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To: Torie; calcowgirl; FairOpinion; AuH2ORepublican; JohnnyZ; Clintonfatigued; Kuksool; AntiGuv; ...

"That is pretty impressive research, but how many "RINO" governors had "non RINO" Pubbie lieutenant governors? Will or will not McClintock being elected L. governor increase his chances of becoming governor?"

Nationally, I'm sure many RINO Governors had non-RINO Lieutenant-Governors, but it doesn't change the outcome of the above research.

But lets briefly take a look at California and its Governors/elections of the past 100 years:




CA Gubernatorial Elections since 1906:
1906: James Norris Gillett (Conservative), retired
1910: Hiram Johnson (Progressive/RINO)
1914: Reelected, resigned for Senate seat 1916
1918: William D. Stephens (Progressive) incumbent Lt Gov succeeding Johnson upon his resignation
1922: Friend William Richardson (Conservative)
1926: Clement C. Young (Former Progressive/Semi-RINO?)
1930: James "Sunny Jim" Rolph, Jr. (RINO)
1934: Frank Meriam (Conservative), succeeding Rolph upon his death, defeated in 1938
1938: Culbert Olson (D)
1942: Earl Warren (Initially Moderate, became RINO), resigned in 1953 to become Chief Justice
1946: Reelected Warren
1950: Reelected Warren
1954: Goodwin Knight (RINO), Warren's Lt Gov who was the incumbent, ran for Senate in 1958 in the "great job-swap switcheroo" with Bill Knowland running for Governor
1958: Edmund "Pat" Brown (D) d. Bill Knowland (Conservative)
1962: Brown reelected over ex-VP Richard Nixon
1966: Ronald Reagan (Conservative) d. Pat Brown
1970: Reagan reelected over Speaker Jess Unruh (D)
1974: Jerry Brown (D) d. Houston Flournoy (Establishment GOPer)
1978: Brown reelected over Evelle Younger (Establishment GOPer)
1982: George Deukmejian (Conservative) d. Tom Bradley (D)
1986: Deukmejian over Bradley in rematch
1990: Pete Wilson (RINO) d. Dianne Feinstein (D)
1994: Wilson over Kathleen Brown (D)
1998: Gray Davis (D) d. Dan Lungren (Conservative)
2002: Davis d. Bill Simon, Jr. (Conservative)
2003 recall: Arnold Schwarzenegger (RINO) d. Davis

For some of these, it is hard to ascertain through today's prism of issues where some of these folks exactly stood. In the case of Gillett, he was pro-big business (an anti-Progressive). Hiram Johnson was a notorious character, who clearly exhibited RINO tendencies and delighted in sabotaging the GOP where it suited him. Stephens had served as his Lieutenant, but appeared more moderate.

Richardson was an unapologetic tightwad who consistently vetoed spending increases (whom I'd personally consider one of the best Governors in the 20th century) who said (this in the mid '20s) that education was "too costly." He left a huge surplus when he left office after a single term. We could use this man today !

Young was Richardson's former Progressive Lieutenant-Governor, though he was clearly a bit more Conservative than the likes of Johnson. He failed to get back the office later.

Rolph was the long-serving San Francisco Mayor, and a social and economic liberal, but nowhere near as bad as FDR would be, suggesting the way to alleviate the Depression was a "2 week holiday" for everybody. He died before he could complete his term.

Frank Merriam was a carpetbagger from Iowa who had served in office there at the turn-of-the-century and moved his way up through the political ladder in California, and he was clearly more Conservative than Rolph when he was Lieutenant-Governor. It was the same year he became Governor that the epic battle between himself and the Socialist Upton Sinclair, who captured the Democrat nod (forcing the regular Democrat establishment apparatus to endorse Merriam). Merriam, ironically, lost in the excellent GOP year of 1938 for another term.

Culbert Olson was the first Democrat to win in 44 years, but he was a Socialist Sinclairite and could easily be regarded as the Gray Davis of his era, though he successfully dodged numerous recall attempts, ultimately losing reelection.

Earl Warren was a "regular Republican" of the era when first elected, the tough former Alameda County D.A. and State Attorney-General. He gave scant indication as to what his horrific tenure on the Supreme Court would bring.

Warren's Lieutenant succeeding him was the generally non-offensive "business as usual" RINO Goodwin Knight (who generally conceded his position as highest office-holding Republican in California to the GOP Senate leader, Bill Knowland). Knowland convince Knight to swap jobs in 1958 (since Knowland had failed to become part of the majority again after a brief year and a half during Ike's first two years, chafing under LBJ's iron fist), figuring he'd accomplish more as Governor (presuming he would use it as a springboard to the Presidency). This grave miscalculation on the part of Knowland made CA a Democrat-leaning state effectively ever since (a good question remains what would've happened if both had stayed put in their respective jobs, they might've ended up reelected).

Obviously no need to summarize starting with everyone after Pat Brown, since most of us are familiar with that.

In any event, analyzing the 26 elections for Governor in the past 100 years in California, only 2 Lieutenant-Governors were elected outright to the job without being elevated by death or resignation. One was Clement Young in 1926, the other was Gray Davis in 1998. Only Young was a Republican, and more liberal than his predecessor, Friend Richardson. Only Frank Merriam was clearly more Conservative than the Governor he served under, but he might never have become Governor were it not for Sunny Jim Rolph's death.

In any event, using those statistics, McClintock as a sitting Lieutenant-Governor has a 1 in 13 chance of reaching the office, but as a Conservative succeeding a liberal RINO in a general election, would be unprecedented in California (hence, zero odds) in the last century.

As I stated with my prior analysis, RINO Governors remain a hazard far greater than any Democrat incumbent would be to a Conservative Republican challenger looking to succeed (or defeat) the incumbent. Ah-nold is far more in a position to exploit and use McClintock than the latter is to do so of Ah-nold.

From McClintock's standpoint, it would benefit him to see Ah-nold lose so he becomes the de facto Republican leader in California, and serve as a thorn in the side of a rabid leftist like Angelides (a la Mike Curb under Jerry Brown's 2nd term, the last Republican (1979-83) Lieutenant-Governor to date). A likely internecine battle between an incumbent Angelides and "Aztlan Tony" Villaraigosa in 2010, would also serve to bolster McClintock's chances as well.


60 posted on 06/17/2006 10:12:02 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Your analysis is so delusional, it doesn't even merit a response, since you apparently are unable to understand CA politics or even common sense, trying to convince people that a huge Republican loss and a major Dem win is actually desirable.


62 posted on 06/17/2006 10:14:57 PM PDT by FairOpinion (Dem Foreign Policy: SURRENDER to our enemies. Real conservatives don't help Dems get elected.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

My own preference would be for both Arnold and McClintock to win in November, and have Arnold resign in January 2010 to commence his Senate campaign against Boxer. McClintock would thus have 6 months under his belt as Governor before the 2010 GOP primary, making it very difficult for a RINO to defeat him, and would have been Governor for 11 months before the general election. Arnold is smart enough to know that he needs McClintock on the ballot in 2010 in order to beat Boxer, and I think he wants to continue in politics given the fact that he'll be too old to make action films anymore.


68 posted on 06/17/2006 10:48:45 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Ditto.


69 posted on 06/18/2006 11:02:04 AM PDT by Torie
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