Posted on 10/10/2006 7:07:45 PM PDT by mdittmar
Sept. 28 - With less than six weeks until the November mid-term elections, Democratic Congressional candidates have taken the lead among voters, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.
IF THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS for U.S. Congress were held today, more registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47 percent) than the Republican candidate (40 percent) in their district. Thirteen percent say the would vote for another party’s candidate or are undecided. That’s a turnabout from the NEWSWEEK poll taken just after President George W. Bush’s Sept. 12 speech on Iraq to the United Nations, when 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, vs. 41 percent fot he Democrat.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
BERKELEY -- Exploiting a whirlwind campaign tour by President Bush over the past week, Republicans surprised confident Democrats, retaking control of the Senate on Tuesday and making historic mid-term gains by not losing ground in the House, where they hold a slim majority. Updated Nov. 6, 3:00 pm
So much for polls and the old media that spouts them.
Nothings over until the votes are in.
This article talks about a 7 point generic ballot lead in late September.
Right now, in early October, polls are showing as much as a 23 point generic lead for Democrats. I think this year is a little bit different...
I don't,same old media polls,same old democrat party,we shall see.
Great post chief. A factual link to past elections speaks volumes.
You are being tricked by polls. I had to show some liberals how easily they are duped by polls. This is what I wrote them...
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The headline is fantastic! The headline is forceful! The headline says it all? The following is the latest WashingtonPost/ABC News poll on EVERYTHING! If you are a liberal, what's NOT to like about this poll and this headline! It's perfect-o! And it's on page #1 More perfect-o!
"Poll Shows Strong Shift Of Support to Democrats"
By David S. Broder and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, October 10, 2006; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100900868.html
...Unfortunately! It's just a cae of duping the liberals.... AGAIN!
Here is the actual poll and if you dig through it you can piece together the methodology they use to come up with such a liberal pleasing (aka duping) headline.
The poll in raw data form:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100906.htm
Hmmmm... let's see:
- random national sample of 1,204 adults (does not specify likely voter or voter, no big deal really, though they should specify that information)
- And waaaaay down at the bottom: 38% Democrats and 27% Republicans.
- That breaks down to 457 Democrats and 325 Republicans.
- And that breaks down to 17% more Democrats were polled than were Republicans.
- There is only a 3%-4% difference between Democrats and Republicans respectively.
Conclusion: The poll OVERSAMPLED Democrats by 13%-14%!
Liberals! YOU'VE BEEN DUPED! ...AGAIN! And the sad part is, you don't care that you were taken for a ride by the media!
STATISTICS 101 is dismissed!
23 by Usa Today, not a good non bias barometer.
Avacado good work and link, maybe you will silence some of the DEMS on this blog
The latest 2 polls, Wapo and NYT, show a 13% & 14% lead for Dems respectively. A couple of weeks ago, pre-Foley, Gallup showed it even.
Also, in Oct 2002, 43% said economy was fairly good or very good, while now the number is 60%.
We need to remind posters at FR that 23 points in a USA today or CNN poll is really a DEM oversampled hack poll that is more near the single digit mark.
You're right. The dimwits and their media lackeys will again preach their unquestionable victory so that when they are beaten, the unenlightened 50% can cry voter fraud.
It's amazing to me how many people do NOT understand polling. It's RANDOM. Pollsters call the first 1000 or whatever voters (or adults, depending) they reach. It's not their fault that more people are calling themselves Democrats than they were two weeks ago. That's a natural and EXPECTED reaction to the Foley problem. Voters are more likely to identify as Democrats now than they were two weeks ago. It's not media bias. It's just the way things are. Sure, maybe they did get a bad sample this time. But the odds are 19:1 against it, statistically.
You might be right. Keep in mind though that the pollster was actually Gallup. USA Today just gets to publish the results first.
That's just too stupid to comment on.
Actually the latest two polls are Gallup and CNN, which show 23 and 21 point leads respectively. The ABC and CBS polls are a tad bit older (by one day).
Then don't comment on it.
Good analysis. A false sense of security will keep Dems in their crack houses and glory holes on election day.
That's a ridiculous poll,like the rest.
Hope the dems believe the old media and stay home on November 7.,I wont.
Just wait until those 'rat moonbats head to the polls on WEDNESDAY to get their votes counted.
Re: 13 - 14%, as avocado said, these polls are always oversampled heavy dim. The MSM isn't interested in spreading the truth. It's more about spreading the manure.
Their agenda is to make their desired result (plus dim) the reality bt suppressing R turnout.
As an aside bonus for them and the dims, they get to scream and holler for the next two to six years how the election was stolen from them - the polls told them so. Sooner or later, they may grow up and recognize that the only poll that matters is after the legal ballots are counted.
Pollsters should be using REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES, particularly when they plan to use their results to make predictions about ELECTORAL outcomes!
[BTW: Do you actually think Democrats and their media enablers would accept as valid ANY poll that gave Republicans an 11 point advantage? Of course not, yet they expect Republicans to accept biased samples as a matter of course!]
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