[rightinthemiddle]

The poll is 43% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 19% Independent.

_____

Of course it is. The Democrats are the majority party. They why the have the White House, Senate, House and all those governorships.

Just ask your favorite news anchor.

[Owen]

The pollsters do NOT intentionally fabricate a result. The methodology (non Rasmussen) is simply highly questionable and probably wrong.

They call voters and ask them to self identify as to party. They call randomly and whatever mix they get, that's what they get. The number of hangups pollsters get now are averaging 2 hangups per successful call. That is more self selection.

There is no proof Republicans hang up more readily. And it is impossible to prove a negative so you cannot prove that they don't hang up more readily.

The flaw in the process is that there is no proof that hangups are equally distributed. That is what makes the results doubtful. Only near the end, during the last few days, does the number of phone calls go up and the hangups fall off because people are finally thinking about it and willing to talk.

[LS]

This is what I keep trying to tell people and no one listens: in 2004, Jay Cost did THE analysis of voter registration in OH (and several other states). He was right on the money. In our drops, we aren't seeing anywhere NEAR the 43/37 breakdown---and this in neighborhoods where it should even be HIGHER for the Dems. If anything, we're seeing (based on FOUR consecutive elections) that the people who are voting are Rs, overwhelmingly.

That's also what Jay found. He found the Dem registration numbers were bogus because they KEPT all the "new registrations" but never did cull out all the people who have left the state, and given the blue-collar job losses, they are 100% DEM. In short, if you don't adjust for the changes in REAL voter registration (ie., who has really voted) you will think there are 1 million more Dems in OH than there are.