This is going to be a "well duh!" statement. But the fact of the matter is it comes down to voter turnout between St.Louis/Kansas City and "everywhere else" in the state.
Frankly after seeing Ashcroft lose (which in light of 9/11 became a Godsend)nothing in this state would suprise me.
Southwest Missouri will do our part though...of that I'm sure.
Oddball conservative in Columbia will do his part too