HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

If you look at each state and how it voted in the 2004 election cycle, you can assign a Red, Purple, or Blue category to it. I used anything greater than 52% Bush as Red, 48-52% Bush

Then in looking at 2005 and Lifetime ACU ratings (how conservative their voting patterns have been), I assigned the Senators in order from most conservative to least conservative, and

going off of current knowledge of recent voting patterns, I then identified the RINOs:

Liberal RINOs (least conservative first): Chafee, Snowe, Collins
Moderate RINOs (least conservative first): DeWine,Smith(OR),Specter,Coleman,Voinovich,Gregg,McCain*,Graham*,Hagel*

Note: It is very hard to call McCain, Graham and Hagel RINOs from looking at their long-term voting patterns, but for the purposes of this analysis I call them RINOs mainly because that

are bucking the GOP Senate leacership and acting like they are in charge instead of Frist. It is likely that 2008 Presidential politics are playing a big role in their behaviour.

15 Red States with 2 Conservative Senators: AL,AK,GA,ID,KS,KY,MS,MO,NC,OK,TN,TX,UT,VA,WY
2 Red States with a Conservative and a RINO: AZ, SC
4 Red States that are splitting their vote with one Conservative and one Liberal: IN,LA,MT,SD
1 Red State with a RINO and a Liberal: NE
Remarkably, there are 3 Red states with 2 Liberal Senators: AR,ND,WV

Red State Analysis:
There is a potential for +8 Conservative Senators in just those last 4 states (AR,ND,WV,and NE) and if we got two of four "split" states to throw out their liberal and elect two

0 Purple States with two Conservative Senators
2 Purple States with a Conservative and a RINO: PA,NH
5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM
1 Purple State with 2 RINOs: OH
2 Purple States with a Liberal and a RINO: MN,OR
2 Purple States with two Liberals: MI, WI

Purple State Analysis:
Our best chances to improve in the Purple states is to get rid of the Liberals. There are potentially 11 Liberals who could get run out of office in these states, but in order for a

Conservative to win, we need great candidates. In some cases we will probably have to settle for a Moderate in some of these Purple states. It is also likely that these states will be

1 Blue State with 2 RINOs: ME
1 Blue State with a Liberal and a RINO: RI
11 Blue States with 2 Liberal Senators: CA,CT,DE,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NY,VT,WA

Blue State Analysis: Our three most liberal RINOs are all from these blue states, and the chances of electing a true Conservative are slim to none at present. If we want more RINOs, then we could potentially

swap RINOs for liberals in some races. This will tend to be the celebrity or otherwise well-known, well-funded candidate (ala Arnold) or if there is some other local issue (like scandal).

We should not spend too much time and effort on the Blue States, when there is so much potential to improve still in the Red and Purple States.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: If we get 2 Conservatives from each Red State, and at least one Conservative from each Purple state, we are at 62 true Conservative Senators, enough to do what needs to be done to enact Conservative legislation.

HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE?

In the 2006 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Byrd(WV), Conrad(ND), Nelson(NE)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Stabenow(MI), Bingaman(NM), Kohl(WI), Open(MN), Nelson(FL)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: none
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: DeWine(OH)

In the 2008 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: Graham*(SC), Hagel*(NE),
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Coleman(MN), Smith(OR)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Sununu(NH),Domenici(NM),Allard(CO)

In the 2010 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Lincoln(AR), Dorgan(ND), Bayh(IN)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Wyden(OR), Reid(NV), Feingold(WI), Salazar(CO)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: McCain*(AZ)
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Specter(PA), Voinovich*(OH), Gregg(NH)

We need strong candidates and a good grass-roots effort in each of these races where we have an opportunity for a TAKEOVER or an upgrade. Soliciting Freeper comments as to who is

What conservative candidates have experience in statewide elections in these states, and what will it take to get them to run?

It is too late to do much yet in 2006 but there are HUGE opportunities in 2008 and 2010 that we need to be planning for now...

I object to your characterization of certain Republican Senators as RINOs. Norm Coleman of MN comes readily to mind. He has voted conservative pretty much across the board, with only a couple of exceptions. I am ecstatic that we have a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax cuts, pro-military, pro-WOT Republican Senator representing a state that has not voted for the Republican presidential nominee since 1972 and which held President Bush to 45.5% in 2000 and 47.6% in 2004. As Senator Gregg has been a solid conservative as well; we are very fortunate to have two good conservative Senators from a "purple" state such as NH when the state's two U.S. Representatives are RINOs. And as bad as DeWine has been on a few issues, he is not a RINO, and certainly far less deserving of the label than the contemptible Arlen Specter. Same goes for McCain, Graham and Hagel; they have been huge disappointments on a couple of issues, but for the most part are solid conservatives. The RINOs in the Senate, from the most liberal to the least, are Lincoln Chafee, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Arlen Specter. The ultraliberal Chafee we can get rid of in this year's primaries, and as I have written before we'd be better off without Chafee even if an admitted Democrat were elected to replace him (although I think that Steve Laffey has a real chance of winning in November). Snowe and Collins aren't quite as reprehensible as Chafee and come from states that keep getting more and more Democrat and where it would be better difficult to find someone to beat them in the primary and then win the general election; until a conservative or at least moderate-to-conservative comes along with proven ability of winning in Maine, we may be stuck with the RINO sisters. As for Specter, we blew our chance of getting rid of him in 2004, and we're stuck with him until 2010 (assuming he lives that long). I hope that Governor Swann endorses Pat Toomey in 2010 and that we finally replace Specter with a real conservative. Among the Senators with disappointing records that fall short of RINO territory, I think the only ones worth going after are Graham and Hagel, who represent two of the most conservative states in the Union. We really can't expect to do much better than Gordon Smith in Democrat-leaning OR, and we'd need heavyweights such as Kasich or Blackwell to take down DeWine and Voinovich in GOP-leaning OH. As for McCain, I'm hoping he'll retire soon, since he'd be very tough to beat in a primary and if we do defeat him it might throw the seat to the Democrats. To have conservative control of the Senate, we need to elect Republicans from states that vote heavily GOP in presidential elections, such as ND, SD, MT, AR, NE, LA and WV. That can be accomplished by (i) nominating socially conservative, economically moderate-to-conservative candidates, (ii) convincing proven vote-getters to run against seemingly entrenched incumbents, and (iii) spending money on those races. John Thune's victory over Tom Daschle is the model to follow. We need SD Governor Rounds to take out Tim Johnson in 2008 and for both ex-Governor Schaefer (sp?) and Governor Hoeven to take out the liberal twins of ND. We need Governor Huckabee to take out Pryor in 2008 or (if he insists on running for President) Lincoln in 2010. And we need similar top-tier candidates to run in the other conservative states that keep electing liberal Democrats. Other than conservative Democrat Ben Nelson of NE, the other Democrat Senators from these states can easily be characterized as liberal by revealing to the ignorant public exactly what they voted for and against. In 2002, Saxby Chambliss used very effective 10- or 15-second ads about particular liberal votes by Max Cleland, ending with "Now why would he do that?" that convinced Georgians to throw out their conservative-talking, liberal-voting Senator. A similar strategy should work in the states I mentioned above. I think we can have a Senate with 60 Republicans, including 55+ solid conservatives, by 2010. But we need to make this a goal and stop wasting money on unnecessary or counter-productive battles. I, for one, return every donation request from the NRSC (which spends money attacking conservative challengers to RINOs such as Specter and Chafee) with a note letting them know that I'm sending my donations directly to conservative Republican Senate candidates such as Rick Santorum, Michael Steele, Stephen Laffey and Keith Butler, just as I sent donations directly to John Thune, Herman Cain and Pat Toomey last year. Conservatives need information of which battles are worth fighting and which candidates are worth backing. FR does a good job pointing out which candidates to support in certain races, but we need more. We need a 527 group such as Club for Growth, but one that will emphasize social issues such as abortion, guns and marriage in states in which this will help the GOP win (such as the states I mentioned above)---maybe call it the Club for Life---so that a single conservative candidate may emerge as the frontrunner in the GOP primary and not allow a RINO to sneak through with 30% of the vote because the conservative vote was split among 4 candidates. But most of all we need to take advantage of any little slip-up by Senate Democrats to gain these seats one by one.

Let me try again: I object to your characterization of certain Republican Senators as RINOs. Norm Coleman of MN comes readily to mind. He has voted conservative pretty much across the board, with only a couple of exceptions. I am ecstatic that we have a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax cuts, pro-military, pro-WOT Republican Senator representing a state that has not voted for the Republican presidential nominee since 1972 and which held President Bush to 45.5% in 2000 and 47.6% in 2004. As Senator Gregg has been a solid conservative as well; we are very fortunate to have two good conservative Senators from a "purple" state such as NH when the state's two U.S. Representatives are RINOs.

And as bad as DeWine has been on a few issues, he is not a RINO, and certainly far less deserving of the label than the contemptible Arlen Specter. Same goes for McCain, Graham and Hagel; they have been huge disappointments on a couple of issues, but for the most part are solid conservatives.

The RINOs in the Senate, from the most liberal to the least, are Lincoln Chafee, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Arlen Specter. The ultraliberal Chafee we can get rid of in this year's primaries, and as I have written before we'd be better off without Chafee even if an admitted Democrat were elected to replace him (although I think that Steve Laffey has a real chance of winning in November). Snowe and Collins aren't quite as reprehensible as Chafee and come from states that keep getting more and more Democrat and where it would be better difficult to find someone to beat them in the primary and then win the general election; until a conservative or at least moderate-to-conservative comes along with proven ability of winning in Maine, we may be stuck with the RINO sisters. As for Specter, we blew our chance of getting rid of him in 2004, and we're stuck with him until 2010 (assuming he lives that long). I hope that Governor Swann endorses Pat Toomey in 2010 and that we finally replace Specter with a real conservative.

Among the Senators with disappointing records that fall short of RINO territory, I think the only ones worth going after are Graham and Hagel, who represent two of the most conservative states in the Union. We really can't expect to do much better than Gordon Smith in Democrat-leaning OR, and we'd need heavyweights such as Kasich or Blackwell to take down DeWine and Voinovich in GOP-leaning OH. As for McCain, I'm hoping he'll retire soon, since he'd be very tough to beat in a primary and if we do defeat him it might throw the seat to the Democrats.

To have conservative control of the Senate, we need to elect Republicans from states that vote heavily GOP in presidential elections, such as ND, SD, MT, AR, NE, LA and WV. That can be accomplished by (i) nominating socially conservative, economically moderate-to-conservative candidates, (ii) convincing proven vote-getters to run against seemingly entrenched incumbents, and (iii) spending money on those races. John Thune's victory over Tom Daschle is the model to follow. We need SD Governor Rounds to take out Tim Johnson in 2008 and for both ex-Governor Schaefer (sp?) and Governor Hoeven to take out the liberal twins of ND. We need Governor Huckabee to take out Pryor in 2008 or (if he insists on running for President) Lincoln in 2010. And we need similar top-tier candidates to run in the other conservative states that keep electing liberal Democrats.

Other than conservative Democrat Ben Nelson of NE, the other Democrat Senators from these states can easily be characterized as liberal by revealing to the ignorant public exactly what they voted for and against. In 2002, Saxby Chambliss used very effective 10- or 15-second ads about particular liberal votes by Max Cleland, ending with "Now why would he do that?" that convinced Georgians to throw out their conservative-talking, liberal-voting Senator. A similar strategy should work in the states I mentioned above.

I think we can have a Senate with 60 Republicans, including 55+ solid conservatives, by 2010. But we need to make this a goal and stop wasting money on unnecessary or counter-productive battles. I, for one, return every donation request from the NRSC (which spends money attacking conservative challengers to RINOs such as Specter and Chafee) with a note letting them know that I'm sending my donations directly to conservative Republican Senate candidates such as Rick Santorum, Michael Steele, Stephen Laffey and Keith Butler, just as I sent donations directly to John Thune, Herman Cain and Pat Toomey last year.

Conservatives need information of which battles are worth fighting and which candidates are worth backing. FR does a good job pointing out which candidates to support in certain races, but we need more. We need a 527 group such as Club for Growth, but one that will emphasize social issues such as abortion, guns and marriage in states in which this will help the GOP win (such as the states I mentioned above)---maybe call it the Club for Life---so that a single conservative candidate may emerge as the frontrunner in the GOP primary and not allow a RINO to sneak through with 30% of the vote because the conservative vote was split among 4 candidates. But most of all we need to take advantage of any little slip-up by Senate Democrats to gain these seats one by one.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.