-2006 | Scott Lindlaw

[blam]

Fault East of Bay Area 'Locked and Loaded'

Saturday March 25, 2006 7:31 PM

By SCOTT LINDLAW

Associated Press Writer

HAYWARD, Calif. (AP) - New cracks appear in Elke DeMuynck's ceiling every few weeks, zigzagging across her living room, creeping toward the fireplace, veering down the wall. Month after month, year after year, she patches, paints and waits.

``It definitely lets you know your house is constantly shifting,'' DeMuynck said. So do the gate outside that swings uselessly 2 inches from its latch, the strange bulges in the street and the geology students who make pilgrimages to her cul-de-sac.

DeMuynck could throw her paint brush from her front stoop and hit the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.

It's the geologists, emergency planners and historians who seem to do most of the worrying, even in this year of heightened earthquake awareness for the 100th anniversary of San Francisco's Great Quake of April 18, 1906.

Several faults lurk beneath this region, including the San Andreas Fault on the west side of the Bay area, but geologists say the parallel Hayward on the Bay's east side is the most likely to snap next.

``It is locked and loaded and ready to fire at any time,'' said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Tom Brocher.

The Hayward Fault runs through one of the country's most densely populated areas; experts say 2 million people live close enough to be strongly shaken by a big quake.

It slices the earth's crust along a 50-mile swath of suburbia east of San Francisco, from exclusive hilltop manors overlooking the bay to Hayward's humble flatlands...

[trubluolyguy]

Yeah, but they obviously don't need our military to bail them out.

---

Of course not, they wouldn't want to be seen as hypocrites now would they?

[noblejones]

>>
And we criticize New Orleans for building in a flood zone.
<<

Nah, that IS dumber. The French knew they were building in a sinking swamp, but were too drunk to care.

Early settlers in California didn't undertsand the fearsome potential of earthquakes. Even so, it is possible to build earthquake resistant structures -- but skyscrapers are probably really stupid ideas. California has also been retrofitting older structures quite actively since the seventies while folks in New Orleans hijacked federal dollars to build casinos and support centers for transsexuals.

Only time will tell, but the bay area is way overdue for centuries of high seismic activity.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Surprised they didn't consider the "locked" (jammed part) of the San Andreus fault just north of LA the most dangerous: It hasn't moved in a longer period of time, and has ALL of LA's water supply pipes and most of its power lines crossing it.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Pretty picture: How does it differ when a quake hits?

[A message]

Don't have to tell me.

34 years in the Midwest and I had never seen a tornado or the start of one. Lots of sirens yes but not the real thing.

But I'm sure those people in Xenia , Ohio whose city was leveled by a F5 tornado back on April 3rd, 1974 probably have a different take on those tornado chances.

As I said there is a chance pretty much anywhere one lives something unpleasant can come down the street.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Also, you can't really "move" a harbor from its surrounding lands that create the sheltered bay: SF and Oakland can't move, but NOLA has no particular reason to be in that particular part of the MIssip River, other than its closeness to Lake Pontchartrain. But, cross-shipping from NOLA to the Lake didn't work out like the French expected anyway.

Another French failure, like Haiti. And France. And the rest of their colonies in Africa.

[Plutarch]

The Hayward Fault runs right through California Memorial Stadium. Could make for some real Cal football excitement one day.

[bert]

....Any freepers in the area? ....

Synchro I think

[Strategerist]

The San Andreas itself is much further from densely populated areas than the Hayward, which runs right through them (though people are rapidly moving further out, closer to the San Andreas.)

Overall there's been an effort by geologists to reduce the focus on the "Big One" on the Southern San Andreas (and they really tend to avoid the term anymore, as it's misleading) and more on threats closer to populated areas...many of which, especially in Los Angeles, have been recently discovered.

The San Andreas is no longer the worst-case scenario.

[A message]

I'd rather have a lotta little ones than one BIG ONE!

Ditto!

[BW2221]

"Move. Looks like San Franfreako might be getting the Sodom and Gomorrah treatment soon."

Couldn't happen to a better place. Let's just hope Congress isn't is session when it happens and that Pelosi, Boxer and Feinstein are home.

[A message]

The difference is, most Califorians are generally more prepared when it comes to earthquakes and emergency kits.

We try to keep a weeks supply of water and plenty of canned goods on hand. As well as material to cook the food and other essentials.

The wife is very good about that and I give her compliments.

[A message]

Sure there is the heat. But I have a fellow worker living in Phoenix and he was commenting on all the dust that causes him allergies when it has not rained for a long while.

Here are some Arizona historical photographs depicting dust storms and monsoon conditions. Enjoy these pictures of Phoenix monsoon storms!

I'll pass but Thanks for the offer.

[AD from SpringBay]

Mama goverment better fire up her $2,000 plastic card machine.

[NormsRevenge]

We live at the south end of the Hayward, and just down the hills from the Calaveras, the San Andreas is quite a few miles west of here..

Bay Area Earthquake Probabilities

[NormsRevenge]

TOUR OF THE HAYWARD FAULT

http://www.mcs.csuhayward.edu/~shirschf/tour-1.html

Lots of maps and info

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/hf_maps.html

[Stayingawayfromthedarkside]

Yeah, those allergies get to me too. The wind can be dangerous around here once inwhile. Last summer we had a microburst knock down trees and power lines in a park right near our house. Our power was out for a few hours. We have a few isolated incidents for the most part. I love the winters here. I used to live in SoCal. So, I know what earthquakes feel like. I have never been faced with a tornado, They look really scary. I hope the big one doesn't hit anytime soon.

[musicman]

"The Hayward Fault runs right through California Memorial Stadium."

That would create a few "problems" durring a game.I hope that never happens.

But OTOH, IMHO if there is gonna be an earthquake in SF, I would rather see a 20ft wide fault split the left side of the batters box at Pac Bell Park's first home game of the 2006 season durring Barry Bonds first at bat.

....OK,....after rethinking it. I really WOULDN'T want a 20 ft wide fault split......Make it 30FT so Barry's head and ego will fit in it.....

[A message]

I love the winters here.

I understand winter, early spring and late fall can be down right pleasant there.

[Williams]

True, but the Mid Atlantic region doesn't have much in the way of tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. Ditto New England?