Skip to comments.Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"
Posted on 10/25/2006 11:59:44 AM PDT by Torie
In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.
"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the probability of partisan control. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty."
Confound the experts. Vote in droves. Drag every right thinking person with you to do the same.
If you read the report, the last paragraph says in essence that if things change, this forecast is wrong.
Talk about an exercise in futility.
Garbage in, garbage out...
after six years of constant barrage of democratic talking points, demagoggery, and smearing a good many good people, if the democrats CAN'T capture both houses, they ought to fold up shop.
I mena if they can't take addvantage of all this, then they should give it up, and give Soros his money back.
If by "political scientists" they mean college professors, forget it. This report has no credibility at all.
First of all, the profs are wickedly bias toward Democrats; and secondly, the profs are ill-equipped to deal with the real world - 'cause they don't live there.
Tradesports.com numbers, btw, are starting to move up in our favor.
Breathe easy, friends. All will be well.
Make sure you and your friends vote.
They always try (vainly) to preserve some shred of credibility...always at the end of the article.
More Democrat Media shenanigans.
Ther's only one problem, the polls are all weighted towards demoRATS 10-12%.
"Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty""
I always thought the term "political science" was an oxymoron.
That's not "propoganda" that's deep...
And Don Carlos predicts that as early as Nov 8th, the 'Rat rallying cry will be "we demand a recount", "systematic disenfranchisement", and "widespread voter fraud"!
Not really scientists, or politicians:
The American Political Science Review (APSR) continues to be the foremost scholarly research journal of political science.
APSR presents peer-reviewed research articles by political scientists of all subfields. Areas covered include political theory, American politics, public policy, public administration, and international relations.
..yes, experts are always right...
Rex great post thanks. We all must remember the Goebbels disinformation wave by the media in 2004 that tried to percieve DEM dreams into reality.
You know, speaking as a polysci graduate, I gotta comment on your remark. No, I'm not offended, I actually applaude your brilliance.
Walter, maybe these so called scientists work for Professor Frank of " The Simpsons".
Maybe these guys can predict the winner of the Broncos/ Colts game this weekend also.
Political science is the highest science, but also the least mathematical science. Applying mathematics to election prediction should be left to actual scientists not political scientists--who do better when they stick to the ancient methods of contacting the spirit world.