Just to expound on my 49 If we could wave a magic wand and exclude all outside influence from the continent of Africa, the result would be at least 500 years of bloody genocidal civil war same as europe. And no I don't have any answer, except marxist socialists breed death.
I doubt that number will change much under Chinese/Arab occupation. The big difference is that some of it will be exported because somehow it will all be America's fault.
True,Marxist socialists breed death but a lot of death is bred by plain old tribal and religious antagonisms going back hundreds of years.
The bottom line is that there IS no answer.Africa is going down.