Advanced Search The Global Baby Bust

Foreign affairs ^ | may 2006 | Phillip Longman

[catholicfreeper]

Summary: Most people think overpopulation is one of the worst dangers facing the globe. In fact, the opposite is true. As countries get richer, their populations age and their birthrates plummet. And this is not just a problem of rich countries: the developing world is also getting older fast. Falling birthrates might seem beneficial, but the economic and social price is too steep to pay. The right policies could help turn the tide, but only if enacted before it's too late.

[catholicfreeper]

Even though there have many articles on this topic this article is written quite well. It examines the falling birth rate in the West and in Areas of China and comes to some troubling conclusions. Of interest besides the fact that middle East birthrates are out of this world is this. " Now the developing world, as it becomes more urban and industrialized, is experiencing the same demographic transition, but at a faster pace. Today, when Americans think of Mexico, for example, they think of televised images of desperate, unemployed youths swimming the Rio Grande or slipping through border fences. Yet because Mexican fertility rates have dropped so dramatically, the country is now aging five times faster than is the United States. It took 50 years for the American median age to rise just five years, from 30 to 35. By contrast, between 2000 and 2050, Mexico's median age, according to UN projections, will increase by 20 years, leaving half the population over 42. Meanwhile, the median American age in 2050 is expected to be 39.7"

no matter what side of the illegal immigration/legal immigration side of the debate you are on this is pretty troubling. I was aware Latino birthrates had decreased but not by this much.

In many ways this is good news for those that are concerned about illegal immigration. In fact the migration might end sooner than expected in the long term. However, it would appear that in order for the USA to maintain its standard of living plus be a power in the World, immigration must maintain at some current high levels or at least that there not be a massive downswing in immigration that last a extended period of time. Also it shows that perhaps some more comprehensive policy for Latin America is needed

Anyway its a pretty good read and is in fact pretty frightning. At some point one starts to wonder if there will be enough people and resources for the West to maintain things such as the military as we know it today.

[catholicfreeper]

THe correct title is the simply "The Global Baby Bust" dont know how "advanced search" ended up in the heading.

[sphinx]

I just scanned it quickly but the author offers a couple of modestly useful suggestions toward the end. What struck me, however, is how he dodged the question of entitlement reform. He moans at length about the unsustainability of current pension and health care arrangements, but the simple solutions of putting Social Security on a fully funded, investment basis and vouchering health care seem to elude him. The partisan mental screen, I imagine.

[prisoner6]

Thanks...pinging for laters.

prisoner6

[agere_contra]

immigration must maintain at some current high levels

Yes, but it must be LEGAL immigration. Which of course is half the problem - currently, obtaining legal immigration into the US is like getting your teeth pulled.

[stopem]

Typical GLOBALIST propaganda. We must become multiculturists and import young hoodlums (referred to as undocumented workers) and they must be socialists so as to be certain we comtinue spreading socialism, marxism like a disease, lets make it a pandemic and import 20 million from mexico and let them multiply like rabbits and there you have the perfect formula for the DECLINE of this great NATION!!!!

Get rid of Roe and allow Americans to multiply!

[ClaireSolt]

I think there are a couple of things we could do. First, education is very padded to keep people out of the labor force. We could definately move people through the curriculum more quickly. Second, we have lots of people sidelined who could contribute if approached differently. It boggles my mind that NYC has 30,000 homeless every night. That is a city. Also, we have millions of prisoners and parolees who are idle. Some seniors could contribute more. In short, if you add in wasteful government, we are fat and will get leaner. That has to be good, overall.

[aberaussie]

bttt

[monday]

"Get rid of Roe and allow Americans to multiply!"

Roe is not the problem. Abortions are just birth control for the stupid and irresponsible. Their children are not going to make America a great place to live.

Birth control pills are the real culprit. They allow women to control how many children they have. It turns out most don't want to have more than one or two.

[Tanniker Smith]

I hear Bill Clinton wants to help reverse this trend and is looking for young, nubile volunteers.

TS

[Broker]

College propaganda organizations like Zero Population Growth "ZPG" have preached doom and gloom over the past 40 years to College students. They recently changed there name to Population Connection and can be found at this web site: http://www.populationconnection.org/

Whoever started ZPG had only the destruction of American capitalistic society in mind.

[after dark]

Legal immigration should be reformed.

[after dark]

The zero population growth people have been successful in convincing many women that more than two children are way to many.

Most people can't think of the long term consequences of having small families. There will be fewer aunts and uncles. Their is even the possibility that their grand children will have no cousins.

On the other hand, it might be just as well that most people don't realize the long term consequences of their bad choices.Legal child snatching would be the end result of people realizing what kind isolation they are setting their grandchildren up for.

[catholicfreeper]

Thats true. I often think of the same thing to a limited degree after my Parents generation goes to their great reward. What will the system be like for me after we have finished paying for them.

[catholicfreeper]

You have no argument from me about getting rid of Roe. In afact thinks like unlimited abortion fail to make sense after a while even in a pure country survival sense. I do take issue with the rest of your statement though. It appears the problem in Mexico and if fact else where in the west no one is even close to multiplying like rabbits. That is one reason why I mention that there must be a better policy toward Central and Latin America. Who will we trade with? Who will pick up the slack of upholding the West after Europe is gone?

[catholicfreeper]

You know I have never paid attention to the the people that promote Zero population growth on a global level. Looking at the Mexico stats it appears they have been quite busy. Many of these people are poor and cant afford birth control pills. So someone is funding this. The UN?

[blueminnesota]

So women should be forced to have more children than they want? Doesn't sound like a great plaa to me.

[after dark]

I wish I could say the "more of me , less of you " philosophy only belonged to rich evil people, but I know people who could never be apart of any over class who also hold this philosophy. There is just no polite way to tell those poor people that their "betters" really don't want them around.