Posted on 10/01/2006 8:04:13 PM PDT by RobFromGa
MD has 3 large population centers -Baltimore City and the DC suburbs of Prince George's and Montgomery Counties. All 3 are heavily Dem. Baltimore and Prince George's are also majority Black.
Ehrlich and Steele won as Gov./Lt. Gov. 4 years ago because they had poll watchers in Baltimore (where many voters are permanent residents in the graveyards), and because Steele has been a long term resident of Prince George's, where he is very popular.
Steele knows how to get votes.
ELEVEN DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. There are a few changes in the past three days.
[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]
The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)
MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (45%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) dropping like a rock, OH is looking bad
MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (40%) Bush to stump
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (35%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (35%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^
Thanks again.
I largely agree with your assessment, although I'd still place Santorum's odds at below 50%. My gut tells me that Rick will pull it out in the end, but I'm not ready to say that it's a complete toss-up (I hope to be able to call it that one week from today).
AntiGuv has his House predictions over here in posts #111 and #112, well worth reading to get a view of the House races. I am a bit more optimistic on the House than he is, but I still think we are going to lose about 10 seats. The Dems need to go +14 to take control of the House and make Speaker Pelosi happen. Ohio House races are also a key to maintaining control of the House.
Here is the link to AntiGuv's House predictions: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1725772/posts?page=111#111
I think you are a little too optimistic on PA and MT.
I hope I am wrong.
Don't count Conrad Burns out--the old Marine still has fight left in him.
Webb just got caught in a web--I never doubted that Allen would win...
I think Steele will win! he is a great candidate, and I hope he is a great Senator!
I think Burns will win! The people of Montana will not saddle the US with Dingy Harry in charge of the Senate!
I also always thought Allen would win! Webb is an empty suit in comparison.
The latest Ras poll shows Burns down 3. Plus Bush and Cheney are visiting MT next week. Let's hope, there's still magic left in the "Bush Bounce".
200,000 simulation is, expected value is 54.25 seats.
Probability of at least 51 seats is 99.0%, 52 seats is 95.4%, 53 seats is 85.5%, 54 seats is 67.4%, 55 seats is 43.9%, 56 seats is 22.55, 57 seats is 8.5%, 58 seats is 2.2%.
-PJ
WASHINGTON - President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney will make separate appearances next week in Montana to campaign for Sen. Conrad Burns, who is in a tight race with Democratic challenger Jon Tester.
The White House confirmed Friday that Bush will be in Billings Nov. 2 for a rally to support Burns and other Republican candidates in the state.
Karl Rove you manificent bastard!
Hi K-Lo,It's your "Soul Sister " from last week. Just to refresh your memory - we share a mutual respect and admiration for both Governor Romney and Senator Santorum.Last week I wrote that, as a former Pennsylvanian, Senator Santorum's numbers in PA did not seem to "add up." With two toddlers ages 4 and 2 my "free" time is a bit limited, but I've been doing some digging into the results from the PA 2000/2006 Primaries and the 2000/2004 General Elections to see if I could see any trends, etc. And, as I expected, I did discover some very interesting things in the data. While I don't know of any fictional "faux paux" that Bob Casey, Jr. has written, based on the numbers reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State website – (Commonwealth of PA – Elections Information ) what the polls, pundits and prognosticators are claiming about this race IS utter fiction!Here are a few examples...
Fiction: The Republican base in not energized.In the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primaries and only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primaries. The advantage of this system is that it allows each party to select its nominee without “crossover” votes. Also, the strength of the base’s enthusiasm can be quantified and compared with past Primary races. Pennsylvania is considered to be a “Blue State” because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Therefore, one would expect a greater percentage of the voters in the Primaries to be Democrats.
While there was an overall increase in voter turnout in 2006 (+25,438 voters), both Republicans and Democrats received exactly the same percentage of the total Primary vote in 2000 and 2006.2000 Primary
Republicans had 37% of the total Primary Vote
Democrats had 53% of the total Primary Vote
2006 Primary
Republicans had 37% of the total Primary Vote
Democrats had 53% of the total Primary Vote
Thus, neither side showed an increase or decrease in the percentage of voter (base) enthusiasm. In fact, Senator Santorum actually had +16,265 more votes in the 2006 Primary compared to his total in the 2000 Primary. Bob Casey and “All Democrats” only had +9,173 more votes in the 2006 Primary as compared to their 2000 Primary.
With receiving only 37% of the total Primary Vote in 2000, Senator Santorum went on to win the 2000 General Election 52% to 48%. He won by 228,208 votes.
Fiction: The Democrats have the large urban areas locked up.
The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has 67 counties. In the 2000 Primary Senator Santorum had more votes cast than “All Democrats” in 40 out of the 67 counties. In the 2006 Primary, Senator Santorum had more votes cast than “All Democrats” in 41 of the 67 counties. Arguably, the two largest population centers are Southeastern PA (Philadelphia and suburbs) and Southwestern PA (Pittsburgh and surrounding suburbs).
Not surprising, Senator Santorum showed the most significant loss of voters (fewer Republican voters turning out for the 2006 Primary) in the Philadelphia area -a loss of 41,001 votes. However, Senator Santorum actually made gains in 7 out of the 9 counties in Southwestern PA. In Allegheny County alone (Pittsburgh) he had 3,778 more Republican voters turn out for the 2006 Primary compared to the 2000 Primary. Southwest PA has been trending more Republican in the recent elections. Between Allegheny County and Philadelphia County, Senator Santorum had a net +964 votes.
In the two largest counties Philadelphia County (Philadelphia) and Allegheny (Pittsburgh) Casey and “All Democrats” had significantly fewer Democrat voters turn out for the 2006 Primary. Between Allegheny County and Philadelphia County, Casey and “All Democrats” had 49,480 fewer Democrat votes in the 2006 Primary as compared to the 2000 Primary.
Fiction: Pennsylvania is a solid "blue state"
While Pennsylvania is still considered a “blue state,” it is trending conservative/Republican. With a few exceptions, the rural regions are staunchly conservative. The results for the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections are as follows:
2000 Presidential Election
50.6% Gore/Lieberman
46.4% Bush/Cheney
2004 Presidential Election
51.0% Kerry/Edwards
48.5% Bush Cheney
In addition to the state trending more Republican in the past two Presidential election cycles, it’s instructive to remember that in the 2006 Primaries, the Republican (Conservative) base voters defeated several “RINO” Republican incumbents in the Pennsylvania State Legislature.
Bottom Line: DON’T listen to the polls, pundits and prognosticators! Past history suggests that Rick Santorum CAN win on November 7th. BUT it all depends on…
Which Candidate Will Have the Superior Get Out The Vote Effort on Election Day
My Prediction: You and your colleagues might want to consider booking hotel rooms in Harrisburg area for the week of the election. I predict that Pennsylvania will be the Florida of 2000 and the Ohio of 2004! (By booking in Harrisburg you'll also be within an easy drive of MD
I think Bush going to MT seels that one for the good guys
Thanks for the ping
Thanks for the ping!
Anyway, this is good news, as it could actually swing a Dummiecrat reader of their rag here and there to vote for Kyl. It certainly isn't good news for the Pedersen camp!
AZ Socialist Republic, 10-29-06 Editorial: Jon Kyl's advocacy serves Arizona well
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