Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"

Political Wire ^ | October 25, 2006 | Taegan Goddard

[andy58-in-nh]

Pointy-headedness at its stupid best. Generic polls are worthless as predictors of individual races. Not partially useful, not somewhat informative - worthless.

Generic samples, even if sufficiently large (and culled to exclude unregistered and unlikely voters) ignore regional variation, demographic concentration, voter intensity, and a whole lot of other things that determine the outcome of individual races. Like turnout, for example. Or weather. Or ground-game efficiency (how many personal contacts do I need to make to increase turnout by "x" percent in one key district?)

This is just more FUD from the Democrat-Media Complex.

[fireforeffect]

Beat me to it.

[ikka]

NJ Supremes just handed the election to the Republicans, who will hold the House by a nose.

[DAC21]

Just a couple of pointy head dopes trying to influence the election. I'm sure the RATS have promised them all kinds of funding for further research on why water runs downhill.

[patton]

Ironically, as I was reading this, a pollster called me. "I am just calling to see if you will vote for Jim Webb..."

LOL

"No, not for all your money. Why did you think I would?"

[ilovew]

I believe now, more than ever, that Republicans will retain control of both the House and the Senate. Maybe only by a slim majority but I think we'll still have the majority.

[ilovew]

That's not fair. I'm a poli sci major. I have a 3.75 GPA and I LOVE to argue with my lib professors.

[LibWhacker]

Never trust a political "scientist" to know beans about statistics.

[captain_dave]

Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"

---

Let's break this statement down:

"Political Scientists" are College Professors, since no sane corporation would ever pay anyone to sit around and BS.

"Near Certainty" for an future event is a "Wish"

So, a rough translation is: "College professors wish for Democratic party control of the House of Representatives."

...hardly a surprise there...and well worth ignoring.

[Welike ike]

Thank You New Jersey!!!!!!!!! Great way to wake up the GOP base.

[paratrooper82]

They want more abortions so they can continue to practice on dead babies. Since the liberals are the only ones who really support abortions, the tin foil hats come out in support of the liberals.

Wishful thinking on their part. This is clearly desperation on their part. Just two days ago, they were picking out the new drapes for the speaker of the house!

What happened? Reality just set in! They are scared. This is what they do every time they want something. 95 The earth was cooling and we where in for a new ice age! Now the earth is warming and the polar ice caps are going to melt causing the earth to die. All of this from the so called educated scientist!

[mrsmith]

http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=657

They checked their equations against 2004 info instead of another off-year election.
It's so obvious they should have used 2000 info that it makes one wonder if they secretly did and it failed LOL!

Maybe this paper is a joke...

[mrsmith]

"should have used 2002 info "

[MadIvan]

Charles de Gaulle said there were three ways to go to hell:

1. Gambling
2. Women
3. Believing Experts

Gambling was the quickest, women was the most pleasurable and believing experts was the most certain.

Do not lose hope or heart.

Regards, Ivan

[RegulatorCountry]

"Where I went to school the polysci majors were the ones who couldn't make it in any other major (except education)."

PoliSci majors certainly have trouble with basic math, and are prone to bouts of dark ennui, aren't they, lol?

[rwfromkansas]

that is pretty persuasive

[RonF]

Actually, this has value because it's near the election. If these guys then match the actual results to their model's prediction, they can then try to figure out why there were deviances and then improve their model.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The first thing you learn in statistics is that correlation is not causation.

In other words, past correlation does not predict future results.

[WideGlide]

Where I went to school the polysci majors were the ones who couldn't make it in any other major (except education).

Exceptions you forgot: Communications, and Sports Management! (:^D)

[Princip. Conservative]

Stupid, stupid, stupid. When will these analysts ever learn to stop believing the polls?