On the other hand, maybe the top Moo's have figured that one out, and they intend to go after second-tier, red-state cities that give the Republicans some of their best ballot boxes. Cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Indianapolis..... but that's a short list, I admit. Cities tend to be full of needy "client" voters who vote straight-ticket Democrats, so I don't see how Osama could do himself much good, striking at a city center full of Democrats.
Alternatively, he could try to bag more Republicans by going after city-centers full of office workers who have rightward tendencies in their voting patterns; i.e. they vote in the suburbs but work downtown. But an attack like that would still involve attacking a city center and thus striking at a center of Democratic support.
It's like that old saw about "a neoconservative is a liberal who's been mugged". Anything like this would tend to galvanize all but the squishiest, topsidiest, ivory-tower-infestingest Democrats into "Killthemooslimcrats". I agree with you, this move is a loser for Bin Laden in the States, and so he's got to be playing to another audience, for other reasons.
I think he wants to become the guardian of the shrines and overrun Western Europe -- he keeps moaning about the Moors' loss of Spain -- so this would be a leadership bid within the Umma, one-upping the House of Saud and making them look like nothing ("I nuked America -- what have you done for Islam lately?"), and leading the Moslem world on a demographic and/or ideological and/or terroristic assault on the West.
I don't think he's really thought out the next move after that. He seems not to believe that we would really do anything after he nuked us -- that we'd all be cowering in our houses or something.
Action: Al Qaeda stages 9/11 attack
Result: United States liberates Afghanistan & Iraq
Action: Al Qaeda stages nuclear attack on United States
Result: United States liberates Iran & Syria
Al Qaeda knows the writing is on the wall for Islamic Nations with Bush in command.
Therefore, the logical alternative would be to stage something that would sweep the liberals into power, just like they did in Spain.
I purport that Usama & Company will try to discredit the Bush Administration which will result in a Democrat sweep in November. Look for something to happen in Iraq.
I don't think they really care. Republicans, Democrats, their all infidels in their eyes. If they hit, I think they just want to do the most damage they can. Washington DC, New York, LA, Chicago.
I've wondered if any attacks on the US would serve to trigger an all-out war on Muslim nations and that is what they are after. An excuse to gather support for all of them to ally themselves against the rest of us. Any big attack like this article is talking about would certainly produce a big response from us. At least, I hope it would.
As you know, I am completely uneducated and know nothing about technology. OTOH, I do have a small modicum of mother wit. Here's a couple thoughts the lj's just tossed around after reading the article:
1. Remember how Ghaddafi (sp??) gave the US "all" its WMD stuff that they had been working on in a tunneled out mountain with Iraqi $ and help? IIRC, they were working in tandem with Saddam, the British intel found out, and Ghaddafi subsequently decided to deal with the US. Maybe they didn't give "everything" to the US.
2. Remember Khan (can't remember his first name), the Pakistani nuke scientist who met with Bin Laden a couple of times in Afghanistan (I've read this many places on FR), and even made a flyer which he sent round to Muslim countries, essentially offering his services so they too could have nukes? I bet you remember that.
3. Pakistan has nukes.
So I think there's a possibility for something like this to happen. How big? When? For real? Will they be foiled if they actually have some ****?
Who knows. But to discount the possibility entirely is to me a little foolish. Many people in Europe right before the invasion of Poland thought there would be no major war, that Hitler would be satisfied with what he had.