Posted on 08/14/2006 9:35:37 AM PDT by epluribus_2
IT was supposed to be the day the maligned Lebanese army took control of the country's borders and policed the UN ceasefire. Instead, the military commanders were left humiliated and troops stranded as Hezbollah told them not to disarm its fighters.
The first infantry units were preparing to head south when Hezbollah showed who controls the area by announcing it would not surrender its weapons.
General Michel Sleiman, commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army, and his lieutenants had been invited to join cabinet meetings to finalise plans to deploy the 15,000-strong force south of the Litani River.
But they were lectured by Hezbollah's two ministers in the coalition Government on what the army could and could not do.
In Beirut, Western diplomats said the standoff raised concerns about the army's ability to deal with Hezbollah. The Lebanese Government is left struggling to maintain a united front after unanimously backing the UN resolution on Saturday.
"The Government can't force Hezbollah to abide by the ceasefire," Economics Minister Sami Haddad said.
"It's unnatural to have an armed political party in cabinet that does not abide by what the Government of Lebanon wants."
Nabih Berri, the Speaker of the Lebanese parliament and the Shia politician best placed to negotiate with Hezbollah, asked for 48 hours to broker a deal.
The standoff came after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said his fighters would respect the ceasefire, describing the deployment of Lebanese and foreign troops to the south as "an honourable move".
But without Lebanese troops or the planned international force in the intended demilitarised zone, there is little prospect of the ceasefire holding.
There were optimistic murmurs about trying to integrate Hezbollah fighters into the army. But Hezbollah seems to have decided that the demand for its fighters to disarm and leave the 20km arms-free zone would show it as losers in the conflict.
The army has lost 20 men in the Israeli assault, despite not firing a shot. Two more soldiers were wounded on Sunday near the Syrian border when an Israeli airstrike hit their vehicle.
Defence Minister Elias Murr said in the early days of the war: "We will defend our land until the last soldier, and we will pay any price for our land."
But troops retreated to their barracks or lounged on armoured vehicles in a token effort to police checkpoints around the capital or protect key buildings.
Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese general, said: "Sending 15,000 troops south is a political solution, not a military one. It's more a PR stunt. The army needs the international force to help it.
"The key objective is to keep the army united and not have it split on factional lines, as it did in the civil war."
The army's equipment is poor, and no match for the Israelis. Lebanon has no air force or navy.
One soldier said Hezbollah was better armed and organised, and that he was reluctant to confront "the resistance fighters".
Another soldier said his brother and a cousin were fighting for Hezbollah. "I can't turn a gun on the resistance, because they are family," he said.
One can hope this is the response anticipated by W/Rice/Olhmert after Lebanon was given and blew this chance.
There is no cease fire. There was never intended to be a cease fire. The US and Israel played the diplomacy card perfectly.
Hezbollah is now isolated internationally and fair game once again. They had a few days of rest and resupply but that's now over. Go IDF!
Resupply can also be interpreted as violating the ceasefire, as far as the heZI's are concerned.
The ceasefire is a joke and every body knows it. I will give it 48 hours before all hell breaks lose.
These guys are too stupid by half. They're supposed to take advantage of the hudna to regroup, then attack. This will give Israel the cover it needs to finish the job.
>>There is no cease fire. There was never intended to be a cease fire. The US and Israel played the diplomacy card perfectly.
Hezbollah is now isolated internationally and fair game once again. They had a few days of rest and resupply but that's now over. Go IDF!<<
This is exactly how I see this. It is the way Israel has played this since they gave up Gaza and gave hamas enough rope to hang themselves.
The next two weeks will be "interesting", as in the Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times."
I can't either. Its time to bring Netanyahu back into power. He would have kicked the crap out of them. What's worse, is that the soldiers were not recovered. And not Israel is talking prisoner swap, which is what they wanted in the first place. Prisoner swaps just lead to more kidnappings.
Should be the shortest ceasefire in the history of warfare.
Why should the Hizbus surrender? What can they surrender? So long as they have their tunnels and stash of Hershey bars they can sit tight. They have nothing to lose, not even their room reservations in hell.
The IDF, Bush, Bolton and Rice knows this, and are maneuvering for the resumption of combat. The French and the UN have been finessed into a corner, checked, with two moves to checkmate. "We played by your rules, and look what happened!"
Within the next two weeks, some raghead bozo is going to launch a rocket, and the IDF will have absolutely no reason to hold back. The UN, proven toothless, may well collapse, although it won't be right away. As I recall, even the League of Nations limped on 'til after the end of WW2, finally voting itself out of existance in 1946.
>>The IDF will roll out of their forward positions with a renewed strenght and secure supply lines.<<
Heh, heh. And I believe the Hezzies supply lines are a little less, shall we say, "robust" than they were a couple of months ago.
Perhaps they're taking their lines from Charlton Heston - "from my cold dead hands!"
never thought that this might be a plan to show how useless the UN is. I have thought that way for a long time. but if it is, hopefully Israel will drop the hammer on the hezzies
Um, if the hezbos lost, why are Malkin, Podhoretz at NRO, Dan Riehl, Goldstein, Atlas Shrugged, etc saying the US and Israel lost and failed?
The most likely scenario has Israel saying that its troops along the Litani will return directly to Israel. Along the way, they will encircle and disarm Hizbollah.
The Lebanese and UN troops will occupy the territory behind them as they advance back to the border.
Hizbollah will have no place to run to. They will be squeezed to death.
Israel will gladly withdraw, in their wake will be token Leb soldiers with unloaded sidearms while hezzies do the AK-47 happy dance and parade shiny syrian and persian missles. The french may not even show up.
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