Posted on 04/01/2006 9:01:52 PM PST by CAWats
Not too long ago, ethanol had about as much street cred as hemp and cold fusion.
Though it had its backers, the substance wasn't widely seen as a viable energy source. Then world oil supplies tightened, fuel prices reared and U.S. lawmakers passed an energy bill laden with alternative fuel incentives.
Forecasts for the ethanol industry have subsequently blossomed. The corn used to produce ethanol is expected to rise from 996 million bushels in 2003 to 2.2 billion bushels next year, says the USDA. And the broader market for biofuels — primarily ethanol and biodiesel — could grow to $52.5 billion by 2015, up from $15.7 billion in 2005, according to the Portland, Ore.-based research firm Clean Edge.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Anyone have related info on how many energy units it takes to produce the equivalent amout of automotive gasoline or heating oil?
Nothing surprising here. Many are ready to jump on the government subsidized ethanol plan.
The report is for ethanol derived from corn. It does not deal with cellulosic ethanol, derived from agricultural waste products. This is by far where the interesting plays are. When your feedstock is useless garbage that others will pay you to take away. and you are using enzymes rather than distilleries to convert the starch to alcohol, you costs go way way down. And that is why ethanol is the alternative fuel of the future. Also it is cleaner burning than oil based products. If you rub gasoline on your fingers you will notice it has an oily texture. Try it with ethanol and you feel nothing after the alcohol has evaporated.
This is one of the factors which has pushed up the price of sugar this year. It is a very booming commodity.
Other factors are the trade cycle (sugar had been down a long time - must come up) and cyclones causing scarcity.
Read it and weep. There is no such thing as a free lunch:
Between 1995 and 2003, federal corn subsidies totaled $37.3 billion. That's more than twice the amount spent on wheat subsidies, three times the amount spent on soybeans, and 70 times the amount spent on tobacco.
Which is quite stupid and indefensible. We are talking new technology where you are not paying to grow crops but rather taking ag waste and breaking it down into ethyl. The fact that uncle sam has to pay people to make the stuff proves it is not economically viable, but don't forget those subsidies were when gas was at a buck a gallon. Convential corn fructose ethanol conversion is probably a little better than breakeven now.
In Brazil where they make ethyl from sugar can, it is much more cost effective, because the can has a much higher energy level than corn. Our current program has simply been a gift to Archer Daniels Midland. The new systems will be economically feasible. Cost per gallon will drop to the low 70 cent range.
Never in a hundred, never in a thousand, never in a million years.
Read this article!!!
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass.html
Then dream on!
You notice the government is always adding something and raising the price because of it or, taking something out and raising the price because of it. It truly is a crazy world.
BP now calls itself Beyond Petroleum. Had a talk with an employee who said this company is looking very hard at buying farmlands, for the E85 business.
E85 is only 15 percent gasoline, and yields 105 octane fuel.
Saab in Sweden has built cars to burn BioFuel, and the cars give performance better than gasoline engines.
Brazil is energy self-sufficient.
This fellow said the US will move in this direction, because it is cost effective, and the marketing system is in place--gas stations.
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