The Real Threat From North Korea

SpaceWar.com ^ | 07/07/06 | by Anthony H. Cordesman

[garbageseeker]

The same North Korean ICBM efforts that throw a rock at Alaska can throw a large nuclear warhead at every ally the United States has in Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are not only close allies, they are critical trading partners. The risk of a war in this part of the world would inevitably threaten Chinese involvement in some form, and possible bloc trade with much of China for an extended period even if China did not become involved. Our troops and our bases in most of Asia would be at hazard as well.

Americans need to stop thinking parochially and selfishly and start thinking strategically. North Korea does not have to be able to hit the United States with meaningful nuclear threats to do much to deter or damage the United States

[garbageseeker]

You hit the nail on the head.

[Frances_Marion]

We need to just go ahead and give Japan a nuke of their own....then there wouldn't be a vacuum there. And while we're at it, give them to Taiwan as well, since China facilitated the NK missile program in so many ways. Everytime little Kimmie doesn't get his way, he flings a missle over Japan. Japan threatens sanctions when NK kidnaps people right off of Japanese soil, NK "tests" a missile or threatens war. Japan is outraged when NK navy boats smuggle drugs and fire on Japanese boats in Japanese water, NK rattles their sabre. It's the same sh*t China has been pulling on Taiwan for years now, and I'm sick of it. Give them, and maybe even S. Korea, NUKES, and tell China and NK to go f*** themselves.

[garbageseeker]

It would be a little ironic giving a nuclear weapon to a country who had two nuclear bombs dropped on them? I honestly think that the population of Japan would not like that. The U.S.A. has given Japan the two PAC-III Patriot missile batteries with more to come. I think the United States would not allow Taiwan to have nuclear weapons because of the deep hatred between China and Taiwan. In addition, the Chinese would raise hell if Taiwan would have the atom bomb. I would increase tensions more between the two nations to the point where China might invade Taiwan. We provide more than adequate support(including nuclear forces) in that region with both the Seventh Fleet and bomber bases in both Guam and Okinawa.

[Frances_Marion]

Why would they invade a nuclear armed Taiwan?

It would be ironic giving Japan nukes, but they're more than capable of developing their own...it would exceed irony if they were hit by another one, this time from NK.

It's undoubtedly costing us a fortune keeping Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan secure from their volatile, sabre-rattling nuclear neighbors.

And...it looks like Taiwan has decided to do some "missile tests" of its own, I say good for them. No longer sitting by idly while China fires "test missiles" a few miles off your shore. Free nations should be have the ability to defend themselves against totalitarian ones. http://reuters.myway.com/article/20060706/2006-07-06T090829Z_01_TP235236_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-TAIWAN-CHINA-MISSILES-DC.html

[kinetics]

Why would they invade a nuclear armed Taiwan?

Because Taiwan doesn't have many missiles that could launch that nuke to China. The range of these missiles are also limited. The day Taiwan says it has a nuke (or China finds out it has a nuke), China will invade.

[garbageseeker]

bump

[alarm rider]

Firstly, I am not a member at DU, I am a former member of the USAF and I served in Korea.

NK is a very small place, a very poor place and their total assets are slim. What they do have is a bunch of troops, infantry and a few launce sites and hardened storage facilities.

If you use air assets to take out the launch facilities, they chances of them rebuilding are very slim.

Perhaps you might want to read a profile before you shoot your big, fat mouth off.

[John Lenin]

I still think it is idiotic to start a nuke war with a country that has nothing to lose in launching them.

[alarm rider]

I did not mention the word "nuke", I said destroy their launch sites. That can be accomplished in many ways. The most efficient would be high altitude air strikes. Naval or ground forces could also be

If you take out their launch facilities, they cannot launch squat. Also, I believe the jury is still out as to their "nuke war" resources.

[alarm rider]

Read "Naval and ground forces could also be utilized".

[John Lenin]

With what troops are we going to fight this war once the Chinese send in reinforcements ?

[ReignOfError]

I heard a fellow on the Glenn Beck show yesterday call in and say that every time North Korea launches something, the US radar systems (and presumably the defense systems in Alaska) light up to track the NK missile.

He said the Chinese watch this with their own systems (including satellites) to determine ways to evade or neutralize them. I don't know how accurate this comment is, but Beck said he would investigate it.

If this is true, then China and NK are in cahoots, as most of us think they are.

It's not proof of collusion. If anything -- a North Korean missile, a stray airliner, a satellite falling out of orbit -- lights up the DEW grid, the Chinese are watching (as are the Russians, the Indians, probably even the Japanese). I'm sure our own assets were watching the Chinese watching the launch.

[justa-hairyape]

Perhaps the Chinese troops are already there. Wearing different uniforms. Unfortunately, it is beginning to appear as if the North Koreans are the Chinese. Perhaps Kim Little Dong is the true face and the true voice of China. Actually a well thought out strategy. China is threatening an entire region through its North Korean Drone. Two Faces. One China. When we decide to deal with one face, the other face gets off scot-free. They can use that ploy against Japan and South Korea, but not Taiwan. China is actually as vulnerable to Taiwan as we are vulnerable to Cuba.

[John Lenin]

This is China and Russia's idea to put a kink into the Iran negotiations who we really need to take out before they get nukes.

[justa-hairyape]

This is China and Russia's idea to put a kink into the Iran negotiations who we really need to take out before they get nukes.

You are probably right about that. Just read the article about Russia recently trying to sell the North Koreans technology to help them hide their nukes. Would not put it past the Russian 'Mongoloids' to help create problems between the US and China also. China really needs to demonstrate that it can control Kim.

[alarm rider]

While there is no doubt that NK is a Chinese client state, and has been since the Korean conflict of the 50', this is a different era.

The Chinese have developed and are developing a type of capitalism that requires openness of markets. To defend a small, poor client state for the sake of greater Communism is just not, IMO in the cards.

The Chinese have mega investments, both social and economic in the Olympics that are scheduled for China in the future. Many of their marketing options depend on putting a good face on their country for this event.

Regarding your statement, "With what troops are we going to fight this war once the Chinese send in reinforcements?"

Well, the 30,000 US ground troops now on the Korean DMZ & what the ROK could muster in the way of ground troops, would not stop a determined Chinese/NK ground force face-to-face on the ground under any circumstances. However, modern wars are not fought with ground troops only.

I do not think that the Chinese as pragmatic as they are thought to be would risk a large ground war with anyone right about now under any circumstances.

I also think that due to changed circumstances, NK is no longer the buffer the Chinese once needed and they might be more of a pain in the butt to the Chinese then the returns they provide.

There will be no ground war. If the US feels threatened, a limited preemptive strike on their weapons manufacturing facilities would be advisable.

[John Lenin]

I'm glad W is not in a hurry to start a nuclear war with North Korea over a failed launch. North Korea can't even afford to feed it own people let alone wage WWIII. I agree with W that the best way to handle this is with Japan, China, and South Korea at our side. I think Chia head is 95% bluster, 5% threat.

[garbageseeker]

I agree