The refineries did convert to gasoline earlier this year because of the warm weather. But don't try to use logic on the oil market. I have the crude oil futures contract on my screen. I watch it every day. Today it is up almost $2 because "traders want to get in before the new ETF comes out, possibly next week (according to WSJ)". The ETF is a fund that will allow Joe MutualFund to buy crude oil shares--like stocks. They (the speculators) think there will be a price spike when the ETF comes out. Maybe, but I don't trade oil--too risky. And actually, the traders will probably let the public buy into the ETF and then drop it (taking their money).
The whole oil price run-up has been a crock from the start. Global demand forecasts have been falling for the last year and inventories of oil and gasoline are at 5-7 year highs. So the price is down, right?
The bastard oil speculators (hedge funds) are to blame and nobody wants to address the problem.
Great post. Nailed it.