Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 8 October 2006

Various big media television networks ^ | 8 October 2006 | Various Self-Serving Politicians and Big Media Screaming Faces

[Morgan in Denver]

It is just a thought. I'm interested in what others think too.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I hadn't really thought of it that way, but it could explain why the polls and the results in the last three elections have been so far apart.

[ThreePuttinDude]

How about this little tid-bit-----

Could coal replace oil?

At current oil prices, one answer to the evolving shortage of liquid fuels is coal liquefaction, HSBC bank suggests.

The CTL (coal-to-liquids) technology is well-established. It was originally invented in Germany in the 1920s and developed there and in the US in the 1930s. In the Third Reich it was used to make up to 600,000 barrels a day of petrol and avgas during the Second World War.

The technology was improved greatly in South Africa in the apartheid years to reduce dependence on imported oil. I have fond memories of researching and writing about the giant Sasol enterprise in 1964 when making my reputation as a young financial journalist. I still have a copy of my “Earth, Air, Fire and Water” study, which for the first time explained the complex processes to the public in layman’s terms.

Today there are three CTL plants in what is now democratic South Africa, converting coal into 150,000 barrels a day (equal to the output of a medium-sized oilfield). In addition to petrol, diesel and avgas, the process produces a wide range of by-products such as petrochemicals, waxes, feedstocks for plastics manufacture, and fuel gas.

While it’s forecast that the world will run short of conventional oil within a century, with most of the remaining large deposits in politically unstable regions, there is little recognition that coal is an abundant substitute. Enough for more than a thousand years.

The US has the world’s largest coal deposits, with 268 billion tons of recoverable reserves. HSBC says that at a standard conversion rate of two barrels of synthetic fuels from one ton of coal, those reserves are equivalent to the 20 times the nation’s current crude oil reserves.

At capital costs of $700 million for capacity of 10,000 barrels/day and a 30-year life, operating costs of $15/barrel and current coal costs, breakeven for a coal-to-liquids plant in the US would be in the range $39-44 a barrel, assuming no tax incentives.

However, the new Highway Act provides a subsidy of $21 a barrel for commercial-scale CTL projects. Taking that into account, with oil at $50 a barrel (that is, well below current prices around $70), the internal rate of return on such a project would be in the mouth-watering range 22-25 per cent.

It would also be environmentally friendly, as the technology converts dirty coal into “ultra-clean” synthetic diesel and jet fuel that can be used in current engines without adaptation. And “the fuels are easily transportable and marketable, as they are compatible with existing petro-fuel distribution infrastructure” (unlike ethanol-blended petrol, bio-diesel and more radical alternative fuels).

HSBC suggests that beneficiaries of CTL development in the US could include mining companies such as Peabody Energy and Arch Coal, and providers of proprietary technologies such as GEA Group (Lurgi), GE Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, ConocoPhillips, Rentech, Syntroleum – and South Africa’s Sasol. The latter, now listed in New York as well as Johannesburg, is becoming a global giant in synthetic fuel projects (see later article about gas-to-liquids).

China, which like the US has huge coal reserves but increasing dependence on imported oil, is adopting the CTL solution. Its first plant will start production next year.

State-owned Shenhua, the biggest coal mining company, in association with Sasol and Shell, wants to build additional plants to make liquid fuels equivalent to 10 million tons of crude oil a year by 2010, at a cost of about $10 billion, and 30 million tons by 2020.

HSBC says the typical final product mix from Fischer-Tropsch synthesis contains between 70 and 80 per cent diesel fuel and 10 to 20 per cent jet fuel, with “chemical and burning qualities superior to… their counterparts derived from petroleum through refining.”

The world isn’t going to run out of oil while there’s all that coal that can be turned into liquid fuels.

By Martin Spring in On Target, a private newsletter on global strategy

www.moneyweek.com/

[samantha]

#802, Thank You. it felt like a punch in the solar plexus,and it feels like We have lost a Good friend,but cannot mourn his loss because it is so convoluted a story and we have to get busy and see that that slimy weasel Mahoney is never elected to anything. Most of us still get a tear here and there thinking about it,but we have to move on,and we will. It is just so gut wrenching. Joe Negron is pretty savvy at the same time he is Small Town Nice. He won't take any crap off this DNC/DBM,but he will look really good. His Website is joenegron.com but it is down right now,

[Arizona Carolyn]

No appology. I don't like having no choice between McCain and a true conservative, though the RNC would support McCain regardless.... I just hope the entire nation isn't faced with the same non-choice we have here in Arizona.

[maica]

I think the calculations of all of the pundits and pollsters are based on assumptions about conservatives that just aren't true. I think they're in for a big surprise.


#####

This is the basic fallacy of the pundits = they have an image of who Republican voters are that is based on nonreality.

[Arizona Carolyn]

No she doesn't. I knew it would be a matter of time before she started in on guns as in the attack on Tom Selleck. She did... a month in and it's been at least one, if not two controversial statements each week. I don't/won't watch The View, but I wrote to them last week anyway to complain about Rosie.

[eeevil conservative]

maybe they are this time around....but hopefully we can have better choices next time!!

[samantha]

Yeah, I wish Nelson were in front of me now, he would get the boot even if it made me fall on my butt. LOL! He is so brain dead he would think I was a short Herman Munster.

[samantha]

#821, I always thought Stepphy was gay,and he Married that loosey goosie for show,and a Child.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

Very good and interesting point! I think that one reason that the polls are the way they are is to discourage conservative/independent voters from even going. But, your idea that there is a fund-raising component to the fraud (and yep ~ that is what I think most polls are!) makes alot of sense. Didn't I just read last week that the Reps have about a 4 to 1 advantage over the Dems on available cash to spend this election year??
Glad to be here, MOgirl

[samantha]

I get the Wally World fresh frozen Wild Salmon,and Doctor it up. Glad to see you are doing your part for the cause and still enjoying yourself.

[ThreePuttinDude]

Could it be the media keeps saying Democrats are going to win the
House or Senate just to get more donations from suckers on the left?

I think the reason they keep claiming they're going to take the election,
is when and if they don't, it automatically allows them to claim fraud/disenfranchisement
and all of the other hogwash claims they make.

This comes to mind

[RobFromGa]

They also have to add Dem points to the polls to account for all the dead and non-existent voters they hope to have "show up" on election day.

[samantha]

I heard that Jennings was ahead,but by three points and I thought that cannot be right. Every day these Ads run back to back on Channel 10 CBS affiliate when we are watching Jeopardy,and NCIS or something like that and it is either a Jennings ad or charlie Justice is a scum ad,and it sure is annoying as Hell. I will be on Beeridge Road Tomorrow,still in friendly territory.

[rodguy911]

It's probably/undoubtedly more complex than that but that could very well be an integral part of today's polling.

[rodguy911]

Nelson is the dumbest legislator in congress.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

Another excellent point. So far, we have:

1) Use "close" and/or "Lib winning" poll results to increase fundraising

2) Discourage conservatives and independents from voting

3) Pad poll results to explain dead or non-existant voters on election day

I think it would be helpful to keep these in mind (as well as any others FReepers can think of), to help understand the reasons of the polls we get thrown at us each and every election. Even more fun would be to figure out what reason(s) each polling org is using for their results. What is Zogby's reason, for example?

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[samantha]

#867, she is to be pitied, I believe she lost her Mother at a Young age to Breast Cancer,and is all messed up in the head. She thinks people really care what she thinks.How delusional can she be?

[maica]

I agree with you about the dems turning "swiftboating" into a pejorative. Another sign of their shallowness of intellect as well as character. Kerry was a Swift Boater. He trashes his own. I bet he does not attend any reunions now!!!