Posted on 04/07/2006 7:43:55 AM PDT by John Geyer
WASHINGTON - President Bush's approval ratings hit a series of new lows in an AP-Ipsos poll that also shows Republicans surrendering their advantage on national security - grim election-year news for a party struggling to stay in power.
Democratic leaders predicted they will seize control of one or both chambers of Congress in November. Republicans said they feared the worst unless the political landscape quickly changes.
Just 36 percent of the public approves of Bush's job performance, his lowest-ever rating in AP-Ipsos polling. By contrast, the president's job approval rating was 47 percent among likely voters just before Election Day 2004 and a whopping 64 percent among registered voters in October 2002.
By comparison, Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had public approval in the mid 60s at this stage of their second terms in office, while Dwight Eisenhower was close to 60 percent, according to Gallup polls. Richard Nixon, who was increasingly tangled up in the Watergate scandal, was in the high 20s in early 1974.
As bad as Bush's numbers may be, Congress' are worse.
Just 30 percent of the public approves of the GOP-led Congress' job performance, and Republicans seem to be shouldering the blame.
"These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had," GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. "The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one."
There is more at stake than the careers of GOP lawmakers. A Democratic-led Congress could bury the last vestiges of Bush's legislative agenda and subject the administration to high-profile investigations of the Iraq war, the CIA leak case, warrantless eavesdropping and other matters.
In the past two congressional elections, Republicans gained seats on the strength of Bush's popularity and a perception among voters that the GOP was stronger on national security than Democrats.
Those advantages are gone, according to a survey of 1,003 adults conducted this week for The Associated Press by Ipsos, an international polling firm.
- Only 40 percent of the public approves of Bush's performance on foreign policy and the war on terror, another low-water mark for his presidency. That's down 9 points from a year ago. Just before the 2002 election, 64 percent of registered voters backed Bush on terror and foreign policy.
- Just 35 percent of the public approves of Bush's handling of Iraq, his lowest in AP-Ipsos polling.
"He's in over his head," said Diane Heller, 65, a Pleasant Valley, N.Y., real estate broker and independent voter.
By a 49-33 margin, the public favors Democrats over Republicans when asked which party should control Congress.
That 16-point Democratic advantage is the largest the party has enjoyed in AP-Ipsos polling.
On an issue the GOP has dominated for decades, Republicans are now locked in a tie with Democrats - 41 percent each - on the question of which party people trust to protect the country. Democrats made their biggest national security gains among young men, according to the AP-Ipsos poll, which had a 3 percentage point margin of error.
The public gives Democrats a slight edge on what party would best handle Iraq, a reversal from Election Day 2004.
"We're in an exceptionally challenging electoral environment," said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a former GOP strategist. "We start off on a battlefield today that is tilted in their direction, and that's when you have to use the advantages you have."
Those include the presidential "bully pulpit" and the "structural, tactical advantages" built into the system, Cole said.
One of those advantages is a political map that is gerrymandered to put House incumbents in relatively safe districts, meaning Democrats have relatively few opportunities to pick up the 15 seats they need to gain control.
In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up six seats.
"I think we will win the Congress," Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean said, breaking the unwritten rule against raising expectations.
"Everything is moving in our direction. If it keeps moving in our direction, it's very reasonable to say there will be a Democratic Senate and House," said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Strategists in both parties say it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Democrats to seize control of Congress.
First, the elections would need to be nationalized. Democrats hope to do that with a burgeoning ethics scandal focused on relationships between GOP lobbyists and lawmakers.
Secondly, the public would need to be in a throw-the-bums-out mood. It's unclear whether that is the case, but 69 percent of Americans believes the nation is headed in the wrong direction - the largest percentage during the Bush presidency and up 13 points from a year ago.
Third, staunch GOP voters would need to stay home. Nobody can predict whether that will happen, but a growing number of Republicans disagree with their leaders in Washington about immigration, federal spending and other issues.
Bush's approval rating is down 12 points among Republicans since a year ago. Six-in-10 Republicans said they disapproved of the GOP-led Congress.
"I'd just as soon they shut (Congress) down for a few years," said Robert Hirsch, 72, a Republican-leaning voter in Chicago. "All they do is keep passing laws and figuring out ways to spend our money."
Every poll is the worst poll for the GOP and Bush, EVER POLL.
House and Senate can bring the party back and gain support from their base regardless of the polls IF they start to act like Republicans again and distance themselves from Specter, Graham, McCain.
Pass a strong border control plan quickly and no amnesty or worker program for illegals and definitely no welfare for them.
AP, stopped reading immediately.
This speaks volumes as to the feeling of conservative voters toward RINOs
I personally feel Republicans sold out their base.
The Dems will NEVER lead the GOP on security issues.
For what it's worth, this polling firm is owned by the French.
It's skewed, to be sure, but there is definitely a bad trend going on. Fox took out its own poll yesterday and said his approval was at 36%. I'm inclined to believe Fox News polls are accurate, generally.
Bush's polls suck, and I don't care, he deserves it.
I still don't know why this president is not out in front not only doing the Iraq stuff but promoting the economic numbers like a 4.7% unemployment.
Being popular has never been a prerequisite for accomplishing anything important.
Popularity is overrated and is probably a good indication of shallowness. "A walk through the waters of many men's souls would scarcely wet your feet".
Either you are true to your base or you lose them.
Some democracy; the people's voices are routinely ignored by some high-falutin' rich white guy in Washington? Shameful and un-American...
What's that? We're a Republic, not a democracy? We elect leaders to represent us based on their ideology and experience, not on the daily whim of public opinion?
Oh.
Never mind...guess I better move to France...
I can't believe that anyone in their right mind would even bother reading one of these DemocRAT "polls" with the political atmosphere being as poisoned as it is. If you think the Liberals in the MSM would ever release a "poll" showing Bush's "popularity" rising right now, you're doing too much meth. The MSM has their DNC blitzkrieg on a roll. They are really working it in an effort to get the Senate and the House back for their 'RAT massas. Lord knows, the 'RATS can't do it themselves. Even the morons at FOX news are out of touch. According to FNC, "da conomy" is the number one issue with the American people. That's why MILLIONS of illegal aliens are planning to trash America and "get in America's face" while demanding a free ride from the taxpayers on May 1st. Yeah. "It's da conomy." I don't think so.
Polls, schmolls . . . I wrote the following "heads up" TWO DAYS AGO:
HEADS UP. . .
I want to forewarn everyone that we are on the cusp of a new round of MSM manufactured polls . . . Rest assured, the President's new JA ratings will be the LOWEST OF HIS PRESIDENCY (aren't they always)!
Just remember, these polls mean NOTHING. The President has already been re-elected; for him it's about making the RIGHT decisions for the short-term to help solve TOUGH, COMPLEX problems for the LONG-TERM . . . Unlike his predecessor, our President is willing to take the political hits now (re the WOT, immigration, social security, and so on) so that future generations can live in peace and prosperity. If he were obsessed with JA ratings, he would simply do a Clinton and just pass the the problems on to the next president (and the next generation) -- of course, the problems would worsen exponentially and become even more immutable to change.
At any rate, I think our montra should be: UNTIL THE PRESIDENT'S JA RATINGS HIT -2004*, WE'RE JUST NOT INTERESTED!
*I chose 2004 to underscore the year in which President Bush earned re-election with more votes than any other president in history DESPITE the fact that Zogby, FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics and Gallup used their polls to predict the president would LOSE his re-election bid -- so much for the reliability of pollsters who use invalid sampling techniques to MANUFACTURE agenda-driven polling results!
RASMUSSEN:
Interestingly, today's RASMUSSEN'S poll puts the President's JA rating at an 8-day high:
43% approve 56% disapprove
[NOTE: According to Rasmussen, who also oversamples Democrats (just not as flagrantly as other pollsters), the President's JA rating has consistently ranged between 40% and 45% (43%-48% likely voters) for March and early April -- basically where he (the President) was during the 2004 election cycle!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm
FOX NEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS:
I'm sure the various FoxNews pundits and talking heads will be quoting the new Opinion Dynamics poll ad nauseum tonight and thru the weekend. The following is all you need to know about this poll:
1.) The ONLY thing that changed between this poll -- 36% approve 53% disapprove (-17) -- and the last poll -- 39% approve 51% disapprove (-12), is the polling sample. Specifically, the differential between the percentage of Democrats and Republicans polled changed by 4 points (advantage Democrats):
Apr 04-05: 39% Democrat 34% Republican (-5)
Mar 14-15: 37% Democrat 36% Republican (-1)
FUN FACTOID from this poll:
Republicans (Congress)-- only 29% approve
Democrats (Congress)-- only 29% approve
Additionallly, when dealing with illegal immigration, 58% of Republicans and 63% of Independents believe we should deal with the illegal immigrants already here and/or use a comined approach of dealing with the illegals already here and securing the borders -- the President's COMPREHENSIVE position.
Concurrently, 69% agree (including 69% of Republicans) that the US should provide illegals with some type of temporary worker status -- also a position of the President
And the country. The performance of the gop lead congress has been abysmal and the problem is the dems would be no better or worse. They have focused on doing all they can to established their own job security via gerrymandering and then increased their incomes and perks while divising new ways to soak the taxpayer. Meanwhile the country has been going to hell and deeper into debt. None of them deserve our support, gop or dim. Time for a wholesale house cleaning (which would be impossible, they have seen to that) or a revolution
And if they don't wise up, they will keep dropping.
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