Posted on 07/30/2006 6:43:53 AM PDT by Lando Lincoln
George Friedman, the well-informed if often too-clever-by-half mind behind Stratfor, the American intelligence consultants, was told by several of his Israeli contacts to "expect some surprises". So was I by mine. And Mr Friedman has spent this last week admitting that he is, indeed, surprised. For he can make no sense of Israel's battle plan against Hezbollah. Neither can I.
It made perfect sense this time last week. It appeared the Israelis were closing all exit routes to Hezbollah, in preparation for a large invasion to wipe them out. The number of troops the Israelis had called up suggested a very large operation. They are still calling up reserves, but most of the regulars are waiting for orders. The Israeli incursion has been extremely modest (if bloody); the air war goes on and on.
A good sign, for an observer partial to Israel, is that while Syria and Iran have been calling for a ceasefire, Israel has not. The Israelis must think their air strikes are achieving something. No journalists can see inside the southern Lebanese inferno (the Israeli army does not accommodate embeds), and my own sources are second-hand. The only thing I can say with confidence, is that most of the action remains ground-to-air, from one side, and air-to-ground from the other.
One moment Prime Minister Olmert says Israel is prepared for a battle to the death, the next he starts talking about creating a border security zone only two kilometres wide -- which would be as if the Germans attacked the Maginot line, but not France.
There is speculation, still, that the Israelis are pulling a huge ruse -- exaggerating their difficulties to build Hezbollah's false confidence, before delivering the crushing blow. I can't believe this. The Israeli political class consists almost entirely of big-mouths, and you can't keep a secret among them.
Moreover, I hear alarming reports to suggest internal confusion; and worse, that Ehud Olmert is out of his depth -- thinking politically when his problem is military.
I needn't quote the phrase, "weak and stupid", from any private correspondent, for it is said often enough of their entire political class by some Israeli media. I am myself amazed, and troubled, by how many Israeli officials continue to speak as if the goal were a trade-off with Israel's mortal enemies. But the thing about mortal enemies is, there's nothing to trade but your head. Here is my horrible thought: If "liberalism" can survive under such intense conditions, as those to which Israel has been exposed for nearly sixty years, it can survive until the West is extinct.
Morale is the issue here. Always crucial in warfare, it becomes the whole object in struggling against guerrillas and terrorists.
The word "morale" shares the root of "moral", and "mores", and pertains to character and conduct. The cadres of Hezbollah genuinely believe, in their twisted 7th-century way, that they are morally superior to the Israelis, and that this is proved when the Israelis mostly bomb them, and shy from engaging them man-to-man. So their morale is actually improved by the bombing, whatever their losses. They can recruit more, they can import new weapons in the course of time. The Israelis must make them know they are defeated, and this can only be done on the ground.
Hezbollah's way of war (as that of all Islamist factions) is founded on fear, not body counts. If they are assured the Israelis fear them, they will continue to attack. They sue for peace when they believe their enemy has lost his fear -- as Hamas were doing in Gaza, where the Israelis sent in divisions. (But now Mr Olmert has pulled those forces back, so that Hamas begins to think it has won again.)
The problem, for Israel as for the West, is not just Hezbollah, or Hamas, but all future Islamist terror brigades. Every pulled punch against Hezbollah and Hamas is an inspiration to Iran, and to aspiring Muslim "martyrs" everywhere, to raise new brigades, and find new methods of instilling fear in us, until we crack and run.
That is why, for the Israelis, anything that resembles an act of appeasement or retreat -- such as withdrawing Jewish settlements -- must be forsworn. There is nothing they can do to make the Arabs like them; the strategic question is instead, "What will crush their morale?" Ditto in the larger "war against terror".
Egypt and Jordan did not come to terms with the state of Israel, in 1979, because they suddenly developed a soft spot for Zionism. They did so when they realized they couldn't budge Israel, let alone drive her into the sea. Peace came when they gave up trying.
If the big powers force a ceasefire, it's the end of the Lebanese Government, and it assures the ascendancy of Nasrullah as the defacto leader of Lebanon. You can't have a ceasefire with the 21st century equivalent of nazis on your northern border. Moreover, it's an act of geopolitical lunacy. Any settlement that doesn't destroy the hezzie military wing, and allows for the continuation of an armed Hezbollah militia parading throughout Lebanon, is a major defeat for the fledgling democracy in Beirut, the Israelis, and the USA and it's allies. Please, Secretary Rice, don't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Absolutely right.
I guess it just you, and I, and Mr. Lincoln.
Excellent read.
Thank you sir.
A precipitous invasion would not be a good thing IMO. This was exactly what the Hezzies and their sponsors wanted. Why play into their hands? For now, better to rely on air strikes, constant shelling, snipers, elimination of supply/exit routes, etc. Weaken the Hezzies first, then finish the job with massive force. Systematically destroy them.
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
There, I fixed the headline.
That was exactly my point (you actually said it better!).
Also, who knows what other lethal surprises the Hezzies may have? They've had a lot of time to prepare and, if they have managed to build an inventory of 10,000 missiles, its conceivable that they may posess some other nasty munitions. No sense in "discovering" that the hard way.
The best scenario would be to prep the battle space, nail Naserallah, then terminate the resistance with massive force. This would be a win-win for Israel and for the WoT.
Outside of airstrikes I would characterize Israels response so far as tepid. If they don't use the reserves they've called up for a full blown attack that will once and for all decimate not just the military wing of Hezbollah but ALL of Hezbollah, then this will never stop.
Long term appeasement will eventually allow these facist retards to operate in the US and Europe with near impunity. Then we can forget about our governement protecting us because we will be forced to solve this problem ourselves.
I believe this would significantly improve our strategic position in the War on Terror.
We should destroy the Iranian oil industry. By Bombing all oil transportation facilities, pipelines, storage tanks, tanker trucks, refinery’s etc… we can cripple the funding of numerous terrorist organizations, Hezbollah, Hama’s, Sadr’s militia, Syria, as well as make it more difficult for Iran to buy missiles and such from North Korea, China, and Russia.
It would remove Iran’s threat that if we attack they will shut off the oil. Making the threat ridiculous and demonstrating that they are a single product state and without oil, and no other product that the world wants, they are nothing. Additionally, by declaring that we will destroy any reconstituting oil industry as long as the Mullacracy remains in charge, we can focus the Iranian’s blame for the situation, on the Theocracy and their support of Terrorism.
This will also bring home to all the other oil producing countries like Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, etc… that they are very vulnerable to the same tactic.
In addition, this will gain us time for the Iraqi’s to stand on their own, and free up troops we would need if we have to go into Iran, North Korea or somewhere else.
Sure the price of gas will rise, but this will also demonstrate to the world that the USA is not in Iraq for the Oil, and the onus can be shifted on to the Democrats for not allowing more domestic production.
“It’s not the control of the spice but the power to destroy the spice that is the real power.”
It has recently been said that the nuclear production facilities in Iran are so deep underground that we can’t reach them with conventional weapons. Perhaps so, but maybe we can starve those facilities of funds. Nuclear weapons are terribly expensive to build, and if Iran now needs all its money to repair vital life supporting infrastructure, it may have to slow or stop its attempt to build an atomic bomb.
Finally, Iran is a state sponsor of Terrorists, it must be punished, and it must be seen to be punished. Iran’s continued sponsorship of terror is a slap in America’s and President Bush’s face, and it must be answered.
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