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Polls: GOP losing grip on Senate
McClatchy News ^ | 10/2/6 | Steven Thomma

Posted on 10/02/2006 7:57:49 AM PDT by SmithL

Democrats must gain at least six seats to grab control - a feat that is suddenly not so farfetched.

WASHINGTON -- Democrats are within striking distance of taking control of the U.S. Senate on Election Day, a series of new polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC showed today.

Democratic Senate candidates are tied, have a slight edge or an outright lead in every one of 10 pivotal battleground states. No Democrat trails in those races; no Republican leads. Democrats must gain six seats to capture control of the 100-member Senate.

Democratic candidates have a strong chance to win all seven at-risk Republican Senate seats -- with their candidates tied in Virginia and Missouri, holding a slight edge in Ohio, Rhode Island and Tennessee, and leading in Montana and Pennsylvania.

Democrats are also in position to hold their three most vulnerable seats -- with a slight edge in New Jersey and leading in Maryland and Washington.

This in-depth, state-by-state look at the political landscape of 10 Senate battleground states five weeks before Election Day, Nov. 7, is based on a series of polls by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc.

Seven were conducted for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC, and three for other newspapers were made available to McClatchy. Each state poll was conducted by phoning 625 likely voters in the final week of September. The error margin is plus or minus four percentage points.

"These numbers look very encouraging for the Democrats to take control of the Senate," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.

Democrats are faring well and Republicans are on the defensive for several reasons: dissatisfaction with President Bush, disapproval of the war in Iraq, anti-incumbent sentiment and some anxiety about the economy.

(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006election; ussenate; vykor
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To: Kay

Ain't it the truth.


61 posted on 10/02/2006 9:39:04 AM PDT by conservative blonde (Conservative Blonde)
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To: Dave S

OK let the democrats control Congress and then Dobson will get all the "values" that he is looking for. (extreme sarcasm).


62 posted on 10/02/2006 9:49:57 AM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: ConservativeDude
OK conservative Dude, make your predictions and stop the blather.

Will the Republicans retain the House: Yes or No.

Will the Republicans retain the Senate: Yes or No.

No "buts" and "caveats" are allowed in the answer.

63 posted on 10/02/2006 9:52:37 AM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: concerned about politics
The election will depend on which party gets out the voters

Yes, turn-out has not been mentioned much if any in this election cycle. A typical mid-term election only draws 37 to 40% of the electorate nationally. That's about 20% less than a presidential election year.

64 posted on 10/02/2006 9:55:26 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Perdogg

This story was the top headline on the front page of our local paper, The Springfield (MO) News-Leader, today. It's amazing that a poll is such important news.


The Media is in full swing to deliver the election to the Democrats.


65 posted on 10/02/2006 9:59:07 AM PDT by rightinthemiddle (Without the Media, the Left and Islamofacists are Nothing.)
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To: moose2004

The MSM does give the impression of looking around wildly for the "thing" that will spell doom for the Repbulicans. Their reporting has almost become comical. Its Fitzmas all over again.


66 posted on 10/02/2006 10:00:40 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: hsalaw

"What's the difference between "likely" and "registered" voters? Is it that "likely" may not be "registered," and, if they're not "registered," why bother to ask them? They can't vote unless they're registered. what am I missing here?"

The point is -- often times these "polls" are just surveys of people, some or most of whom don't vote or are not even registered to vote.


67 posted on 10/02/2006 10:16:20 AM PDT by Disturbin (Get back to work -- millions of people on welfare are counting on you!)
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To: Perdogg
Allen and Talent win. I think Santorum pulls it out. Menedez may have to withdraw.

I agree with Allen and Talent. I think Santorum is toast. And even if Menendez wins I don't see him making a year before he gets indicted for something.

68 posted on 10/02/2006 10:16:28 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: FlipWilson

I don't pay nearly as much attention to party control of Congress as I do to Ideological control of Congress. For example, according the American Conservative Union's monitoring of how Senators actually vote on the primary issues of concern to conservatives, "Republican" Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island voted to the right 12% of the time in 2005. Senator Hillary Clinton also voted to the right 12% of the time in 2005. Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska voted conservative 40% of the time.
If the Senate or the House is still in Republican hands but more RINOs and bi-partisan oriented moderates are elected, what has been gained?


69 posted on 10/02/2006 10:17:03 AM PDT by jamese777
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To: jamese777
If the Senate or the House is still in Republican hands but more RINOs and bi-partisan oriented moderates are elected, what has been gained?

Majority leader gets to decide what to bring to the floor. Committee chairman write the legislation and determine whether it leaves the committee and goes to the floor. Even judicial appointments have to make it past the committee before they can be voted on. Control of the Senate is important if you want to do anything other than just fight Dem efforts.

70 posted on 10/02/2006 10:25:36 AM PDT by Dave S
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To: Hazcat

I don't think these polls even reflect the Foley news. It could get worse. I know control of the Senate is important, but I'm not going to lose much sleep if Lincoln Chaffee gets the boot. If the GOP is going to lose control anyway, we might as well clean house!


71 posted on 10/02/2006 10:37:33 AM PDT by soccermom
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To: Disturbin

"what am I missing here?" "Likely voters" are registered voters who say they will vote on election day. "Registered voters" are just those who are registered, but there is no indication of their intention to vote. Truth be told, polls of "likely voters" are considered more accurate.


72 posted on 10/02/2006 10:42:27 AM PDT by soccermom
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To: freespirited
"Naturally this Mason-Dixon stuff is more of a registered voter poll than a likely voter poll which is why the results are so far off from other polls."

Huh?

Each state poll was conducted by phoning 625 likely voters in the final week of September.
73 posted on 10/02/2006 10:48:08 AM PDT by soccermom
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To: soccermom

Good point -- I just like to know who they are polling. It's like when they say "9 out of 10 doctors prefered this med" and you don't know if it's a doctor, a dentist or a vet.


74 posted on 10/02/2006 11:00:51 AM PDT by Disturbin (Get back to work -- millions of people on welfare are counting on you!)
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To: Dave S

Motivated? I'm motivated more than I was. Happy with the choices? Not always. Going to sit out an election? Not unless I'm dead.


75 posted on 10/02/2006 11:04:37 AM PDT by madison10
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Comment #76 Removed by Moderator

To: Disturbin

Personally, I am a worst-case scenario type of person. Traditionally, the party opposed to the sitting President gains seats in the mid-term elections. Bush already bucked that trend in 2004. I would love for that to happen again, but odds aren't on our side. I'm inclined to believe the polls. That doesn't mean I won't go to the polls and support the GOP. It just means I am expecting the worst and, if I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We can't win all the time and (if I had to pick between now and '08)-- I'd rather get it over with now than lose the presidency in '08.


77 posted on 10/02/2006 11:05:42 AM PDT by soccermom
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To: concerned about politics

Always add at least 5 points to Republicans."

We'll see. If that's the case, election day will be great for us.


78 posted on 10/02/2006 12:06:04 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: jveritas

Yes on both.

Narrowly on Senate.

et tu?


79 posted on 10/02/2006 12:07:34 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: madison10

sit out an election? Not unless I'm dead."

If we could apply that rule to the D's, we'd be in good shape....



80 posted on 10/02/2006 12:08:30 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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