North: Who Lost Nicaragua?

Townhall.com ^ | 10-6-06 | Lt. Col. Oliver North

[cgk]

Who lost Nicaragua?

By Oliver North
Friday, October 6, 2006WASHINGTON, D.C. -- During the 1980 presidential campaign, Republicans pointed out that Jimmy Carter had "lost Nicaragua" to communism. The 1979 Sandinista "Revolution Without Frontiers" led by Daniel Ortega was just one of many foreign policy disasters during the Carter administration -- and Ronald Reagan assured Americans that such things wouldn't happen on his "watch." Unfortunately, Reagan is gone, and today Nicaragua looks like a case of "back to the future."

On Nov. 5 -- just two days before our own mid-term congressional elections -- the people of Nicaragua will cast ballots for a new president. Friends of democracy in Latin America have been stunned by new polls showing that Ortega -- the ardent Marxist who once ruled Managua with a Soviet-backed iron fist -- is again poised to take control of government, a decade and a half after U.S.-backed freedom fighters succeeded in ousting him from power. If he wins, Ortega will have key regional allies -- men who, by themselves, present no immediate threat to our security but who, together, could create problems aplenty for the United States and its democratic Latin American allies.

Ortega's backers in the region have learned to use the "democratic process" -- elections -- to their advantage. Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, awash in petrodollars and with the encouragement of Cuba's aging Stalinist dictator, Fidel Castro, is committed to spreading an anti-American "Bolivarian Revolution" throughout the southern hemisphere. Chavez protege, Bolivian President Evo Morales, was barely in office two months before he re-wrote the country's constitution -- giving himself authoritarian powers. And in Ecuador, leftist Rafael Correa is now the front-runner in the race for the Oct. 15 presidential elections. If elected, Correa has vowed to ''re-found'' the nation, on the pattern of Bolivia and Venezuela.

Like Adolf Hitler, the anti-American leftists in Latin America are using elections -- not revolutions or military coups -- to take and then solidify power. It's a tactic that seems to have escaped the striped-pants set in our State Department. Until this week's visit to the region by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the State Department's response to the threatening leftward turn to our south -- and a Sandinista return to power -- has been both flat-footed and tone deaf.

The most recent polls show that if the election were held now, Ortega would garner 32 percent of the vote -- just three percent short of what he needs to claim a first-round victory. Jose Rizo, a former vice president and the PLC -- or Liberal Party candidate has 27 percent of the electorate and Foggy Bottom's anointed aspirant, Eduardo Montealegre, trails with 15 percent. The balance of the vote appears to be split between former Sandinistas Edmundo Jarquin (14 percent) and Eden Pastora with 2 percent.

Unfortunately, official U.S. policy in Nicaragua has been blind to the realities of Nicaraguan politics. The country has only two parties that matter -- the Sandinistas' FSLN and the PLC. Together, they command nearly 85 percent of the vote. Because of past scandals in the PLC -- with which Rizo has no connection -- U.S. diplomats in Managua have distanced themselves from his candidacy and promoted what they call "support for emerging forces." The result: a fractured democratic opposition to the Sandinistas.

Hopefully, the most recent polls -- and the earful Rumsfeld received this week about the insidious role being played by Chavez, Castro and their cronies -- will wake up Washington before it's too late. U.S. diplomats in Latin America in general -- and Nicaragua in particular -- act and speak as though everyone in the region thinks we're "ugly Americans." It's simply not true.

There are millions of our southern neighbors -- small "d" democrats, entrepreneurs and labor leaders -- who are counting on the United States to stand up for our own interests -- and the cause of liberty in their countries. Many of them -- like Presidents Alvaro Uribe in Colombia and Tony Saca in El Salvador have put their lives on the line to achieve and preserve democracy. They have watched with alarm as the will of the people was perverted by Chavez in Venezuela and distorted by Morales in Bolivia -- and they know the consequences for foreign investment, development and economic opportunity.

This sad outcome doesn't have to happen in Nicaragua -- but it will require an abrupt reality check at the State Department. The United States doesn't need to launch an "Uncle Sam says: Vote for Rizo" campaign -- but we must act now to level the playing field and help unite the anti-Sandinista opposition.

Our ambassador, Paul Trivelli, has to stop pressuring private sector leaders with potential reprisals for supporting the PLC. And when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returns from her Mid-East trip -- she should head to Managua and meet with all the presidential candidates -- including the now shunned Rizo. Doing these things now might well prevent people asking next year: "Who lost Nicaragua?"

Oliver North is the founder and honorary chairman of Freedom Alliance and author of The Assassins .

[Dog Gone]

Ortega won't win unless he squeaks by in the first round of voting with more the 35%.

He is despised by 65%, but they haven't rallied around a single opponent. They will if it gets that far.

Nicaragua is a beautiful country with friendly people. I was there a few months ago.

It deserves much better than Ortega.

[George W. Bush]

He is despised by 65%, but they haven't rallied around a single opponent. They will if it gets that far.

If they truly despised him, they would drop the factionalism and unite around one opponent instead of giving Ortega such a good chance at power. Therefore, they don't actually fear him in the way dictators in former communist countries are generally hated and feared. Ortega and the Sandinistas don't hold a plurality but they also didn't conduct the sorts of communist horrors of the old Soviet era or Vietnam/Cambodia or Cuba, or the ugly African regimes. And they left power when they were defeated fairly in much the way you would see when the Italian communists were defeated.

Given that N. Korea is an annoyance and Cuba useless to the Chinese communists, only Venezuela with its oil is worth cultivating for China. So the threat of international communism has receded and only Chinese communism remains to threaten us. The resurgence of the hard Left in Central and South America seems almost ignored in America's foreign policy. I know we're fighting police actions in two Mideast states but one would think that from time to time, we'd hear a little speech about hemispheric defense.

[FreeKeys]

Damn right it's Harkin.

[Dog Gone]

If your position were right, which it isn't, we'd be all unified around a single candidate that would defeat Hillary in 2008.

Imagine a vote in November for our next President under the current political environment.

That's what Nicaragua is facing. Their political structure is different than ours. Multiple parties. A parliamentary system.

We're rather unique in that regard around the planet.

[StJacques]

"He's BAAAAAAACK!"

Thank you for the ping cgk.

Yes; Ortega AND the Sandinistas are back, a development I view with great dismay. And Oliver North is correct that the problem lies with the division of their opposition among themselves. If you look at the opinion poll results you can combine the support for Ortega (hard left), Jarquin (center left), and Pastora (national left) vote to come up with 48%, which indicates that overall, Nicaragua is almost split 50 - 50. I have seen other opinion polls which put the left slightly lower in their overall popularity, my guess is that a slim majority of Nicaraguans oppose the left. But with all this in mind the last thing the opposition to the left can afford is to divide among themselves while the left unites against them. This is what happened in Venezuela, Argentina, and Chile and it appears that it may be about to come to pass in Nicaragua. And just to tell you how stupid the center-right opposition has been in this campaign, the biggest issue Rizo and Montealegre have raised with each other in television commercials is that one calls the other "ugly." I don't remember who says it about the other, but I saw the report on Univision; "don't vote for my opponent, he's ugly." I'm not kidding.

I note that North points out that the State Department seems to have bet on the wrong horse in backing Montealegre. I agree with that. The role of the State Department should be in uniting the opposition to Ortega, instead we've involved ourselves in an attempt to help one side among the center-left opposition to Ortego dominate the other. It's a huge mistake in my opinion.

And just for a note, North writes that "Bolivian President Evo Morales, was barely in office two months before he re-wrote the country's constitution -- giving himself authoritarian powers." Technically this is not correct. Morales has called for a Constituent Assembly to rewrite Bolivia's constitution -- and the goal is to give him something approaching authoritarian powers -- but that assembly has not concluded its work. There is a major controversy surrounding it as Morales's MAS Party is attempting to force through a simple majority rule for the passage of proposed parts of the constitution, as opposed to the originally planned 2/3 vote, which has brought the assembly to a standstill, and the rest of Bolivia is uniting against MAS right now. That country might end up in civil war if the matter is not resolved.

[Dog Gone]

Your insights into Latin America are invaluable.


Thanks.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Bump.

[danamco]

Damn right it's Harkin.

No, No.....It is "Dung-Harkin"!!!

[Valin]

The man is Tom Harkin.

[George W. Bush]

If your position were right, which it isn't, we'd be all unified around a single candidate that would defeat Hillary in 2008.

Their election is a month away. Ours is two years away. Your analogy is stretched too thin to be convincing. In two years, Republicans and conservatives will be united, provided we avoid a McStain or a Rudy-type liberal as nominee.

It will be interesting to watch their election. Maybe we'll fly warplanes over their capital just before the election again, just for old times' sake.

[cgk]

You're very welcome, StJacques. And I agree with Dog Gone, your insights into this are invaluable. Might I request an ADD to your "Latin America Left Watch" ping list? Thank you!

In this, our post-9/11 world, with the Democrats bent on the destruction of America, including but not limited to our complete capitulation to Islam, think long and hard:
Do YOU want Nancy Pelosi 2nd in line to the Presidency?

[familyop]

"North: Who Lost Nicaragua?"

Nicaragua did, of course, with a little help from some of her neighbors. ...and some European visitors, who brought extra conspiracy stories.

[Alia]

Your insight and data is very helpful, StJacques.

[StJacques]

" Might I request an ADD to your "Latin America Left Watch" ping list?"

You're on the list cgk. And thank you for the kind words.

[StJacques]

May I ping you -- and anyone else who may be interested -- to the following thread, page 2 starting with post #52, with information and pics on a massive and very successful rally in Caracas, Venezuela yesterday for Manuel Rosales, the opposition candidate running against Hugo Chavez for the presidency? Caracas is Chavez's strength within the Venezuelan political landscape and this event may have changed the dynamic of the campaign.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1712371/posts?page=52#52

If you read through the various posts you will see there is reason to be hopeful that a viable opposition is taking shape.

[proud_yank]

PING – Hugo is at it again!

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