On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> 
.
Posted on 08/29/2006 4:10:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Ernesto strengthened slightly overnight in the warm waters north of Cuba after its circulation was seriously hampered by extended interaction with land yesterday. Ernesto is moving northwest at 14 mph toward South Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect across the Florida Peninsula and Keys from New Smyrna Beach to Bonita Beach. Landfall is currently anticipated by 2 AM Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over portions of eastern and southern Florida and the Keys through Wednesday...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible over southeastern Florida.
Long lines for gasoline and empty store shelves were common Monday in South Florida in anticipation of Ernesto's arrival. Some residents in towns surrounding Lake Okeechobee were asked to evacuate and the federal government sent dozens of officials and truckloads of supplies to Florida in advance of the storm.
Federal Emergency Management Agency Director R. David Paulison said he was rushing tens of thousands more pre-made meals and bottles of water to Miami and Jacksonville in advance of Ernesto's arrival. That was in addition to hundreds of truckloads of supplies, ice, tarps and plastic sheeting already in the state.
Paulison added that Florida officials haven't yet asked for federal help.
Miami-Dade ordered a mandatory evacuation of residents living in trailer parks and unsafe structures beginning at 7 a.m. today. Unsafe structures include those with extensive damage as yet unrepaired from the 2005 hurricane season.
Governor Bush issued an executive order authorizing the suspension of early voting in Broward, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Indian River, Lee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, St. Lucie and Palm Beach counties. Bush announced Florida has substantial gasoline reserves for storm preparation.
In Cuba, there were no reports of deaths or serious damage as 600,000 people who were evacuated returned home after Ernesto's threat subsided.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .
This one's starting to look like a non-issue. MSM is deeply saddened.
Out of the loop today and tomorrow ... safety and good luck to all, and go back home, Ernesto.
Good morning! Thanks for the new thread!
Thanks, as always, for doing the hurricane threads, NN!!
Between Haiti and Cuba, Ernesto has certainly taken a beating. It's got some 87-89º water ahead, however. Floridians need to remain vigilant for intensification.
Morning, ladies! I expect this morning is the best weather we'll be seeing for the next couple of days.
What ever it is, that big blob of storms is headed my way. Hopefully I will get back home from work before the streets flood.
Thanks again for posting that great link to the forecast track model progression.
I think you're right:) It's lovely here this morning..I'm going outside to putter in my garden for a bit!
BAMM shows a west coast hit while the other models have it going up the middle with an exit between Cocoa Beach and Daytona. What will it be, we wonder.
...at least, not this time.
And, don't buy the water. Fill 5 Gal plastic containers with water from the garden hose. It's almost free.
Please use common sense when posting graphics--keeping in mind there are FReepers who use dial-up access to the internetFrom a FReeper trapped in 56K dialup HELL, thank you, thank you, thank you. Oh that all FReepers were as considerate as you.
hehehe--we know you aren't a county employee...
You are welcome.
Still a lot of dry air being pushed into it. That upper low sure has been beating Ernesto up - first with shear and then with dry air. The current burst of convection is not very impressive, especially since the center of convection is SW of it - which means there is a fair chance the convection will not be able to wrap around the center prior to landfall.
Very interesting. Last year BAMM, for all its simplicity, did the best job with the 3-5 day forecast track. But they are going with GFDL.
The BAMM models aren't my favorites for this storm. Nothing to do with accuracy. They are running across my roof.
Kicking self for forgetting to put radar links into thread.
BAMM doesn't do so well short-term.
He's really gonna have to do a quick turn north if he's going to follow their track.
Let's use the version linked at the top of the thread...no need to shout in here.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 29, 2006
...Ernesto moving over water just to the north of Cuba...expected to
strengthen...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect
from New Smyrna Beach southward on the East Coast...including Lake
Okeechobee...from Bonita Beach southward on the West Coast...and
for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A
Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of South Florida and
the Florida Keys later this morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Bonita Beach
northward to Englewood on the Florida West Coast.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ragged Island and
great Exuma in the central Bahamas.
At 8 am EDT...1200 UTC...the government of Cuba has discontinued all
tropical storm warnings for Cuba.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 22.8 north...longitude 79.3 west or about 200
miles...320 km...southeast of Key West Florida and about 215 miles
...350 km...south-southeast of Miami Florida.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On the forecast track...the center of Ernesto will be near the
Florida Keys or Southeast Florida by this evening. However...
squally rainbands will be moving onshore these areas during the
afternoon.
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance plane
was 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10
inches are expected over eastern Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches are expected over
central Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
possible isolated amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the
Bahamas. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of eastern and southern Florida and the Keys through
Wednesday...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible over
southeastern Florida.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...22.8 N...79.3 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Would you be kind enough to zap my post please? I neglected to change from CAPS to normal...
Making another cup of coffee........
Twelve hours is more than enough time to keep Ernesto down.
Check out the radar links I posted just above in #21 and #25 (as long as you have broadband).
I am trying decide if I put on Storm Shutters. They are a pain in the A$$. I am just south of downtown Miami any suggestions/recommendations?
Medium TS unless it somehow gets into the Gulf or is delayed making landfall. If that upper low weren't pumping in dry air, it might be able to make strong TS. But heck, there is more impressive convection with the tropical wave east of the windwards, and that ain't even a depression yet.
They're saying maybe a 60mph tropical storm at landfall. And there isn't a large windfield with this.
I have to decide if and how I lower all of the awnings on my doublewide in Palm Beach county. Is it necessary?
Tough call. One thing you might consider--do you have much unrepaired damage in the area from previous storms, or neighbors with loose yard items? I'm thinking about things that might become projectiles during this storm.
I noticed some buoys didn't have data yesterday. That's a shame.
Anyway we have the shutters up, the van in the garage and most of the debris missiles out of the yard. I doubt if there will be much surge with this one.
So what's the consensus on where this thing will come in? Right now it doesn't look any worse than the typical summer thunderstorm. Do you all think it will strengthen? There was no change between the 5 and 8 am advisories.
Probably would not hurt, sometimes these things spawn tornadoes and you will be on the dirty side of it,better to be safe.
What is our resident experts' opinion on the turn that will determine landfall?
Still no sign this morning of a closed circulation. At least to my eyes. TS John in the Pac is starting to look impressive though. Classic spiral. Hopefully nobody but tuna fishermen will need to worry about that one.
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