Posted on 07/06/2006 12:57:55 AM PDT by Lurker
Thanks Smokin' Joe.
The vaccine problem is insurmountable, in my opinion. If and when the pandemic begins, we'll just have to deal with it. Prevention through vaccination won't be possible for a very long time.
By Ahmed ElAmin
12/07/2006 - A World Bank report outlines the dire economic effects avian influenza is having on Europe’s poultry flocks and demand for the meat.
The report outlines the projected economic consequences and loss of life due to a possible avian influenza pandemic worldwide. Such warnings are serving to increase consumer fears about the safety of poultry meat throughout the bloc.
Consumption of poultry meat has dropped by more than half in some EU states, with 300,000 tonnes and more in storage across the bloc, according to previous EU estimates.
While no human case of the H5N1 virus has occurred in the EU, scientists worldwide have been worried that H5N1, which can pass from poultry to humans, may mutate so that it can be transmitted from human to human and start a influenza pandemic. Worldwide, governments are starting to step up their precautionary measures against the disease as more scientific evidence points to coming pandemic.
For example, a UK government department said yesterday it will order a further ten million doses of avian influenza vaccine for possible use in poultry and other captive birds.
The measure is being taken as a precaution in case the UK suffers a large outbreak of avian influenza in its domestic poultry flock.
The country's chief veterinary officer recommended the step be taken as a precaution, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) stated in a press release.
The measure is being taken “to ensure that Defra has every tool available to tackle an avian influenza outbreak, in light of uncertainties about the future spread and nature of the virus”, the department stated.
Defra already has 2.3 million doses of vaccine bought earlier this year for a possible preventive vaccination of zoo birds.
The World Bank has estimated that a severe avian flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy about 3.1 per cent of gross domestic product - around US$1.25 trillion on a world gross domestic product of $40 trillion.
The severe case scenario, prepared by the Bank's Development Economic Prospects Group, is based on a one per cent mortality rate – or about 70 million people.
Until now, the principal transmission of the H5N1 form of the bird flu virus has occurred between animals, and, to a very limited extent from animals to humans.
The principal costs have been felt in the rural or commercial poultry sectors of affected economies.
However, as these outbreaks continue and spread to new regions, they also increase the probability of a second stage, with human-to-human transmission and a global influenza pandemic, with enormously greater costs on a world scale, the World Bank report stated.
Until recently highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus had been concentrated in East Asia, where some 10 countries had experienced outbreaks since late 2003, the most serious in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and China.
In the last six to nine months, the virus has gone global, spreading to over 40 more countries.
In Western and Central Europe the majority of these new outbreaks have been among wild birds. But elsewhere, in South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, nearly all the new outbreaks have been among poultry.
Among the many things not fully understood about the disease is its mode of transmission, the report stated.
However it now appears that both wild birds and domestic poultry are involved in transmission, the latter through poultry trade, both legal and illegal or informal.
In most economies the impact has been relatively limited so far, mainly because the poultry sector is a relatively small part of the world economy, stated Milan Brahmbhatt, the bank's lead economist for East Asia.
There are direct production costs because of losses of poultry, due to the disease and to control measures such as culling birds, with impacts extending not only to farmers but also to upstream and downstream sectors such as poultry traders, feed mills, and breeding farms.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, over 200 million poultry have died or been culled since the end of 2003, mostly in East Asia.
The largest declines have occurred in Vietnam and Thailand, where they were equal to 15 per cent to 20 per cent of the stock of poultry.
Additional losses have occurred because of lower egg production and reduced activity in distribution channels.
There are also secondary or indirect impacts related to sharp shifts in market demand which result primarily from spontaneous efforts by consumers to reduce their perceived probability of becoming infected from eating the meat.
In Romania, for example, which has suffered about 100 outbreaks of the disease in poultry over recent months, domestic sales have fallen by 80 per cent, Brahmbhatt stated.
Many Romanian producers are on the verge of bankruptcy. In Iraq only 10 per cent of semi-commercial farms remain operational, and there have also been large losses in Turkey.
In France, Europe's leading poultry producer, producers hit by sharply lower demand reportedly lost 40 per cent of their income in the first quarter of 2006, he stated.
The poultry feed sector in Europe, which accounts for a turnover of $42bn, has been hit with a 40 per cent reduction in demand for poultry feed in some EU countries.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation projects an eight per cent to nine per cent fall in European poultry consumption this year, which is contributing to sharply lower prices and poultry producer incomes worldwide.
“Thus even in Brazil, which has not experienced an outbreak of the disease, weakening world demand and lower prices have induced the main suppliers to reduce production by 15 per cent this year,” Brahmbhatt stated.
Thailand, which is the only large net exporter of poultry in East Asia, had already experienced a 40 per cent fall in poultry exports in 2004 due to import restrictions in foreign markets on its uncooked, poultry exports.
“Exporters have managed to switch from uncooked to cooked poultry exports, which are not affected by trade restrictions, as a result of which exports began rebounding last year,” he stated.
The number of human infections and deaths reported to WHO has accelerated in the past six months. There were 41 deaths in all of 2005, but 54 in only the first half of 2006, more than twice the pace of last year.
Unable To Stop Pandemic, Health Community Braces For Worst
OUTLOOK: An extreme outbreak of bird flu would result in millions dead and huge losses in work force.
BY BRANDON STAHL
NEWS TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
What would a worst-case pandemic scenario look like?
According to Dr. Linda Van Etta, a St. Luke's epidemiologist and one of Minnesota's foremost authorities on bird flu, it would start with a strand of bird flu virus, or H5NI, mutating somewhere -- most likely in Asia -- where many people live with ducks, chickens or pigs in their homes.
It would probably mutate in a child, where many viruses mutate, and then spread from human to human.
From there, it would be a matter of time before bird flu circulated the globe.
Van Etta, who is part of an advisory committee to Gov. Tim Pawlenty with the Minnesota Department of Health, said health workers would have two weeks to detect the strain, quarantine the infected and stop it from spreading.
Even then, it probably would be too late.
"The stars would have to be aligned," she said. "Our odds of stopping it are not really good."
If it becomes pandemic, the flu could resemble less-severe outbreaks that happened in 1957 or 1968. Or it could devastate the globe like the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, the worst in the past 100 years, when millions died.
John Agwunobi, assistant secretary for the Health and Human Services Department, said severe bird flu pandemic plans are based on the 1918 flu.
In two weeks to a month, 25 to 30 percent of the globe's population could become infected, Agwunobi said.
From the time they contract the virus, Van Etta said victims would start showing symptoms within two to eight days.
Many people would experience the familiar symptoms from common strains of the flu, such as fever, headaches, cough and chills. It could then become more severe, with vomiting and diarrhea; others could start bleeding from their noses and gums.
People who are going to die from bird flu will die within nine to 10 days after the onset of symptoms, Van Etta said.
"If you get through the nine to 10 days, you'll probably live," she said.
Nearly 2 million Americans would die, Van Etta said, including 30,000 in Minnesota, with more than half of those in the Twin Cities area.
About 750,000 would require medical care, with about 175,000 needing hospitalization. But with only 16,000 total hospital beds in the state -- and many hospital workers becoming ill -- Van Etta said people would go without services.
To reduce the spread, many people would be in mandatory quarantine in their homes from two weeks to three months. There, they'd have to care for the sick and depend on their stockpiled food and water supplies, which Van Etta said the majority of people are not prepared to do.
Chaos could set in; food and water would be in high demand. If severe shortages occurred, stores could be ransacked and looted.
Workers would stay home in droves, drastically affecting local, state and national economies.
"Every company should anticipate 30 percent of their workers will be gone for at least three weeks," Van Etta said.
That would tax even the most basic utilities.
"Say we lost the people keeping the switchboard at Minnesota Power. We would need to find a way to keep the power on," Van Etta said. If water pipes burst, "what if the crews to repair those suddenly aren't there?"
For now, it's a long way from that happening.
Only a few cases of human-to-human contraction of bird flu have been reported, according to the Centers for Disease Control. But the worst-case scenarios are why Van Etta and others are urging preparedness now.
Van Etta cites a comment made by Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt:
"(He said) how well you do during the pandemic depends on how well officials prepared and how well you're prepared as an individual."
During a pandemic, could we see more deaths from murders and starvation/dehydration than the virus?
Who will be in charge of the nukes in Pakistan, China, N Korea and etc. when the chaos hits and deaths skyrocket?
Multiple mutations in Indonesian bird flu strain
Jul 13, 8:17 AM ET
LONDON (Reuters) - Multiple mutations have been found in the H5N1 bird flu virus that killed seven family members in Indonesia although scientists are unsure of their significance, a leading science journal said on Thursday.
---
"The functional significance of the mutations isn't clear -- most of them seem unimportant," the journal Nature said in a report in the latest issue on Thursday.
---
Virologists contacted by Nature said part of the reason the significance of the mutations is unclear is because withholding the information has hampered the study of the virus.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060713/wl_nm/birdflu_mutations_dc_1
_____________________________________________________
Top animal health official reassigned over bird flu in
Indonesia
Thu Jul 13, 1:27 PM ET
JAKARTA (AFP) - Indonesia's top animal health official has been reassigned over his agency's poor performance in tackling the deadly bird flu virus.
http://www.yahoo.com
_____________________________________________________
On May 3, 2006, The Bush Administration Announced The Implementation Plan For The National Strategy For Pandemic Influenza.
On December 30, 2005, the President signed the Department of Defense, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations to Address Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and Pandemic Influenza Act, 2006. The Act includes $3.8 billion for pandemic influenza preparedness, the first installment of the President's request to launch these critical activities
http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/pandemicflu/
________________________________________________________
[Federal Register: February 3, 2006 (Volume 71, Number 23)]
[Notices]
[Page 5909-5965]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr03fe06-135]
[[Page 5909]]
SUMMARY: This notice revises program apportionment or allocation
amounts published in the December 20, 2005, FTA notice entitled ``FTA
Fiscal Year 2006 Apportionments and Allocations.'' The revisions are
required because Public Law 109-148, the Department of Defense,
Emergency Supplemental Appropriations to Address Hurricanes in the Gulf
of Mexico,
and Pandemic Influenza Act, 2006,
mandates an across-the-board rescission of one percent
of every program, project, and activity
in fiscal year 2006. In addition, this notice identifies other changes
or corrections to the December 20, 2005, notice. The notice also
identifies the States selected for participation in a Section 5310
Pilot Program.
http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/01jan20061800/edocket.access.gpo.gov/2006/06-961.htm
____________________________________________________________________
Pandemic Influenza Act, 2006
Fact Sheet: Advancing the Nation's Preparedness for Pandemic Influenza
http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/avian/avian_2006050303.htm
________________________________________________________________
Flu Vaccine Problems Possible This Fall
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has "heightened concern" that the nation will not receive all the seasonal influenza shots it needs this fall after the Food and Drug Administration's stern warning over contamination issues against Sanofi Pasteur, the country's largest flu vaccine maker.
Sanofi, which is producing 50 million doses of injectable influenza vaccine at its Swiftwater, Pa., manufacturing plant, was slapped by FDA last week for what the regulatory agency called "a number of significant objectionable conditions" at the plant. Among them were findings that 11 lots of Fluzone concentrate used to make the seasonal flu doses were contaminated with an unnamed microbe, out of 250 to 300 lots needed to make the promised vaccine.
"We are concerned," said Dr. Lance Rodewald, director of the CDC's immunization services division. "We are always concerned. Now, concern is heightened."
Since problems have hit the nation's seasonal flu vaccine program in four of the last six years, Rodewald said CDC is watching Sanofi "very closely," not just because the firm is America's largest producer, but because it also produces vaccine for children under age 4, one of the groups at highest risk for seasonal influenza.
The FDA would not identify the contaminant but agreed with Sanofi that the problem appeared unlikely to prevent Sanofi Pasteur from making its 50 million doses. That amount is about 40 percent of the 120 million total flu shots expected for the United States this year.
"With regard to the upcoming influenza season, we are confident that we will meet our manufacturing goal of approximately 50 million doses of influenza vaccine for the U.S. market," said Sanofi spokesman Len Lavenda. "... The amount of material impacted is minimal relative to our overall manufacturing capacity, and none of this material has been or will be used in the manufacture of this year's vaccine."
Sanofi's problems were reminiscent of the 2004 contamination issues at a Chiron Corp., flu vaccine plant in Liverpool, England, which cost the United States 48 million of the 100 million doses it expected that year. The unexpected shortfall stunned public health officials and physicians across the country, created sharp demand for vaccine and caused the CDC to reorder its priorities for who should get vaccinated.
Dr. Walter Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, questioned whether the FDA knows the source of Sanofi's contamination because he found the warning letter "too vague."
"The big concern to me is whether Sanofi and FDA have an idea of what is causing the contamination," he said. "I don't know if they have suspicions, or if they have no idea."
Dr. David Elder, the FDA's director of enforcement, said the warning letter was intended to alert Sanofi that it needed "prompt corrections."
Dr. Karen Midthun, deputy director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said, "Sanofi hasn't fixed everything" but is expected to do so. "We remain concerned with the overall quality issues . . . we cannot know for sure if the problem has been corrected,"
http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=106&sid=844742
Ping to # 67.
Sometimes it's easier to keep up by clicking on the numbers in the last line of your ping on the "comments" page, e.g. as shown below (68 of 68):
Posted by LucyT to blam; Smokin' Joe; Lurker; Judith Anne; alienken
On News/Activism 07/13/2006 7:16:39 PM MDT · 68 of 68
Is it just me, or does it seem as though the level of warnings has gone up a notch? Makes you wonder what TPTB know about China, for instance, or Indonesia, for instance, that the rest of us don't...
Whatever, bird flu will take a back seat to the mideast for a good while...
I've suspected for a while that the level of 'alarm' (warning) is being orchestrated.
Remember a while back when I noted that the term, 'It's a matter of when, not if' seemed to disappear from all the reports? And, I asked then if 'they' were worried that they'd scared us too much too early?
I've seen and heard less about BF in my regular travels lately.
I have noticed that September has begun to turn up in many reports as a possible arrival date for the flu in North America.
Yep.
Companies stock up on bird flu drug, maker says
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) - More than 100 companies of all sizes have contacted Roche, maker of influenza drug Tamiflu, about getting supplies for their employees in case of a bird-flu pandemic, the company says.
Governments around the world have been building stockpiles of the drug, which has been shown to help treat human bird-flu patients, but experts are urging individuals and companies to make their own preparations.
"To date, more than 100 corporations have contacted us about purchasing Tamiflu," Roche spokesman Terence Hurley told Reuters.
These include a "range of industries -- pharmaceuticals, financial, media and energy -- and sizes -- mom and pop operations to Fortune 500 companies", he added.
"We have filled close to 60 orders so far ranging from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands of treatment courses. We received a flurry of calls after the government released its pandemic plan recently."
The U.S. plan does not explicitly encourage companies to buy Tamiflu, a prescription drug. But it includes a checklist that suggests companies should do what they believe is necessary to protect employees and stay in business.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N13129143.htm
Ping to post 67 for further developments...
The longer the panic level stays down, the longer prices stay down. That is a plus for now, but bodes ill if we do have a pandemic. There will be fewer people prepared, and more reason for martial law in the end. This raises other questions I will refrain from asking for now.
I'll be darned, it just struck me, there will be a black market for Tamiflu at some future point. Or/and...this is a 'stick-up', give me your Tamiflu, lol.
You are welcome, you take care too, FRiend.
Are you expecting food prices to go up substancially? Is that what you're talking about?
:)FRiend
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