Posted on 06/15/2006 11:58:44 PM PDT by dvwjr
The death of al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq comes at a time when more Americans than ever think the war in Iraq was a mistake, according to AP-Ipsos polling.
The poll was taken Monday through Wednesday before the news broke that terrorist leader al-Zarqawi was killed by U.S. troops.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Here is Will's first "drive-by" attempt, he was probably thrown a little off by the cheers of the Iraqi media audible on his TV tuned to CNN... Might have distracted him from his important task.
"The death of al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq comes at a time when more Americans than ever think the war in Iraq was a mistake, according to AP-Ipsos polling."
"The poll was taken Monday through Wednesday before the news broke that terrorist leader al-Zarqawi was killed by U.S. troops. That polling right before the death of al-Zarqawi found that 59 percent of adults say the United States made a mistake in going to war in Iraq - the highest level yet in AP-Ipsos polling to say that. Approval of President Bush's handling of Iraq dipped to 33 percent - the lowest level yet on that measure in the poll."
"Bush's overall job approval remained at 33 percent - still at the lowest level of his presidency."
Source: Forbes.com: AP Story (06/08/06 10:50AM) "Poll: U.S. Disapproves of War in Iraq", Will Lester and AP News Survey specialist Dennis Junius.
Except that is not what the AP/Ipsos poll results for June 5-7, 2006 reported. Even though the AP/Ipsos poll was conducted before the al-Zarqawi termination, Bush was still up 2 percentage points to 35% in this June AP/Ipsos poll...
Ooops... REWRITE!!!
(AP) "The death of al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq came as more Americans than ever thought the war in Iraq was a mistake, according to AP-Ipsos polling."
"The poll, taken Monday through Wednesday before news broke that U.S. forces had killed Zarqawi, found that 59 percent of adults say the United States made a mistake in going to war in Iraq _ the highest level yet in AP-Ipsos polling."
"Approval of President Bush's handling of Iraq dipped to 33 percent, a new low. His overall job approval was 35 percent, statistically within range of his low of 33 percent last month. The poll of 1,003 adults has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points."
Source: CBS News: AP Story (06/08/06 - later that same day) "Poll: U.S. Disapproves of War in Iraq", Will Lester and AP News Survey specialist Dennis Junius.
Oh. So it was Bush at 35%, not 33%. But Will Lester wasn't wrong - it's just that he was within the poll's statistical margin of error... Strange, Will Lester has never before been concerned enough to mention that Bush's job approval drop in April of 1%, or 3% in May were also 'statistically with range' of the previous month's numbers - but this new qualifier must only apply when Bush's poll numbers are rising...
What changed from last month's AP/Ipsos poll in May of 2006? Now their June sample of Republicans and Democrats are now separated by 16 percentage points vs last month's sample where the difference was 9 percentage points... In a defensive move, AP-Ipsos reveals in this months polling results that their initial screen of poll respondents consisted of 27%R, 35%D, 24%I, 13%None, 1%NotSure. Compare this to last month's 28%R, 34%D, 25%I, 12%None, 1%NotSure. This month the Republicans, Democrats and Independents lose/gain about 1 point each, close to last month. Now maybe its just me, but if someone does not identify as a Republican or Democrat - they are by these poll definitions an Independent (it does not matter if they are communist, socialist, vegan, green, etc). So what AP-Ipsos has done is to start with a sample that was 27%R, 35%D, 38%I - then they push 'Independents' for leaning Republican or Democrat, if they don't the person is classified as a hard-core 'Independent'. Looks like AP has salted the sample again by hiding Democrats in the overly large 'Independent' category.
Just to add to the media polling bias, here is the recent history of the "ever-reliable" AP/Ipsos polls (January 2005 - June 2006) and their political Party ID sample composition for each poll. The AP/Ipsos polls push Independents to identify with either Republicans or Democrats, only the 'hard-core' remain as self-identified 'Independents'...
This is an mixed ADULTS and Registered Voters poll, not just registered voters. Note the consistent gap in the party ID between Democrats and Republicans, strange given that the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls identified 37% Republicans, 37% Democrats and 26% Independents among the voting American public. The Republicans have achieved voter self-identification parity with the Democrats for the first time since the late 1920s.
This series of AP/Ipsos poll result on Presidential job approval and the American public views on the 'direction of the country' was as always based on a skewed demographic sample that has 'averaged' 41% Republican, 50% Democrat and 9% Independent composition since January 2005. I think that when the AP poll fails to get the results they desire, they 'play' with both the registered voters party self-identification composition sample and vary the un-registered voter portion of the poll sample. Since the Registered voter portion of the poll averages around 79% and the 'breathing' voter averages around 21% you can see they have quite a bit of "statistical slack" to play with to get the results they require...
Note: The AP/Ipsos polls are published in PDF format and become unavailable after one month. You must be a 'premium' member to access those PDF files on their web site. No consistent links are provided for that reason.
Source: AP-Ipsos Poll, June 5-7, 2006 Project #81-5139-??
The only way that the Bush job approval rating will be in the low 30s in July is if AP/Ipsos has the Republican portion of the July polling sample also in the low 30s. Nah, too obvious - even for AP...
Hope this helps,
dvwjr
This is GREAT news. :) Maybe someone will vote Democratic in '06. :)
Anyone? ...please?
(/sarcasm)
The Dems KNOW these numbers are cooked, and yet they're making strategy as if they're genuine, a recipe for disaster.
These poll takers need to grow up and get a real job.
Did they poll our troops in Iraq and ask them how they thought the war was going? :-)
AP/IPSOS, PLEASE GIVE ME A BREAK ON THESE SKEWED BS POLLS NOW!
The Independents appear about right now (6-10%) but NO WAY IN HELL there is a 16% advantage of Rats over Republican. NEVER HAS BEEN, NEVER WILL BE!!!
How long have they been doing this? I have only been paying attention to the polls since just before the 2000 general election and this has been the MO on polling since then. The donks lost every one of those elections.
First rule: never believe your own PR.
Second rule: manipulation results in lack of credibility.
With the internet, political statisticians can interpret the polling methodology and explain it clearly to the rest of us. Let the donks believe the polls. They will stay home and we will vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.