I still think when all is said and done VA, TN and MO are going to not be that close, and we win all three by comfortable margins (more than 5 points). Those three seats give us 51, and a majority.
I still see EVEN to -2 in the Senate as the most likely range, and +1 is posssible if we can pick off NJ and MD, and retain OH, PA, and MT.
Of the dark horse candidates-- Bouchard, McGavick and Kennedy-- I hope to see movement in their direction over the last 5 weeks. Due to the awful economy in Michigan, I give Bouchard the best chance of the three, and Kennedy (MN) and McGavick (WA) have closed the gap some.
I hope Chafee gets crushed, I can't believe we would spend a nickel to get him re-elected.
I had said I would move Florida into the Contests if Harris could get any momentum, but I don't think she has a chance. If I put her on the contests, it would be with a less than 5% chance. I hope to be proven wrong, and to have this pick be a permanent blot on my prediction record.
I was 2 for 2 in the Chafee/Laffey and Cardin/Mfume primary predictions. I hope I am wrong about Harris in the general.
My sister lives in Michigan. She says people are turning against Stebenow in droves. That she hasn't found one sign for her in her community for her and there are hundreds for Bouchard.
Of course they still have to contend with the voter fraud in the Detroit area.
According to Survey USA, Bill Nelson has a 42% approve / 39% disapprove. Of course this does not mean Katherine Harris is going to win. I suspect the drop in Nelson's approval ratings is due to him getting incredibly smug. Katherine should get 40% of the vote in the end. A major moral victory for her.
As Conrad Burns, regards of the MT race, we need to give Burns a good smack for giving us stressful nights over a Senate seat that shouldn't be in play to begin with.
BUMP
All your predictions make sense, but I think Allen in VA will barely survive if he does.
According to SUSA, Chafee has an approval rating of 49. He's a toss-up or nearly so.
Good analysis. I'm not sure I'm quite so hopeful about Dewine and Burns keeping their seats, but I'll defer to the information you seem to have that indicates a better than 50-50 chance. I share your confidence that Steele could beat Cardin in Maryland though just by drawing enough of the black vote, or holding it down for the Democrats, to allow Steele to squeak by. Plus I believe Steele has about a 3 to 1 money advantage over Cardin.
If you have a Senate race ping list, will you ad me to it? Thanks!
A tidbit from a local city in MT : yesterday : one lone anti-war picketer(hard core dem)walking the street; today : 100 pro-lifers standing on all 4 corners of our main intersection. Burns is pro-life of course, tester is pro-death(like his terrorist friends). If that ratio holds, our man Conrad will win again. Also, lindeen, Denny Rehberg's dem opponent, is such a whacko that she'll pull tester's numbers down even further.
Therefore the "safest" categories are "Strong Democrat/Republican". These are races that the incumbent party has very little chance of losing (like under 5 percent).
Next come the "favored" categories. These candidates can range anywhere from having a solid 5 or 6 point average lead in the latest polling all the way up to a 15 to 20 point lead.
Finally there are the "tilt" categories. In the closest races this can be basically a "pick 'em" because the race is so close to even. However it can also apply in cases where one candidate has a narrow, within the MOE, lead in the polls.
STRONG GOP:
IN Lugar
ME Snowe
MS Lott
NV Ensign
TX Hutchinson
UT Hatch
WY Thomas
GOP FAVORED:
AZ Kyl (Kyl's lead in the polls is consistent despite the Democratic candidate spending gobs of his own money on ads. The only concern here is that, one: Kyl's lead is around 10-12 points and two: Janet Napolitano, the Democratic Governor, might have a bit of a coattail effect on downticket races given her high polling numbers.)
TILT GOP:
NJ Menendez (I predict this as our only pickup this year. Despite NJ's blue hue, voters there are disgusted with Corzine and the whole current corrupt regime. Kean has had a small but steady advantage in the polls for the last two months. Polling does tend to overestimate the GOP in NJ, but I think Menendez's current scandal will be enough to make him lose.)
MO Talent (The last three polls here have Talent down, but I'm not giving up. McCaskill lost her statewide race for Governor in 2004, so she's a polarizing figure. Talent's race in '02 was extremely close, but he pulled it out and Missouri is light red, hence the rating.)
VA Allen (The latest Mason-Dixon poll has a tie here with high undecideds. Survey USA has found Allen up 5 and then 6 points lately. I think Dems have been doing better here over the last few years, but the undecideds should go Allen in this redder state. If Webb starts to lead in the polls by even 2 or 3 points, though, I'll be very worried.)
TN Corker (This is the closest race in this category to being moved to "Tilt Dem". Corker has run a lackluster campaign. His numbers should have gone up after winning the primary; instead they've gone done. Tennessee voters aren't responding to the scandals surrounding Ford's family. Corker will be pretty lucky to win at this point.)
TILT DEM:
MD OPEN (Sarbanes) (It appears that Mfume's primary loss did indeed alienate some black voters, a huge group in Maryland. If Steele can win enough of them then Cardin is toast. One poll had Steele up one, and two others had Cardin up 7 and 11. In that case we have to conclude that the one that disagrees is probably off a bit so this stays Tilt Dem.)
MT Burns (I'm very close to making this "Dem Favored". Burns continues to languish in Montana. He's old and ineffective at refuting all the kinds of allegations against him. Plus the polls all agree that Tester is up almost completely outside the margin of error. Also Montanans have shown themselves willing to elect Dems (just look at Baucus all these years). Burns is running out of hope and hasn't closed the gap at all.)
OH DeWine (We've actually had some decent news in this race, mainly that the margin of the Dem's lead is shrinking. However DeWine has not led since June 20th in any poll and the last six polls from Ohio have found (from oldest to newest: DeWine -6, -1, -4, -10, -5, -2). If the election were today DeWine would lose.. and he's not going to get any help from the top of the ticket, where Blackwell will almost certainly lose by double digits.)
RI Chafee (I disagree with OP on this race.. Chafee has a MUCH better chance of winning than Burns or Santorum. He's down in the polls about the same amount as DeWine. Here, though, undecideds will probably break for the Dem.)
DEM FAVORED:
WA Cantwell (Cantwell's post-McGavick DUI-bounce disappeared, but she's still up almost double digits in a blue state. The only thing helping McGavick right now is that he can partially self-finance.)
MI Stabenow (This is almost a Strong Dem race now. The majority of polls right now, except Strategic Vision and Rasmussen, have Stabenow up double digits. The last two MI Senate polls have Stabenow up over 20 points. I don't think Bouchard can close that gap at this point.)
MN OPEN (Dayton) (Kennedy has never led here. The last four polls here have Klobuchar over 50 percent and Kennedy down between 8 and 24 points. Even disregarding the Star-Trib poll, Kennedy is still down double digits in 2 out of 3 polls)
PA Santorum (Santorum's late August bounce is gone now. He's down at least 10 now and despite his massive money advantage and the fact that he's a good campaigner, I don't see him coming back.)
STRONG DEM:
CA Feinstein
CT Lieberman
DE Carper
FL Nelson
HI Akaka
MA Kennedy
ND Conrad
NE Nelson
NM Bingaman
NY Clinton
VT Sanders
WI Kohl
WV Byrd
So the final verdict right now is that I see us losing a net of 3 seats. Minimum seats I see now are 47 minimum GOP, 40 minimum Dem. It would take something extraordinary for the GOP to have less than 48 or for the Dems to have less than 44. After that, we could get a maximum of 56. Dems can get a maximum of 52. (That assumes one party carries all the "Tilt" seats.)
The most likely Senate makeup I see is 52GOP/48DEM.
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
OK, we will, Rob! BTW, could you move that up a few lines? Thanks..............FRegards
There are currently 11 Democrat senators from deep red states (Bush >54% 00/04), and three, soon to be 2, Republicans from deep blue states.
Until the GOP starts contesting these seats, any GOP majority will be small, and always endangered.
A little on the ground stuff from Mont. Co., OH---which is THE swing county in OH:
more Blackwell signs than Strickland signs by a FOUR-TO-ONE ratio. This is odd because in 2004, Bush wasn't doing this well in the "yard sign" race.
We have walkers out five days a week, two shifts. Callers going every night.
The GOP effort, esp. at governor, was late in starting, but I get the sense that it's really rollin' now.
As of October 13, here's my opinions on the races:
The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
[Note: We have 48 seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]
VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (80%)
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%)
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (60%)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (55%)
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%)
MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (50%)
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (45%)
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (45%)
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (45%)
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (35%)
MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (30%)
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^
My bottom line is I still see even to -2 seats as the most likely outcome, and do not see us losing the majority barring unforseen events. Most unforseen events would actually favor the GOP at this point.
Exactly how does Lieberman fit in? If he is seated as an Independent, does his seat count to the Dem majority, or hopefully minority, in terms of committee assignments etc?
Bump for reference.
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (60%)
This is a chance for us?
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10242006/postopinion/opedcolumnists/06_elex__back_to_toss_up_opedcolumnists_dick_morris__eileen_mc_gann.htm
from www.electionprojection.com
One of two articles.
Remember, Pubbies (learn from the Dims) Vote early and vote often! :)
..Allen has been getting hammered, not because of 2006, but because of 2008--they are afraid of him...