Posted on 10/24/2006 9:51:23 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
2006 ELECTIONS : BACK TO TOSS-UP
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.
With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.
Here's the evidence:
* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.
* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.
* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.
* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.
* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)
Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.
None of these data indicates that the Republicans are out of trouble yet, but Democrats must win one of these three races: Ford in Tennessee, Menendez in New Jersey or Webb in Virginia. If not, they'll fall at least one seat short of controlling the Senate even if they succeed in knocking off all five vulnerable GOP incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.
Why are Republican fortunes brightening?
The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act, a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of the Republican leaders.
Bush's success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.
Then, too, some in the Democratic Party must be finally realizing what a disastrous decision it was to put Howard Dean in as party chairman. The Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford to fund fully its key races.
Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans.
Eileen McGann co-authored this column.
Since his wife co-authored this article, maybe she had something to do with this turn-around...
just covering all the bases
SEE HERE :
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1721775/posts
TITLE : Dick Morris Says GOP Sunk in '06, Hillary Wins in '08
Hmmm. I dunno. While DM sometimes has some interesting and insightful comments, I have noticed that he waffles just enough to cover his bases...
I just hope Morris does not say the GOP will win in 2006, then I know we are doomed.
Ha - beat me to it! :-)
Dick Morris will do whatever gets Dick Morris more television time.
Why does any one give this man any credibility? Hannity has him on, which is not surprising, but Medved had him on to. He gives "hindsight prognostications" never any forward looking analysis.
Excess ingestion of toe-jamb must have that effect on your mind.
Anyone who has paid attention to Morris over the years knows his predictions change a lot on the road to election day. That's his gimmick. :-)
Every time I hear the media tell me that I am not going to vote, I get a little more eager to vote. I am disgusted by the Republican spending, but I will be damned if I will follow orders from the liberal media. Them saying it doesn't make it true.
Look at it this way: Dick Morris is an opinion columnist, and his only stock in trade is his alleged brilliance at knowing how elections will go.
The only way he can make a buck in a limited niche like that is to ride the waves as they come, and pretend that he knew all along what the next 12 waves will be like.
At best, Morris has only a marginally better idea of the next wave than you or I do. Where he makes his money is in convincing enough folks that he's not making up everything beyond that.
Good analysis. That raises the question, though - does he believe his own BS?
Let's say the Dems win one or both houses. How would this affect SCOTUS choices if Bush gets one more selection? Couldn't he still get a conservative judge thru the senate even with a Dem majority? If Pelosi and crew proceed with impeachment, how would that affect the 2008 GOP choice?
Could there be a backlash against the Dems or make it easier for Hillary?
>>>( The Man Just Can't Make Up His Mind )
No, he's just practicing gluteus protectus - now, no mater what the result, he can say, "See, I told you so..."
Morris is only interested in maintaining his viability of his career. Period. He just wants enough credibility to keep working.
Title should read,
Dick Morris: Professional Idiot.
"Couldn't he still get a conservative judge thru the senate even with a Dem majority? "
You're joking, of course, right?
Exactly. That way he can claim (as he always does) that he correctly predicted the election. I'll never understand why he gets so much attention.
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