Posted on 03/28/2006 12:11:14 PM PST by presidio9
If you've bought gasoline in the last few days knows, you know that prices at the pump are on the rise again.
Trilby Lundberg, publisher of the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations, told CBS Radio News the average price of all grades combined is up nearly 15 cents over the last two weeks, to $2.52. That's 40 cents higher than last year at this time.
Tom Kloza, an oil analyst for the Oil Price information Service told The Early Show co-anchor Rene Syler Tuesday, "This is pretty much typical for this time of year. It seems a little worse because we're starting from higher numbers.
"But, generally, wholesale prices go up by about 55 percent from, let's say, mid-February to late May — and, as bad as this may seem, we haven't gone up that much right now. I'm afraid this may be the last time you see $2.50, or less than that, for about five months."
Are we looking at $3 a gallon gasoline this summer?
"I don't think we are, unless there's a calamity," Kloza says. But, he warns, "there's a pretty good chance for some calamities this year. This is going to be the summer of hurricane fears, the summer of hurricane worries.
"Oil prices are established by traders, they're established by speculators, and they're established by people who react to fear. And there's no question that this spring and summer is going to be a summer of fear about the tropics. So, I think, without any hurricane impacts or anything geopolitically in Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela, we're looking at $2.50 to $2.75 on average for the next five months.
"If we get an event, that brings $3 and all the other numbers into play. An event would, of course, be a tropical system making landfall near (oil-producing) hardware," or a problem in any of the major oil-producing nations.
"A lot of the gasoline price and a lot of the crude oil price is established by the investment community," Kloza explains. "The investment community is worried about a geopolitical hot spot. It's also worried about refineries breaking down, because we really have no margin of error.
"That investment community is not likely to be selling, particularly since the real peak driving season in the days where we use 9.5, 9.6 million barrels a day is well ahead of us. It's going to be a tough period to go through."
What can we do to help reduce the impact on our pocketbooks?
"Everyone should realize there's really no downside to conservation," Kloza said. "You might not necessarily need to cancel your summer vacations. You probably should take them.
"Measured in personal disposable income, gasoline is still pretty much a bargain, but pay attention.
"I think if you can cut back a little bit, that's a prudent measure, whether we're talking about gasoline or we're talking about appetite for other things. There is a lot of excessive consumption out there. It holds true in gasoline and holds true in a lot of other elements."
Used SUVs are dropping in price, the larger they are the faster they are dropping.
after amnesty, if each illegal is required to bring with them two gallons of gas, we'll be just fine.
Well I can say this much, if the Gas prices are still outrageous in October/November there will be a lot of politicans looking for new jobs.
Great points. You must be new around here...:-)
Only if investors start getting FEARS about possible FEARS in the future, and that causes them to have FEARS. In that case, I FEAR that it might happen, I am AFRAID to say.
Still under $2.60 in the Peoples Republik of Madistan, WI.
But, never fear! Governor "Diamond Jim" Doyle is forcing Ethanol down our throats, so pretty soon the Government will be paying ME to drive my car because 'Corn is King!'
That's how it works, right? *Smirk*
Great post. Nailed it.
1. Get a smaller car and/or more fuel efficient car.
2. Move closer to work, even though it may mean a smaller house.
Until then, quit whining. It annoys the rest of us.
"Gasoline has the amazing ability to turn otherwise reasonable people into raving Marxists."
You forgot about Wal-Mart. It's does the same thing to some people. And some Wal-Mart's sell gas too. Double chance to bask Capitalism.
Look at how the anti (illegal) immigration people want the government to throw good money after bad on that issue.
Look at how Bush created a Prescription Drug entitlement.
Yes, we need more people who realize that they can take care of themselves and that they do not need a big brother.
"I'm sure your wages are going up in a similar manor"
Due to the shortage of IT workers, so far they are, thank you.
Looks like its just you and me - cover my back, I'll take point.
And build an ocean current energy plant in the Gulf Stream. And harness the geothermal energy of Yellowstone Park. I have written all my leerless feeders on these topics - response? Form letters.
"more than often wrong. " The Lundberg family busines is the most quoted on gasoline prices. I'm under the impression that their batting average is close to the one claimed by Rush.
the specultors. . . . not at the corporate offices of Exxon, Cheveron, etc.
What makes you think that the corporations are not the speculators? I'll bet they are a major force at the margins for short term profits ... and to hedge their long term bets.
But speculation can only have a short term impact. Long term trends are dictated by government overregulation that requires so many different formulas that can each be sold in a limited area, and by regulations that prevent new refinery capacity, and by taxation, and of course by supply and demand.
Well, that's good. For most people it doesn't work out quite like that.
excellent post. logical, factual, great because I agree with it.
So you "know" that folks are making $$$ due to collusion, etc. And you sit on the sidelines complaining....interesting...
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