Posted on 4/11/2006, 12:24:18 AM by Ernest_at_the_Beach
* Sunni bloc tells Shias their rejection of Jaafari as PM is final
BAGHDAD: Iraqi Sunni and Kurdish leaders Monday emphatically rejected Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari staying on in the next government, possibly sealing the embattled Shia premier’s political fate.
The clear no to Jaafari - blamed for failing to curb sectarian bloodshed since the bombing of the Shia Samarra shrine in February - came amid a wave of violence that left more than 100 Shias dead last week.
Jaafari’s Shia United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the largest parliamentary bloc, had made yet another attempt Sunday to save Jaafari’s candidature by setting up a three-member committee to talk to the Kurds and the Sunnis.
The committee was mandated to talk to the two minority groups without whose support a national unity government - as desired by the United States - is virtually impossible to be formed in Iraq.
“We have sent a letter to our Shia brothers explaining that our position remains the same - that of rejecting Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari’s candidacy,” Thafer al-Ani, spokesman of Sunni-led National Concord Front told AFP.
The National Concord Front has 44 seats in the 275-member Iraqi parliament.
Late Sunday Iraq’s Kurdish group also rejected Jaafari’s candidature. “We have once again rejected Jaafari’s candidacy,” Kurdish lawmaker Mahmud Othman told AFP after a meeting between leaders of the Kurdish coalition in parliament and representatives of Jaafari’s party.
The election-winning Shia bloc, which has 128 MPs, also lacks the overall majority in the 275-member parliament needed to push through a nomination for prime minister on its own.
Jaafari has been facing opposition even from within the alliance, with numerous Shia MPs demanding his withdrawal, including Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi, who lost out narrowly to Jaafari in the nomination race.
US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad expressed confidence the deadlock would be resolved soon.
“Other parties (Kurds, Sunnis) have had objections to his nomination. And they’re talking about a way out. They’re doing that today, and hopefully they will solve that in the next day or two,” Khalilzad told CNN Sunday.
For the US, a national unity government is a key for an eventual withdrawal of troops from Iraq.
The US-led coalition forces currently have around 140,000 troops in Iraq.
As the yawning political vacuum created over Jaafari continues nearly four months after the elections, Iraq remains engulfed in a deadly wave of sectarian violence.
More than 100 Shias have died last week in a series of bombings, some of them targetted at their religious sites in a bid to flare more sectarian killings between the dominant Iraqi community and the minority Sunni Arabs.
The worst was the triple bombings at a popular Baghdad Shia mosque that killed 90 worshippers as they stepped out of the sanctuary after their Friday prayers.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and a senior Iraqi minister have declared that Iraq was in a state of civil war. “On a daily basis Shia, Sunni, Kurds and Christians are being killed and the only undeclared thing is that a civil war has not been officially announced by the parties involved,” Iraq’s Deputy Interior Minister Hussein Ali Kamal said. AFP
I hope this gets resolved SOON. The sooner an Iraqi govt gets off the ground the better off we'll all be.
It's not a civil war, and it's not even close to one.
But it is time to form a government and it's clear Jaafari is now an obstacle.
He needs to step aside for the sake of his country, if nothing else.
From the Fourth Rail, and Bill Roggio:
April 10, 2006
Declining Jaafari
*******************************AN EXCERPT ********************************88
Sistani, Talabani and Sunni parties call for an end to the political deadlock for the selection of the Iraqi Prime Minister
Pressure on Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari to withdraw his nomination as the United Iraqi Alliance candidate as the next prime minister increases, this time from some very influential quarters. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most respected and influential Shiite religious leader in Iraq, has reluctantly entered the fray. This indicates the gravity of the situation, as Sistani does not wish to become the arbiter of Iraqi politics. Kirk Sowell reports:
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AND
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Previously, the calls for Jaafari's resignation came from different factions within the UIA, including SCIRI's AbdulMahdi and Jalal al-Deen al-Saghir, Mohammed Ismail Khazali of the Fadhila party, and independent UIA member Kasim Daoud. Now that Sistani has openly withdrawn support, Jaafari's time is short. Jaafari's Dawa party must decide if it will support him to the bitter end, in defiance of Sistani's council and the united factions outside the UIA. Will Jaafari and Sadr stand against Iraq?
Sadr must decide if it will bring the Mahdi Army to the streets of Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala and force a showdown with the U.S. Army and Marines, and the Iraqi security forces.
Iranian plans to gain influence via Jaafari and Sadr are close to being in shambles.
The real questions are will Iran risk an open confrontation with the Coalition and Iraqi government by backing an open insurrection by supporting Sadr's Mahdi Army and elements of the Badr Brigades said to be under their control, and will they risk losing their most influential and powerful pieces on the Iraqi chess board?
We've kicked Sadr's army before, and I'd almost welcome another confrontation. But this time Sadr needs to accidentally get shot in the process.
There have been a flurry of news reports, but somewhere I thought I saw mention of another meeting Wednesday, so Sadr needs to make his move soon....except now he has an Iraqi Army and a US Army to fight.....he may not choose to fight.
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March 27, 2006: The battle of Fallujah, in late 2004, is still being studied by U.S. Army and Marine historians and doctrine ("how to fight") experts. The Fallujah fighting was quite intense, even by historical standards, something that the media missed. What was noticed was how quickly the army and marine troops blitzed through the city, clearing out the 4,000 very determined defenders. The speed and efficiency of the American attack was the result of some unique, in the history of warfare, factors. But the principal reason for the success in Fallujah was the high degree of training the troops had. Many also had months of combat experience in Iraq. These factors (training and combat experience) have long been key factors in combat success. But the American troops in Fallujah had some relatively new advantages, that were used aggressively. These included massive amounts of information on the enemy, and robotic weapons. The standard gear of the 5,000 attacking troops was also exceptionally good by historical standards. Especially notable was the improved body armor and communications gear.
The end result of all this was a two week campaign that resulted in some 500 American and Iraqi casualties, but the obliteration of the defending force (1,200, 1,500 captured, the rest either got out, or were buried in bombed buildings). While the enemy were not, compared to the U.S. troops, well trained, they were motivated, and often refused to surrender. But the speed and violence of the American assault prevented any coordinated defense. The U.S. troops quickly cut the city into sectors, that were then methodically cleared out.
The terrorists that got out, later all repeated the same story. Once the Americans were on to you, if was like being stalked by a machine. The often petrified defender could only remember the footsteps of the approaching American troops inside a building, the gunfire and grenade blasts as rooms were cleared, and the shouted commands that accompanied it. If a building was so well defended that the American infantry could not get in, they would just obliterate it with a smart bomb. They used smaller weapons, like AT-4 rocket launchers, many of which fuel-air explosive (thermobaric) warheads. These would use an explosive mist to create a lethal blast, capable of clearing several rooms at once. The defenders could occasionally kill or wound the advancing Americans, but could not stop them. Nothing the defenders did worked, and the American tactics developers want to keep it that way.
The speed with which intelligence information (from troops, electronic intercepts, and constant live video via UAVs and gunships overhead) was processed enabled commanders to keep the battle going 24/7. The defenders were not ready to deal with this, and many of them died while groggy from lack of sleep. When in that condition, you are more prone to make mistakes, and the attackers were ready to take advantage.
Compared to earlier wars, there has never been anything quite like Fallujah. The Pentagon is still sorting out what it all means for the future of warfare. What they do know is that future battles are likely to continue being different that anything in the past.
" Iranian plans to gain influence via Jaafari and Sadr are close to being in shambles."
The money quote in this thread.
Kurds and Sunnis are getting together to make sure their fears of an "Iranian-led" Govt are not realized... a national unity Government or deadlock.
Time for Jafaari and Dawa to do the right thing and end the deadlock. I am optimistic that Iraq will have a much better Government going forward, even if it is taking some time to form... Iraqis are learning democracy day by day, and are correcting mistakes.
In the end, they will be stronger for it.
"The terrorists that got out, later all repeated the same story. Once the Americans were on to you, if was like being stalked by a machine. The often petrified defender could only remember the footsteps of the approaching American troops inside a building, the gunfire and grenade blasts as rooms were cleared, and the shouted commands that accompanied it. If a building was so well defended that the American infantry could not get in, they would just obliterate it with a smart bomb. They used smaller weapons, like AT-4 rocket launchers, many of which fuel-air explosive (thermobaric) warheads. These would use an explosive mist to create a lethal blast, capable of clearing several rooms at once. The defenders could occasionally kill or wound the advancing Americans, but could not stop them. Nothing the defenders did worked, and the American tactics developers want to keep it that way."
Roggio writes in a way that makes our men out to be the best, and makes out the enemy to be out-classed, out-gunned and defeated.
The MSM writes like the Americans are clueless and the terrorists are brilliant. They never have written of 'terrified' jihadists, nor have they ever written to emphasize the cool efficiency of US military practice.
Who's right? Funny but an enemy body count of 1200 and US/coalition combat deaths of 50 in a tough battle suggests an answer.
Iraqi Terrorists Suffering a Manpower Shortage
April 10, 2006:
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The enemy in Iraq is having a manpower shortage. This is noted by the reduction in the number of attacks on American troops, and the smaller groups of attackers involved in things like ambushes. This is one of the reasons for the new American policy of fighting it out with ambushes rather than hitting the accelerator. Because of money and recruiting problems, most ambushes in Iraq are conducted by a very small number of attackers. Unlike Vietnam, where the communists might deploy a hundred or so gunmen for an ambush, in Iraq ambush teams are most frequently 5-10 men. This is partially due to the different environment (not much jungle in Iraq) and partially to organizational ones (the enemy was a lot better organized and lot better trained in Vietnam). But mostly, it's a matter of money.
Most of the violence in Iraq is driven by organizations that pay people to participate. These groups have suffered increasing casualties over the last year, and that has resulted in fewer wealthy Sunni Arabs putting up the cash to pay the fighters. The increasing casualties caused by American and Iraqi forces has also discouraged Sunni Arabs from taking the money offered. The work has become too dangerous. The word gets around fast when Abdul and his four buddies all get killed when they tried to ambush some Iraqi police (and got spotted by an American UAV, and hit with a counterattack by Iraqi and American forces). Another problem for the recruiters has been increased use of night vision surveillance cameras by the Americans, and more UAVs available to fly night missions. The larger UAVs carry missiles. This means a few guys setting up a roadside bomb will suddenly disappear in a loud explosion.
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Another danger for the bomb planting teams are American snipers equipped with 12.7mm (.50 caliber) sniper rifles, and night vision scopes. Intelligence software can often predict which road the next bombs will be planted on, enabling the sniper teams to be deployed in such a way that they often catch these teams in the act, and often kill all three or four men involved. Actually, it's even better if one or two get away. They proceed to tell horrifying stories of their buddies "blowing up" when h it. That's a normal effect when someone is hit by a .50 caliber bullet. Those scary stories have a tendency to travel fast and far, discouraging others from hiring on to plant bombs. The recruiters have responded, as they always have, by raising the rates, But this means fewer teams can be sent out. With the money guys getting discouraged as well, there is less cash, higher fees for the gunmen and bomb planters and, as a result, far fewer attacks against Americans, and even Iraqi police and troops (who, the terrorists know, usually operate with American backup forces.)
They still believe in the smoky back room deal, not used to resolving things quickly by voting, they love Haggling....I've heard.
So the Shia militias massacring Sunnis are what? Boy Scouts?
Excellent post.
I was never much hopeful for a decent democracy in Iraq. I think we needed to install a decent, civil society first. By putting all chips on the democracy square, we now have a prime minister who refuses to step down (but his coalition did win), and a government, which, if it forms at all, will be governing from Sharia law. Great.
I'm not interested in the "is it a real civil war?" debate. Viet Nam was never a real, declared war either. But if we stay, our troops are in between civil factions attacking each other. Intervening to defend either side means we've "chosen sides" etc. A no-win situation. Get our troops pulled to the borders, keep the oil refineries guarded, and let the Iraqis deal with what is a completely Iraqi problem. Maybe pulling the foreign contractors out, and letting Iraqis rebuild their country wouldn't be a bad idea either.
A recipe for defeat. Good luck with that idea.
Defeat for whom? We've gotten rid of Saddam, that's our victory. The Iraqis, sans Saddam, are now fighting each other. That's the time to pull back to the borders, and start dealing with more pressing problesms. Maybe we could beef up our troops in Afghanistan.
More good news ...
At this rate, Murtha will have to demand a pullout ..
"Quick, we need to pullout bfore we win!"
"Two prime candidates have been on the books for along time. I would like to know, then again maybe I really don't want to know the truth, why at this last juncture in time they just do not call for a the parliament to go into session and put up the three or four names and vote."
There reason I understand it is that they need to get the whole Government slate lined up to share power. It's a delicate balancing act that requires a lot of horsetrading...
What is pathetic about the situation though is that its been 3 weeks now since its been clear jafaari is *not it*, and the UIA is not moving. More clear evidence they lack the leadership skills needed to pull their weight alone.
The UIA's runner up for PM slot would make a better candidate - he's more secular, more pro-free-market, and more acceptable to other sides. AND, he lost in the UIA vote by 1 vote (43-42). Slam dunk. S888 or get off the pot, UIA!
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