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Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"
Political Wire ^ | October 25, 2006 | Taegan Goddard

Posted on 10/25/2006 11:59:44 AM PDT by Torie

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the probability of partisan control. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty."


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; housecontrol; midtermelections; polls
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And there you have it. The black box has spoken.
1 posted on 10/25/2006 11:59:45 AM PDT by Torie
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To: AntiGuv; crasher

FYI.


2 posted on 10/25/2006 12:00:12 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
Ping to revisit thread after election.
3 posted on 10/25/2006 12:01:16 PM PDT by JOAT
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To: Torie
And in BREAKING NEWS: These same scientists show that 1,000,000,000 Iraqis have been killed by President Bush!
4 posted on 10/25/2006 12:01:23 PM PDT by avacado
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To: Torie
Is that a cloud on yon horizon?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/pruden.htm

Against the prospective new tsunami of great expectations comes the voice of Wall Street money, saying, "Hey, wait a minute." Writes Jim McTague in Barron's, the Dow Jones financial weekly: "Jubilant Democrats should reconsider their order for confetti and noisemakers ... Our analysis, based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data, suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435 [seats]. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-vote majority ... In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three. We ... based our predictions ... on which candidate had the largest campaign war chest, a sign of superior grassroots support. We ignore the polls."

The Barron's analysis is, as you might expect a Wall Street analysis to be, based on cold, hard cash: No sentiment, please, we're all capitalists here. Cash in the stretch not only buys the television commercials -- the meaner the better -- everyone says he hates, but reflects the confidence of the checkbook.

Barron's employed the money test in both 2000 and 2004, and, bucking conventional media wisdom (always a good thing to do), correctly predicted the Republican gains in both years. In the 34 years since 1972, an eternity in politics, the candidate with the most money has won more than 90 percent of the time -- 98 percent, in fact, in the most recent elections. The best of the pollsters can only dream of such results.

5 posted on 10/25/2006 12:02:06 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Torie

They said the same about Kerry in 2004, IIRC.


6 posted on 10/25/2006 12:02:19 PM PDT by Perdogg (Democratic Party - The political wing of Al Qaida)
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To: Torie

Larry "Bad Rug" Sabato again?


7 posted on 10/25/2006 12:02:23 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Torie

Where I went to school the polysci majors were the ones who couldn't make it in any other major (except education).


8 posted on 10/25/2006 12:02:53 PM PDT by NewHampshireDuo
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To: Torie
Same type that predicts catastrophic man-made climate change?
9 posted on 10/25/2006 12:03:01 PM PDT by Edgerunner (Democrats break...Republicans fix))
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To: Torie

A near certainty? They must be uysing the "global warming predictor" on elections now.


10 posted on 10/25/2006 12:03:04 PM PDT by Mad_Tom_Rackham (Democrats. French, but more cowardly.)
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To: Torie

-the only certainty is that hillary clinton is going to take NY state again. To the shame of true NYers.


11 posted on 10/25/2006 12:03:08 PM PDT by tioga
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To: Torie

The 72-hour plan means nothing I assume?

Conservatives...give up...it is hooooooopeeeeelessssssss..

Naah..I'll fight till I can't.


12 posted on 10/25/2006 12:03:27 PM PDT by Armedanddangerous (Master of Sinanju (emeritus))
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To: Torie

Generic ballot.....nuf said.


13 posted on 10/25/2006 12:03:56 PM PDT by shankbear (Al-Qaeda grew while Monica blew)
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To: NewHampshireDuo

"polisci" I guess


14 posted on 10/25/2006 12:05:20 PM PDT by NewHampshireDuo
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To: Torie

I have been expecting a narrow Dem win in the House. But since these "experts" almost always get it wrong . . . .


15 posted on 10/25/2006 12:05:21 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: Torie

Just like any poll -- unreliable.


16 posted on 10/25/2006 12:05:25 PM PDT by fatnotlazy
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To: Torie
Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"

That settles it: Republican landslide.

17 posted on 10/25/2006 12:05:39 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (Natalie Maines fears me...)
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To: Torie
HEY! political scientists is an oxymoron!
18 posted on 10/25/2006 12:05:58 PM PDT by mountainlyons (Hard core conservative)
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To: Torie

The propaganda is deep and persistent..


19 posted on 10/25/2006 12:06:48 PM PDT by hosepipe (CAUTION: This propaganda is laced with hyperbole.)
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To: Torie

Our staff of 72 democrats and 3 independents who plan to vote democratic contributed to this report..


20 posted on 10/25/2006 12:06:50 PM PDT by GeorgiaDawg32 (At 53, I'm the life of every party I go to, even if it lasts till 8 p.m...)
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To: Torie

Confound the experts. Vote in droves. Drag every right thinking person with you to do the same.


21 posted on 10/25/2006 12:07:07 PM PDT by Bahbah (Shalit, Goldwasser and Regev, we are praying for you)
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To: Torie

If you read the report, the last paragraph says in essence that if things change, this forecast is wrong.


22 posted on 10/25/2006 12:07:38 PM PDT by PeterPrinciple (Seeking the Truth here Folks.)
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To: Torie

whatever...


23 posted on 10/25/2006 12:08:10 PM PDT by dubie
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To: Torie
three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

Talk about an exercise in futility.

24 posted on 10/25/2006 12:08:16 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (Politics ain't beanbag. Make it a Rovetember to remember)
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To: Torie

Garbage in, garbage out...


25 posted on 10/25/2006 12:08:33 PM PDT by Interesting Times (ABCNNBCBS -- yesterday's news.)
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To: Torie

after six years of constant barrage of democratic talking points, demagoggery, and smearing a good many good people, if the democrats CAN'T capture both houses, they ought to fold up shop.

I mena if they can't take addvantage of all this, then they should give it up, and give Soros his money back.


26 posted on 10/25/2006 12:09:19 PM PDT by camle (keep your mind open and somebody will fill it full of something for you)
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To: ozzymandus

If by "political scientists" they mean college professors, forget it. This report has no credibility at all.

First of all, the profs are wickedly bias toward Democrats; and secondly, the profs are ill-equipped to deal with the real world - 'cause they don't live there.

Tradesports.com numbers, btw, are starting to move up in our favor.

Breathe easy, friends. All will be well.

Make sure you and your friends vote.


27 posted on 10/25/2006 12:09:47 PM PDT by RexBeach
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To: PeterPrinciple
If you read the report, the last paragraph says in essence that if things change, this forecast is wrong.

They always try (vainly) to preserve some shred of credibility...always at the end of the article.

More Democrat Media shenanigans.

28 posted on 10/25/2006 12:10:55 PM PDT by EternalVigilance (Forget about "MSM", "DBM" etc...just call them "the Democrat media"! Truth in advertising...)
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To: Torie

Ther's only one problem, the polls are all weighted towards demoRATS 10-12%.


29 posted on 10/25/2006 12:11:15 PM PDT by John Lenin
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To: Torie

"Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty""

I always thought the term "political science" was an oxymoron.


30 posted on 10/25/2006 12:11:24 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: hosepipe

That's not "propoganda" that's deep...


31 posted on 10/25/2006 12:11:49 PM PDT by RockinRight (Maintaining a Republican majority is MORE IMPORTANT than your temper tantrum.)
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To: Torie
we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats

And Don Carlos predicts that as early as Nov 8th, the 'Rat rallying cry will be "we demand a recount", "systematic disenfranchisement", and "widespread voter fraud"!

Just watch!

32 posted on 10/25/2006 12:13:02 PM PDT by Don Carlos (Me cache en los Moros. (Ancient Spanish curse))
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To: Torie

Not really scientists, or politicians:
The American Political Science Review (APSR) continues to be the foremost scholarly research journal of political science.
APSR presents peer-reviewed research articles by political scientists of all subfields. Areas covered include political theory, American politics, public policy, public administration, and international relations.

Lumberjacks!


33 posted on 10/25/2006 12:14:22 PM PDT by tumblindice (I find myself sufficiently cognizant of the chronological information you desire. It's 3:15.)
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To: Torie

..yes, experts are always right...

34 posted on 10/25/2006 12:16:19 PM PDT by WalterSkinner ( ..when there is any conflict between God and Caesar -- guess who loses?)
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To: RexBeach

Rex great post thanks. We all must remember the Goebbels disinformation wave by the media in 2004 that tried to percieve DEM dreams into reality.


35 posted on 10/25/2006 12:16:25 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: NewHampshireDuo

You know, speaking as a polysci graduate, I gotta comment on your remark. No, I'm not offended, I actually applaude your brilliance.


36 posted on 10/25/2006 12:17:28 PM PDT by YourAdHere (Buy "Bradypalooza" at Amazon.Com.)
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To: Torie
As we take of our tin foil hats, and together sing this hymn:

Hymmmmmn hymmmmmn f_ _ k! himmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!
37 posted on 10/25/2006 12:18:35 PM PDT by paratrooper82 (82 Airborne 1/508th BN "fury from the sky")
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To: WalterSkinner

Walter, maybe these so called scientists work for Professor Frank of " The Simpsons".

Maybe these guys can predict the winner of the Broncos/ Colts game this weekend also.


38 posted on 10/25/2006 12:18:39 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Torie

Political science is the highest science, but also the least mathematical science. Applying mathematics to election prediction should be left to actual scientists not political scientists--who do better when they stick to the ancient methods of contacting the spirit world.


39 posted on 10/25/2006 12:19:14 PM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: avacado
In further BREAKING NEWS! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
40 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:17 PM PDT by paratrooper82 (82 Airborne 1/508th BN "fury from the sky")
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To: Torie
Pointy-headedness at its stupid best. Generic polls are worthless as predictors of individual races. Not partially useful, not somewhat informative - worthless.

Generic samples, even if sufficiently large (and culled to exclude unregistered and unlikely voters) ignore regional variation, demographic concentration, voter intensity, and a whole lot of other things that determine the outcome of individual races. Like turnout, for example. Or weather. Or ground-game efficiency (how many personal contacts do I need to make to increase turnout by "x" percent in one key district?)

This is just more FUD from the Democrat-Media Complex.

41 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:39 PM PDT by andy58-in-nh
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To: WalterSkinner

Beat me to it.


42 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:41 PM PDT by fireforeffect (A kind word and a 2x4, gets you more than just a kind word.)
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To: Torie

NJ Supremes just handed the election to the Republicans, who will hold the House by a nose.


43 posted on 10/25/2006 12:20:46 PM PDT by ikka
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To: paratrooper82

Just a couple of pointy head dopes trying to influence the election. I'm sure the RATS have promised them all kinds of funding for further research on why water runs downhill.


44 posted on 10/25/2006 12:21:45 PM PDT by DAC21
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To: Edgerunner
Ironically, as I was reading this, a pollster called me. "I am just calling to see if you will vote for Jim Webb..."

LOL

"No, not for all your money. Why did you think I would?"

45 posted on 10/25/2006 12:23:29 PM PDT by patton (Sanctimony frequently reaps its own reward.)
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To: Torie

I believe now, more than ever, that Republicans will retain control of both the House and the Senate. Maybe only by a slim majority but I think we'll still have the majority.


46 posted on 10/25/2006 12:23:37 PM PDT by ilovew (I love being a DoD intern...)
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To: NewHampshireDuo

That's not fair. I'm a poli sci major. I have a 3.75 GPA and I LOVE to argue with my lib professors.


47 posted on 10/25/2006 12:24:48 PM PDT by ilovew (I love being a DoD intern...)
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To: Torie

Never trust a political "scientist" to know beans about statistics.


48 posted on 10/25/2006 12:25:49 PM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: Torie
Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a "Near Certainty"

---

Let's break this statement down:

"Political Scientists" are College Professors, since no sane corporation would ever pay anyone to sit around and BS.

"Near Certainty" for an future event is a "Wish"

So, a rough translation is: "College professors wish for Democratic party control of the House of Representatives."

...hardly a surprise there...and well worth ignoring.

49 posted on 10/25/2006 12:26:23 PM PDT by captain_dave
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To: LibWhacker

Thank You New Jersey!!!!!!!!! Great way to wake up the GOP base.


50 posted on 10/25/2006 12:28:13 PM PDT by Welike ike
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