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Keyword: zogbyism

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  • We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.

    11/05/2018 9:57:14 AM PST · by SpeedyInTexas · 23 replies
    NY Times ^ | SEPT. 20, 2016 | NATE COHN
    You’ve heard of the “margin of error” in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points. But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys. Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come...
  • The Forecast:Democrats are still favored to win the House. But it's far from a sure thing.

    11/04/2018 5:05:16 PM PST · by mdittmar · 58 replies
    CNN ^ | November 4, 2018 | Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
    GOP could still keep House majority 04:28 (CNN)House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats. A Democratic win of 203 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error. Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 48 seats and 56 seats is within the margin of error. The final weekend of the long 2018 campaign is coming to a close. Sometimes the final weekend brings clarity. This weekend brings no such...
  • Democrats hold 7 point advantage ahead of midterms as Trump's base comes back home: NBC-WSJ poll

    11/04/2018 10:58:21 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 108 replies
    CNBC ^ | 11/03/2018 | John Harwood
    President Donald Trump's late campaign blitz targeting immigrants has rallied the Republican base of white working-class voters, helping to curb the Democratic advantage heading into Tuesday's midterm elections for Congress. The election-eve NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading by seven percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. That's down from a nine-percentage point lead last month. That slightly narrowing reflects rising interest in the election from the foundation of Trump's support: White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas. Most noteworthy for a mid-term election, the 2018 campaign...
  • Why Do The Polls Keep Getting It Wrong? Many Republicans Have Stopped Taking Surveys.

    11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT · by 11th_VA · 97 replies
    HuffPost ^ | Updated Apr 28, 2017 | Dr. Benjamin Knoll, Ph.D. , Contributor
    ... I run an exit polling survey project in Boyle County, Kentucky as part of a regular community-based learning component of our political science courses at Centre College. Our students have surveyed over 1,000 randomly-selected voters on their way out of the voting booths in every fall election since 2011. To examine these competing theories, I compared the results of the exit polls with the actual results in Boyle County in each of these recent elections. Central Kentucky is an especially appropriate place to test for such an effect given that the economic and demographic characteristics are favorable to a...
  • Larry Sabato: "Red Wave Ain't Going To Happen, It's Just A Question About How Big The Blue Wave Is"

    10/10/2018 6:03:04 AM PDT · by Sir Napsalot · 99 replies
    RCP Video ^ | 10-10-2018 | Ian Schwartz
    University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016. Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators. "Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as...
  • US Support for Same-Sex Marriage Soars; Most Catholics Approve

    06/29/2017 7:43:12 PM PDT · by marshmallow · 90 replies
    Public approval for same-sex marriage has skyrocketed in the US, with nearly two-thirds of respondents favoring legal recognition of homosexual unions in a new survey. The Pew Research study found that 62% of Americans favored same-sex marriage, with only 32% opposed. The result represents a stunning change from 2010, when only a minority (42%) supported same-sex marriage—and even from last year, when the figure stood at 55%. Self-identified Catholics were even more likely than the overall sample to favor same-sex unions. Roughly two-thirds of Catholics (67%) and mainline Protestants (68%) supported legal recognition of same-sex unions. Among religious groups, only...
  • Poll: Voters Don’t Trust Polls, See Anti-Trump Bias

    05/05/2017 9:04:17 AM PDT · by Helicondelta · 18 replies
    rasmussenreports.com ^ | May 05, 2017
    Most voters don’t trust political polls and tend to think pollsters are out to stop President Trump’s agenda. Just 26% of Likely U.S. Voters say they trust most political polls. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 55% do not trust most political polls. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Thirty-seven percent (37%) rate the current polling on political issues and events as worse than it has been in the past. Only 11% say polling is better now. Forty-six percent (46%) think it’s about the same. Just one-out-of-three voters (35%)...
  • Poll: Trump reaches majority disapproval in eight days

    01/30/2017 10:59:26 PM PST · by granada · 73 replies
    TheHill ^ | January 29, 2017 - 08:38 PM EST | JENNIFER CALFAS
    A majority of Americans disapprove of President Trump's work during his first week in the White House - breaking a record of how long it generally takes the majority of Americans to disapprove of a president. On Saturday, 51 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump, a Gallup poll found. The poll tracks daily approval ratings for Trump by surveying 1,500 Americans. It took just eight days to reach these ratings. It took at least several hundred days for the majority of Americans to disapprove of past presidents.
  • Donald Trump's approval rating at 40%, lowest of any incoming president in decades

    01/17/2017 4:58:29 AM PST · by Zakeet · 91 replies
    NY Daily News ^ | January 17, 2017
    When President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office Friday, he'll be the most unpopular man to do so in decades, two new polls showed. A majority of Americans - 54% - have an unfavorable opinion of the incoming president, a Tuesday Washington Post/ABC News poll showed. A second survey, conducted by CNN and ORC, reported that 52% of people do not approve of the way the president-elect has been handling the transition. In each poll, just 40% of respondents said they view Trump and his transition team favorably.
  • MSNBC Reporter Has No Idea She’s Live During Interview, Tells Clinton Aide What She’ll Be Asking

    03/06/2016 10:21:34 PM PST · by Nachum · 34 replies
    Free Beacon ^ | 3/6/16 | David Rutz
    MSNBC had an awkward moment while trying to conduct a post-debate interview Sunday night, as reporter Kristen Welker appeared not to know she was live and told a Hillary Clinton aide what she would be asking her during their segment. She then interrupted the guest, Jen Palmieri, when she heard a delayed prompt from the studio. Ari Melber threw to Welker to speak with Palmieri, a flack for Hillary Clinton, but Welker was in mid-conversation with Palmieri and was telling her she would ask a question about Flint, Michigan, the site of Sunday night’s debate, because of the water crisis...
  • John Ziegler is anti-Trump; who is he for?

    03/06/2016 10:07:16 PM PST · by EinNYC · 39 replies
    AM 970 radio | 3/7/16 | Me, Myself, & I
    I have been listening off and on to the "John & Leah" show tonight on AM 970, starring John Ziegler and Leah Brandon. This Ziegler strikes me as sort of a loose cannon. He spent most of the program tonight talking about why Trump was unelectable and how Trump actually LOST to Hillary in a couple of recent polls. Does anyone know anything about this guy? Is he blowing smoke?
  • Reuters rolling poll (Trump 38.4, Cruz 16.2, Rubio 10.8)

    02/02/2016 7:00:50 PM PST · by georgiarat · 75 replies
    Reuters ^ | 02/02/2016 | Reuters
    Reuters rolling poll (Trump 38.4, Cruz 16.2, Rubio 10.8)
  • Tribune Reporter: Ted Cruz declares war on 'liberal media' — so I declare war on Ted Cruz

    10/29/2015 9:18:53 PM PDT · by IncPen · 127 replies
    Chicago Tribune ^ | 10/29/15 | Rex Huppke
    I am sorry to have to do this, but as a representative of the mainstream media, I hereby declare war on GOP presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz. In the media's defense, Cruz started it. Literally. -- snip -- Strap on your boots, Teddy boy. We're comin' for ya now. And we've got the weapon you fear the most: the truth.
  • Zogby: Trump Will 'Fizzle Out Shortly'

    10/13/2015 5:27:09 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 66 replies
    NewsMax ^ | October 12, 2015 | Bill Hoffmann
    Veteran pollster John Zogby is continuing to stick to his longstanding prediction that Republican front-runner Donald Trump's run for president will not last. "I'm in a margin-of-error business, so plus or minus a couple of weeks … I do think he'll fizzle out, I really do," Zogby, senior analyst at Zogby Analytics, tells "Newsmax Prime" with J.D. Hayworth on Newsmax TV. "He's starting to, he's peaked a little bit and I think his numbers are coming down … he'll fizzle out shortly." Zogby said he is not surprised that Trump supporters say if the billionaire developer ends up dropping out,...
  • Legacy: Obama now an equal with Ronald Reagan, says pollster Zogby

    06/27/2015 9:09:09 AM PDT · by lowbridge · 29 replies
    washingtonexaminer.com ^ | june 27, 2015 | paul bedard
    In his weekly presidential report card, pollster John Zogby found that President Obama's legacy was greatly improved by two key Supreme Court decisions, endorsing same sex marriage and Obamacare, and passage of controversial trade agreements. "There have been some bad weeks and some less than stellar ones. This one was the kind of week that most presidents can only dream about." A GOP Congress passed the largest free trade pact with the largest market in the world. "The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to uphold 'state' subsidies under Obamacare." "A combination of major southern states and retailers vowed to stop manufacturing, selling,...
  • Scott Walker could become the world’s most powerful man. So who the hell is he?

    03/14/2015 4:31:50 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 76 replies
    News Australia ^ | March 14, 2015
    EVERY talking head in the United States has spent the last week prattling on about Hillary Clinton’s emails.Fair enough. The former Secretary of State violated government rules in an apparent effort to keep her correspondence safe from scrutiny. That’s no small matter. But in the meantime, another politician has come from nowhere to dethrone Jeb Bush as the frontrunner for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. His name’s Scott Walker.A few months ago, Walker was an obscure underdog with little more than an outside chance of becoming the nominee. Now he’s being seriously considered for the most important job on the...
  • “Only lost cause is Cruz”: Which GOP candidates shined (or flopped) in Iowa this weekend

    03/10/2015 1:02:44 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 57 replies
    Salon ^ | March 9, 2015 | Robert Leonard
    At Iowa's "Ag Summit" on Saturday, Jeb Bush had an auspicious debut, while Dems skipped town and others struck out. There’s a new player in the game at the Iowa caucuses this season, and the competition has just been elevated. That new player is Jeb Bush, and his debut at Saturday’s Iowa Agriculture Summit in Des Moines could be a game changer — for both Republicans and Democrats. Even though they were invited, Democrats were missing in action at the Summit. Republican hopefuls took full advantage of the opportunity to appeal to Iowa’s core industry, as entrepreneur and President of...
  • Politico Poll: 71% support comprehensive immigration reform

    05/20/2014 8:13:47 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 31 replies
    Hotair ^ | 05/20/2014 | AllahPundit
    Nothing makes a diehard eeyore like me happier than a depressing poll, but even I’ve got to call BS on this one. C’mon, Politico.That 71 percent includes 90 percent of Latinos, 78 percent of Democrats, and 64 percent of Republicans — and frankly, I’m surprised the totals for each aren’t higher. Except to the small minority of the population that follows immigration news closely, the phrase “comprehensive immigration reform” is almost totally meaningless. News junkies recognize it as a term of art to describe a compromise on border security and legalization; to everyone else, which is pretty much everyone,...
  • Indoctrinating Religious Warriors (GOP who put faith over science embarrassing Charles)

    01/04/2014 1:56:42 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 33 replies
    The New York Times ^ | January 3, 2014 | Charles Blow
    In 2009, the gap between the share of Republicans and Democrats who believed in evolution was just 10 percentage points, 54 percent and 64 percent, respectively. Last year, that gap widened to a whopping 24 points because as the percentage of Democrats who believed in evolution inched up to 67 percent, the percentage of Republicans believing so plummeted to 43 percent. Now, more Republicans believe that “humans and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time” than believe in evolution. This sad news comes via a survey released this week by the Pew Research...
  • Re branding Old Media

    01/04/2014 9:01:07 AM PST · by billhilly · 11 replies
    Self | 01/04/14 | Billhilly
    After being told by old and relentless image makers and propagandists that some things are are what they are not, and after a quick Google search, and seeing that I am not going where someone else has already gone, here are two new additions, one of which I recently used on FR. Since the left has called conservatives Wing Nuts, let's return the serve to them with Nutwing. The washed out alphabet television news organizations and major city Newspapers are being complimented by being called mainstream, and since they are all washed up, let's henceforth call them by the much...