Posted on 04/06/2006 5:44:02 AM PDT by moose2004
Pennsylvania Senate:
Will Pro-Life Stance Cost Casey?
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
April 5, 2006--You know an incumbent is in tough shape when it's considered good news that his challenger is just nine points ahead, but that's where Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) finds himself seven months before Election 2006. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in the Keystone State shows Democrat Bob Casey leading Santorum 50% to 41%.
That's the first time in all six polls we've conducted on this race that Casey's lead has slipped to single digits. It's also the first time Santorum has moved above the 40% mark since last July.
However, another aspect of the poll might be even more encouraging for Santorum... and troubling for Casey.
After asking survey respondents who they would vote for, we informed them that the National Organization for Women (NOW) is concerned about Casey on the abortion issue and is endorsing another candidate in the primary. We then asked a second time about how each respondent would vote.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of Casey's initial voters changed their mind upon hearing this news. Half switched to Santorum while the others split between "some other candidate" and "not sure."
The change was dramatic enough that, having heard the new information, voters favored Santorum by a five-point margin (46% to 41%). This suggests a lack of voter knowledge about Casey that could make the race more competitive than it seems at this time.
News about NOW's concerns caused Casey's support to fall 12 points among moderate voters and 13 points among liberal voters. It did not gain him any conservative votes.
From a partisan perspective, Casey lost 7 points of support among unaffiliated voters and 13 points among Democrats. Just as important, however, the highlighting of Casey's pro-Life views actually increased Santorum's support among Republicans.
Initially, the GOP voters favored Santorum by a 61% to 27% margin. On the second ask, they favored Santorum 69% to 21%.
Despite all of this, however, it is important to remember the basic fact that Senator Santorum remains in terrible shape for an incumbent. It may be possible for him to mount a comeback, but it will be uphill all the way.
The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports Pennsylvania election polls shows Casey continuing to hold a solid lead, 50% to 38%. In other words, while Casey's support may be declining slightly, it has not yet transformed the nature of this race.
Good news for Rick. Still a lot of work ahead of him, but also a huge warchest to help his cause.
Rick should find a way to remind all the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh libs about Casey's pro-life stance, it appears that as more and more of them do Caey's numbers drop.
Still, alot of time between now and November. I got the feeling that Rick is gonna pull this one out.
its still 9 and with the moe i still wouldnt jump for joy
The socially liberal Phila. suburbs will not be eager to vote for a pro-life Democrat.
Wow. a 15-point swing just based on a single statement by NOW?
And they say the pro-life movement are one-issue voters.....
Your choice is quite clear in this race. I suggest you get over your bitterness. Follow Pat Toomey's example.
I imagine Mr. Casey will soon be issuing some type of "I'm personally against abortion but respect a woman's right..." statement.
LOL! That's exactly what I thought when I read this. He's a Dem. Time to get flippin' and floppin'!
Thanks Coop!
Pat Toomey has started running radio ads locally paid for by a PAC.
It's clearly intended to shore up the base.
If he keeps it up, I can see Rick winning in a squeaker, but it will be VERY tight.
Don't forget that this is a poll in a vacuum, i.e., without any recognition of the overall political situations, like the plunging ratings of the disloyal GOP Congress or the counterbalancing strong run so far by Lynn Swann who is beating the incumbent governor Rendell in the polls.
As do I (and I'm also not a resident). But those conservatives need to decide if they really want to throw out the baby (a dedicated, high-ranking conservative) out with the bath water.
I don't agree with what Rick did, either. I could honestly understand him not taking sides in that race. That made sense to me. But to openly campaign for Spectre, I thought that was a huge mistake. But it's over now. Am I ready to see him replaced by a Dem (even a fairly conservative one) over it? No.
Wow, I am shocked. Wasn't Santorum about 15 points behind? This is a good sign. Sometimes it's not about the actual number but about the trend. This is trending good for our side. Let's hope this keeps up until November.
Back to the topic, it's lookin' good that Santorum is closing the gap, but he's still the underdog. I'm sure the liberal voters will come through for Casey once they realize (if they don't already know it) that he "may" be pro-life but he'll vote the "right" way (wink wink).
I hear you, but I think Rick can pull off an ugly win by exposing Casey's pro-life stance as much and as often as he can. Many Pilly and Pittsburgh dem libs will, more than likely, not support a pro-life candidate, especially since Kate Michelman elevated the issue.
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