[Congressman Billybob]

Damned fine analysis. Thank you for taking the time to break this down for the folks on FreeRepublic.

P.S. My primary is over, but because of certain legal and ethical problems, the incumbent, Charles Taylor may withdraw/be forced out, and I am in the running to be chosen as the replacement nominee for Congress in the 11th District of NC. For more information, see the article below, and my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

[Phocion]

Many of the Democratic senators in the red states are either "conservative" Democrats, or among the most popular senators in the country. People Nelson, Byrd, Bayh, or the North Dakota senators would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to topple.

[KentuckyWoman]

Better change Tennessee to one Conservative senator and one RINO. Bill Frist is NOT a conservative and just spearheaded legalizing the tidal-wave of illegals from south of our border. Of course, he has his eyes set on the White House but, as someone from his home state, I can guarantee that he'll follow in Al Gore's footsteps by NOT winning that home state should actually get the Republican nomination and he KNOWS it.

[derSchurfer]

You might as well put Warner in the RINO category too. I would only count on Allen from Virginia to vote Conservative. Warner went with the DemocRATS on every vote for S. 2611 (AMNESTY Bill).

[Joe Brower]

"5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM "

I have to offer this correction to FL: Martinez is a RINO. He is no conservative.

I say this as one who worked heavily for his campaign in 2004. I will not be supporting or voting for him again.

[TSchmereL]

Here is my analysis, copied from another thread:
As ironic as it may be, assuming the House holds firm on its tougher, close-the-border-first immigration bill, the Republicans might just lose the Senate but retain control of the House!
This is the exact opposite of what most Democrat pundits have been predicting might happen. They have mostly written off the Senate, but somehow see opportunities in the House.
It is not an outcome I want to see, but considering public opinion regarding the "Amnesty Bill," and other factors, it is actually more likely that the Republicans could lose the Senate but not the House in 2006.
(I actually don't think the Republicans will lose either chamber of Congress, as I explained using a study by Jay Cost here. If you can't switch the Senate, you can forget about switching the House.)
The result of such an outcome would be a vitriolic Democrat majority in the Senate that is unable to provide its base with the much hoped for impeachment proceedings against the President because such proceedings must begin in the House.
Then, after the Democrat Majority in the Senate has had about two years to make a holy, ass-clown show of itself, and the Democrats inevitably nominate the fatally flawed Hillary Clinton to run in 2008, we might have a real Conservative Republican Presidential candidate with popular coat tails broad enough to replace the RINO majority in the Senate with real Conservative Senators.

[B.O. Plenty]

Bump for after Church

[Talking_Mouse]

I like your analysis, however we have a chance in 2006 to move MD from two Liberals to 1 Liberal and a Moderate RINO (to possible Conservative) with Lt. Gov. Steele becoming Sen. Steele.

Having lived in MD I see this as a thing to be greatly desired.

[mafree]

Very good analysis and breakdown. One reason why liberals and RINOS stay in place in some red and purple states is because they bring home the pork. What true conservative voters in those states have to ask themselves is this: is the pork worth keeping RINOs and libs in office?

[EDINVA]

slight correction: VA doesn't have 2 conservative Senators; we have Allen (Conservative) and Warner (RINO)

[Hardastarboard]

See, here's your problem my FRiend. We can't be just throwing these people out of office. They are much more important to this country than just our petty little concerns. They are the elite, our rulers. The elections are a mere formality at this point, and as soon as they can politely do away with them, they certainly will. Then the ignorant peasants will stop bothering them, and they can go about doing the people's business. Don't you understand that?

[KoRn]

Outstanding take on things! If you aren't already, you should do things like that for a living.

What has always made things difficult are 'conservative' Democrats winning in 'red states'. Even if the democrats may be conservative on social issues, they still go to DC and elect people like Pelosi and Reid to leadership positions, and continue to support the socialist oriented wealth redistribution scheme.

[traviskicks]

check this out

[FreeReign]

Great post.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I object to your characterization of certain Republican Senators as RINOs. Norm Coleman of MN comes readily to mind. He has voted conservative pretty much across the board, with only a couple of exceptions. I am ecstatic that we have a pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax cuts, pro-military, pro-WOT Republican Senator representing a state that has not voted for the Republican presidential nominee since 1972 and which held President Bush to 45.5% in 2000 and 47.6% in 2004. As Senator Gregg has been a solid conservative as well; we are very fortunate to have two good conservative Senators from a "purple" state such as NH when the state's two U.S. Representatives are RINOs. And as bad as DeWine has been on a few issues, he is not a RINO, and certainly far less deserving of the label than the contemptible Arlen Specter. Same goes for McCain, Graham and Hagel; they have been huge disappointments on a couple of issues, but for the most part are solid conservatives. The RINOs in the Senate, from the most liberal to the least, are Lincoln Chafee, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Arlen Specter. The ultraliberal Chafee we can get rid of in this year's primaries, and as I have written before we'd be better off without Chafee even if an admitted Democrat were elected to replace him (although I think that Steve Laffey has a real chance of winning in November). Snowe and Collins aren't quite as reprehensible as Chafee and come from states that keep getting more and more Democrat and where it would be better difficult to find someone to beat them in the primary and then win the general election; until a conservative or at least moderate-to-conservative comes along with proven ability of winning in Maine, we may be stuck with the RINO sisters. As for Specter, we blew our chance of getting rid of him in 2004, and we're stuck with him until 2010 (assuming he lives that long). I hope that Governor Swann endorses Pat Toomey in 2010 and that we finally replace Specter with a real conservative. Among the Senators with disappointing records that fall short of RINO territory, I think the only ones worth going after are Graham and Hagel, who represent two of the most conservative states in the Union. We really can't expect to do much better than Gordon Smith in Democrat-leaning OR, and we'd need heavyweights such as Kasich or Blackwell to take down DeWine and Voinovich in GOP-leaning OH. As for McCain, I'm hoping he'll retire soon, since he'd be very tough to beat in a primary and if we do defeat him it might throw the seat to the Democrats. To have conservative control of the Senate, we need to elect Republicans from states that vote heavily GOP in presidential elections, such as ND, SD, MT, AR, NE, LA and WV. That can be accomplished by (i) nominating socially conservative, economically moderate-to-conservative candidates, (ii) convincing proven vote-getters to run against seemingly entrenched incumbents, and (iii) spending money on those races. John Thune's victory over Tom Daschle is the model to follow. We need SD Governor Rounds to take out Tim Johnson in 2008 and for both ex-Governor Schaefer (sp?) and Governor Hoeven to take out the liberal twins of ND. We need Governor Huckabee to take out Pryor in 2008 or (if he insists on running for President) Lincoln in 2010. And we need similar top-tier candidates to run in the other conservative states that keep electing liberal Democrats. Other than conservative Democrat Ben Nelson of NE, the other Democrat Senators from these states can easily be characterized as liberal by revealing to the ignorant public exactly what they voted for and against. In 2002, Saxby Chambliss used very effective 10- or 15-second ads about particular liberal votes by Max Cleland, ending with "Now why would he do that?" that convinced Georgians to throw out their conservative-talking, liberal-voting Senator. A similar strategy should work in the states I mentioned above. I think we can have a Senate with 60 Republicans, including 55+ solid conservatives, by 2010. But we need to make this a goal and stop wasting money on unnecessary or counter-productive battles. I, for one, return every donation request from the NRSC (which spends money attacking conservative challengers to RINOs such as Specter and Chafee) with a note letting them know that I'm sending my donations directly to conservative Republican Senate candidates such as Rick Santorum, Michael Steele, Stephen Laffey and Keith Butler, just as I sent donations directly to John Thune, Herman Cain and Pat Toomey last year. Conservatives need information of which battles are worth fighting and which candidates are worth backing. FR does a good job pointing out which candidates to support in certain races, but we need more. We need a 527 group such as Club for Growth, but one that will emphasize social issues such as abortion, guns and marriage in states in which this will help the GOP win (such as the states I mentioned above)---maybe call it the Club for Life---so that a single conservative candidate may emerge as the frontrunner in the GOP primary and not allow a RINO to sneak through with 30% of the vote because the conservative vote was split among 4 candidates. But most of all we need to take advantage of any little slip-up by Senate Democrats to gain these seats one by one.

[hedgetrimmer]

My advice?

Become a poll watcher and make sure the elections in your district are fair. Fight vote fraud, counting fraud and eligibility fraud. Get rid of voting machines. Make sure the counting machines are calibrated correctly and recheck them for accuracy after the count. Then see how big a difference it makes.

[demkicker]

Excellent post, thanks!

[EverOnward]

Bookmarked for a great reference. Thank you!

[heights]

Wall Of Shame

[RobFromGa]

you might find this thread of interest