Posted on 09/17/2006 6:30:20 PM PDT by thackney
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices nudged higher for a second day on Monday, struggling to end their steepest slump in more than a decade amid robust winter fuel stocks and easing geopolitical and weather risks to oil supplies.
NYMEX crude for October delivery was up 15 cents at $63.48 a barrel in Globex electronic trading by 2310 GMT, building on Friday's 11-cent gain and again attempting to halt a $9 collapse in prices over the past three weeks and a near 20 percent reversal since mid-July's record high $78.40 a barrel.
From peak to trough, oil prices have fallen by more than $16, the steepest retracement since the first Gulf war in 1990/1991, although deep $15 corrections in the autumns of 2004 and 2005 were followed by new peaks within about half a year.
Oil shed nearly $3 last week after data showed an expanding cushion of U.S. natural gas stockpiles and the highest distillate inventories in nearly seven years, indicating consumers in the world's biggest market were amply supplied ahead of winter.
A wave of profit-taking across the commodities complex has also driven prices successively lower and may push oil into the $50s before relenting as trend-following and technically minded speculative funds wield more influence than ever before.
The RJ/CRB Index of 19 commodities dropped to its lowest in 13-½ months.
"Increased dominance of 'funds' as the incremental buyer of oil futures has induced greater technical traits to the market," said Doug Leggate, analyst at Citigroup Investment Research.
"Our technical analysts believe a critical inflexion point has been breached, and downside risk may lie in the $50s."
Many analysts say a fall below $60 a barrel could galvanize OPEC, which a week ago opted to keep current output steady but left open the door to another meeting soon if prices kept falling, hinting at its first formal output curbs since 2004.
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices nudged higher for a second day on Monday, struggling to end their steepest slump in more than a decade amid robust winter fuel stocks and easing geopolitical and weather risks to oil supplies.
NYMEX crude for October delivery was up 15 cents at $63.48 a barrel in Globex electronic trading by 2310 GMT, building on Friday's 11-cent gain and again attempting to halt a $9 collapse in prices over the past three weeks and a near 20 percent reversal since mid-July's record high $78.40 a barrel.
From peak to trough, oil prices have fallen by more than $16, the steepest retracement since the first Gulf war in 1990/1991, although deep $15 corrections in the autumns of 2004 and 2005 were followed by new peaks within about half a year.
Oil shed nearly $3 last week after data showed an expanding cushion of U.S. natural gas stockpiles and the highest distillate inventories in nearly seven years, indicating consumers in the world's biggest market were amply supplied ahead of winter.
A wave of profit-taking across the commodities complex has also driven prices successively lower and may push oil into the $50s before relenting as trend-following and technically minded speculative funds wield more influence than ever before.
The RJ/CRB Index of 19 commodities dropped to its lowest in 13-½ months.
"Increased dominance of 'funds' as the incremental buyer of oil futures has induced greater technical traits to the market," said Doug Leggate, analyst at Citigroup Investment Research.
"Our technical analysts believe a critical inflexion point has been breached, and downside risk may lie in the $50s."
Many analysts say a fall below $60 a barrel could galvanize OPEC, which a week ago opted to keep current output steady but left open the door to another meeting soon if prices kept falling, hinting at its first formal output curbs since 2004.
Strange wording
bwahaha,,,
are you surprised in the least? Twisting words is the bizz of the press these days. If it's good for America, it's, well, you know the rest..
The bullish speculators can try to drive up the price all they want but when storage capacity is as close to full as it is now, where is the product going to be stored? A glut is a real possibility. By late November, we could see a complete collapse similar to the collapse of 1998. I hope it does not get that bad because that much of a collapse will sharply curtail production.
Not a peep [in the MSM] about the $13.00 drop in the last 2 weeks.....
as soon as the non-movibg tanker ships get filled up,
the price will start to drop
If you really believe that, you do not understand what happened in 1998-99. The bottom fell out of the Asia economies dragging the demand way down. Today we are only seeing a slowing growth but still a good pace of growth.
Tankers are not being held in port. There is more oil on tankers today compared to years ago because there is more oil being exported/imported than every before. Those tankers are carrying product. There has not been a slowdown of imports/exports.
I've seen stories that idle tankers
are being used to store crude/product,
cause there is no other place to put it
''Stories''? Don't waste my time. Check supertanker rates instead. They'll tell you exactly how hot the supertanker mkt is.
Sheesh.
dead cat bounce
since you seem know so much,
what is the crack spread for regular-gasoline these days?
I'd like to know.
The 3-2-1 crack, which many traders prefer to watch, is running 17.592 tonight, basis front-month.
Any other easy questions?
$60 by the end of this week.
LOL... Great response!
why would someone produce crude and keep it in a high priced tanker rather than just keep it in the ground? no logic in it.
;^)
LOL...
depends on the futures market.
at some point, it would pay to hold
on to the stuff on a ship.
I suppose it is possible for there to be a supply
imbalance, with too much crude headed this way
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