N. Korea: The Possible Nuclear Test Dates & Sites

Donga Ilbo ^ | 10/05/06 | Ha Tae-won & Youn Sang-ho

[TigerLikesRooster]

/begin my summary

The Possible Test Date

• case 1: within a week (U.S. intelligence estimate, according to the paper)
      candidate:
      Oct 8, the anniversary of Kim Jong-il ascending to General Secretary
      Oct 9, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo visits S. Korea
      Oct 10, the anniversary of N. Korea's ruling Worker's Party's founding
  
  
• case 2: before Nov. 7 but after the dates in case 1)
       N. Korea tries to influence U.S. mid-term election in both case 1) and 2)
       case 1) is obviously more dramatic.
  
  
• case 3: a later date
       it can be postponed if U.S. gives satisfactory responses

The Possible Test Site

In the lower half of the following diagram is the map of possible test sites based on information provided by a S. Korean opposition legislator Song Young-sun, a ranking member at Defense Committee of National Assembly. It is my understanding that these sites are picked because each of them has tunnel(s) whose purpose intelligence agencies were not able to tell. Most of them are said to be horizontal tunnels. A red dot second from the right marks the Kilju, where some activities such as bringing in cables were detected about a month ago. Near the top-center of the map, is Kang-gye, in Jagang Province. Several days ago, there was a report that new tunnels are under construction in nearby Mu-myong Mountains, Shi-jung County. Jagang Province is known to have many first-class underground storage facilities for munitions.

/end my summary

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[Vaquero]

so ronery.... So ronery

[Thermalseeker]

Fox News just reported that a US Air Force recon airplane equipped with radiation detectors was just launched from an airbase in northern Japan and was heading to patrol off the coast of NK.....the big boom could be sooner rather than later.....

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #4

Yep.

[spectre]

Nothing here, let's move on..

Meanwhile, back to the real news..Mark Foley is a pervert. Dennis Hastert should resign..

sarc/alert

[RayChuang88]

Actually, the USAF has modified C-135's that do air sampling for radiation for compliance with nuclear test-ban treaties. The Russians have the same with modified Il-18 transports.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Now you, TLR, are REALLY going to get attention here on FR from both Freepers and lurkers! You have been a lone voice calling in the woods warning us of this and educating us. We (most posters in response to your great work) are now rising above the usual juvenile level of just cute jokes about Kim Jong il and jokes about missile names, into an area of more detailed discussion, and sophisticated give and take and analysis regarding this very very dangerous situation in this region of the world that has deserved much more attention on our part (the US public's part).

Thanks again for your translations.

Over the last few years, FR has probably received something like $20,000 worth of your translation time, Korean language into English language, of important, pertinent stuff that the brain dead US MSM and the brain dead who feed on them, would not deal with.

[AmericanInTokyo]

I think they are going with Kilju. I would guess right before the US elections, but most likely on one of the national DPRK holidays you have referenced.

[Steel Wolf]

As much as I love Team America, and the immortal Nodong jokes, it's frankly embarassing, given what the situation is, that they're pretty much the only things guarenteed to show up on any thread on North Korea. It was funny a years ago; now it's just tired.

[AmericanInTokyo]

I think this is standard.

But yes, both Rivet Joint RC- 135V/W based out of Kadena and F-4 equipped with such fog analysis equipment (open source information here folks), are up and running and were shown on Japanese TV this morning.

[AmericanInTokyo]

It is it is.

I am so tired of it and I generally have a good sense of humor. It just shows the level of understanding of things North Korean and things Asian. That has always been a weak spot for us Americans. You would think after Pearl Harbor we as a nation would have become a little bit more sophisticated about Asia and can advance the usual jokes and puns.

[rahbert]

Are they admitting tourists to the test?

[Steel Wolf]

I think they are going with Kilju. I would guess right before the US elections, but most likely on one of the national DPRK holidays you have referenced.

They won't do it so close to an election that it doesn't have time to set in. They're looking to make the point that they are a power that must be negotiated with, not ignored or threatened.

That said, a nuclear test on the eve of an election might trigger more fight than flight, and strengthen President Bush's hands. The idea is to make Americans afraid without making them irrationally defensive.

Given a week or two of time to mull it over, and with the properly weak kneed MSM analysis, people may conclude that the hard line isn't working, and look to apply 'soft power' instead. (Soft power in the way of appeasement, cash, and fuel.)

It's a risky adventure, because it could easily hand you the opposite of what you're reaching for, but it might work.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #13

Bring 1 million dollars in cash(really in a bag.) They might.:)

[AmericanInTokyo]

Yes, but they are not that sophisticated in my mind, to do that. I think they don't know how the US public would react, and would think they can scare us, when it would have the opposite effect and embolden us and shame the Dimocrats and strengthen Bush. Remember, Bin Laden miscalculated right before the 2004 election. Kim Jong il is quite capable of making the same mistake (unless he reads Free Republic!)

[Steel Wolf]

I think they don't know how the US public would react, and would think they can scare us, when it would have the opposite effect and embolden us and shame the Dimocrats and strengthen Bush.

I agree that he lacks Western sophistication, but I wouldn't underestimate his sense of timing or understanding of fear. Brinksmanship was never bin Laden's strong suit, but Kim Jong Il is a master at the craft.

I also think that he understands, strategically, that it's in his interest to draw attention away from Iran. If both countries can acquire nuclear weapons, then it acts as a check on U.S. power, which benefits them both. One rogue state with nuclear weapons is an anomaly. Two is status quo. It would strengthen his bargaining position immensely. To that end, also keep in mind what aspect of timing would help for him to steal attention away from Iran, and shine it on himself.

[Obie Wan]

Are they planning some kind of ribbon cutting? Being as they are the ones mainliy responsible maybe they can invite Bill Clinton and Madeline Albright as guests of honor,or better yet let em cut the ribbon, at the moment they push the botton to start the test !!!

[AmericanInTokyo]

Your's makes the most sense this morning! :-)

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #18

And force Bill and Maddie to clap robotically(commie style) after the bomb is detonated.