I don't understand everything in this 8 pm NWS dicussion update, but I understand enough to be concerned.
AM VERY CONCERNED BY THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS
TO HAVE GRASPED (IE...FORECAST CONDITIONS AT 00Z) THE SITUATION.
GFS PROGGING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INFLOW THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. IT HAS CORRECTLY PREDICTED THIS PER HGX-VWP...PALESTINE PROFILER...AND LA PORTE PROFILERS. BY 06Z THE GFS PROGGING 850MB SSW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO A WHOPPING 45-50 KNOTS OVER LAKE LIVINGSTON- CROCKETT REGION! COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED VERY SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE LOW- MID- LEVEL CIRCULATION WE COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH MORE RAIN.
THESE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME EXTREMELY EFFICIENT PRECIP- INTENSE RAIN RATES...3-5" PER HOUR RATES. FROM BRAZORIA/GALVESTON COAST NORTH ACROSS HARRIS AND INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING STILL IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS...
The GFS model is a good one. It was pretty accurate with TS Alberto and it was pretty good most of last year.
You can only judge these things for sure in hindsight, but it's gotten the attention of the NWS, and now of me.
I was just looking at the radar and thought, "I guess it's all over." That's what I get for thinking!