>>If he goes this route - trying to repudiate his extreme pro-abortion past, it'll be a dicey proposition. He'll certainly lose the support of those folks (about 10% of the entire electorate) who will only vote for someone who is adamantly pro-abortion, but he may not be sufficiently convincing to pick up much from that part of the electorate (something around 20%) that won't vote for anyone who is not in favor of overturning Roe.
I agree it is a very difficult issue for him to get past. I also agree with your estimate that the numbers who regard this as an acid test that trumps all other issues are limited, but still very significant.
Do recall, you can realistically win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina with around 30% of the vote in a ten person field.
By then you have a two person field. And you might find that neither of them is totally solid on social issues.
Dear qlangley,
"By then you have a two person field. And you might find that neither of them is totally solid on social issues."
That's true. My own favorite of the moment is Sen. Allen. However, he's a pretty flawed candidate on social issues, especially abortion.
The trouble for Mr. Giuliani, however, is that once it narrows down to a two-person field, nearly any other Republican running against him will look like a true-blue down-the-line social conservative in comparison to Mr. Giuliani. As well, I'm unaware of any cut-and-runners among any leading potential Republican candidates. Thus, most candidate will be able to be credible on the war, while Mr. Giuliani will look like an alien from outer space on social issues.
In fact, if Mr. Giuliani actually does manage to survive the process to the point of being one of the last two candidates, it's possible that his effect will be merely to pull his remaining opponent toward a more hawkish position on the war.
It isn't impossible by any stretch for Mr. Giuliani to get the nomination, but it is unlikely.
However, in that his nomination will fracture (and potentially destroy) the party's coalition, it will be a darn sight harder to win the general election in the unlikely event that he wins the nomination.
sitetest