Posted on 10/01/2006 8:04:13 PM PDT by RobFromGa
UPDATE 10/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT
The "Contests" as I see them tonight October 1 (GOP candidate listed first, incumbent in ALLCAPS).
Rankings are from most likely GOP WIN to least likely (% likelihood GOP win in parentheses after).
I DO NOT BASE THESE PREDICTIONS TOTALLY ON POLLS, BUT ON EVERYTHING I READ AND HEAR ABOUT THESE RACES, as well as the historical voting record in the state. I also factor in what I expect to happen between now and the election, and our GOTV (get out the vote) efforts. Many will think I am too optimistic, and this might be the case. We need to get out the vote as if we are going to lose every race.
The SENATE "CONTESTS"
VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (80%)
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (70%)
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (65%)
--------------------------------^^^^^Needed to Maintain 51 seat GOP control^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (60%)
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (55%)
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (50%)
MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (50%)
--------------------------------^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP current ratio ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (45%)
MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (40%)
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (40%)
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (40%)
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (20%) GOOD RIDDANCE!
--------------------------------^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
SAFE GOP SEATS
AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS
CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM
I still think when all is said and done VA, TN and MO are going to not be that close, and we win all three by comfortable margins (more than 5 points). Those three seats give us 51, and a majority.
I still see EVEN to -2 in the Senate as the most likely range, and +1 is posssible if we can pick off NJ and MD, and retain OH, PA, and MT.
Of the dark horse candidates-- Bouchard, McGavick and Kennedy-- I hope to see movement in their direction over the last 5 weeks. Due to the awful economy in Michigan, I give Bouchard the best chance of the three, and Kennedy (MN) and McGavick (WA) have closed the gap some.
I hope Chafee gets crushed, I can't believe we would spend a nickel to get him re-elected.
I had said I would move Florida into the Contests if Harris could get any momentum, but I don't think she has a chance. If I put her on the contests, it would be with a less than 5% chance. I hope to be proven wrong, and to have this pick be a permanent blot on my prediction record.
I was 2 for 2 in the Chafee/Laffey and Cardin/Mfume primary predictions. I hope I am wrong about Harris in the general.
Before I peak, just tell me -- is it good? :-)
Good work, Rob.
Am I on your list?
Lieberman will have to be seated as an Independent, right?
I agree with the MO, TN, VA comment. GOP retains the Senate. Im very worried about the house..
My sister lives in Michigan. She says people are turning against Stebenow in droves. That she hasn't found one sign for her in her community for her and there are hundreds for Bouchard.
Of course they still have to contend with the voter fraud in the Detroit area.
It depends on what you expect. I think we could lose a few seats. Worst case I see us still having control of the Senate and not having to count on Chafee for the control. Best case I see us +1, barring a big win in MN, MI, or WA which would put us with a bigger increase.
It depends how good this 72 hour effort is going to be, midterm election turnouts are usually pretty low by comparison.
I think he's showing Cantwell as the winner in that one, unfortunately...
Thanks for posting this, friend!
I agree it will be tough to beat Cantwell, and I'm not sure what you are saying re: Santorum. It appears that the polls have Rick down by high single digits, but I don't believe them, and think the empty suit Casey will continue to drop. He isn't ready for the big leagues.
The wildcard remains the Green candidate who was knocked off the ballot, it will be a help to Santorum to get him back on the ballot. There are still judicial challenges underway to make this happen. Santorum is our most likely loss I think.
According to Survey USA, Bill Nelson has a 42% approve / 39% disapprove. Of course this does not mean Katherine Harris is going to win. I suspect the drop in Nelson's approval ratings is due to him getting incredibly smug. Katherine should get 40% of the vote in the end. A major moral victory for her.
As Conrad Burns, regards of the MT race, we need to give Burns a good smack for giving us stressful nights over a Senate seat that shouldn't be in play to begin with.
I think both Santorum and Cantwell will keep their seats. Wish that someone stronger in Washington could knock out Maria. Bah!
BUMP
All your predictions make sense, but I think Allen in VA will barely survive if he does.
I don't think any MT Republican senator has ever won a fourth term, maybe prior to 1930 but doubtful. MT is a very Democrat state except for President since 1952.
I think Santorum and Burns are sure losers and possibly DeWine and Allen as well.
I'm counting on conservatives in Pennsylvania to vote in higher percentages than anti-war, cut-and-run, lefty socialists. That's all that is needed.
Burns will have a better chance to win if the race is nationalized somewhat by it looking like the Senate could tip if they elect the Dem Tester. If the Senate appears safe for the GOP on election morn, then it is in Tester's favor, IMHO.
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