I said, when the boomers retire... do the math...
1946 + 63 == 2009 at the earliest
(not counting the small percentage that retire early)
oh, and I'm sorry, but that 20 sq miles would not be considered representative of the northeast. Manhattan and NYC would be one of the last places jobs would drain from. First hit would be the burbs and rural areas (VT, NH, ME, parts of Connecticut). Families whose children have left the nest, and are now looking to retire.
Don't worry, naysayers like you already missed the massive increase in FL real estate. Homes selling for $300k in 1995 sell for $2-3m today (beach front example). The average home price is still under $250k... but it will go up as the demand increases with the influx of the boomers. The numbers seen up north and out west are a taste of what to expect by 2012 in parts of FL (limited real estate... waterfront, golf courses, etc)
As with all doom&gloomers and bubblebusting proponents, when refuted, you get even more hysterical....in both senses of that word.
Not ALL Baby Boomer retirees are going to sell their homes and move south or west. Many BOOMERS already have second and third homes. And there are a lot more of them, than in any previous generation, who have retired early.
You claimed that ALL of the Northeast would fall prey to problems from a bursting housing bubble. That just isn't so, Not every region, not even every state has seen a large real estate surge in the past 5 years. Ergo, they are unaffected buy a turn down in real estate; whic h IS and has been selective.
Since many people who live in Jersey and Ct. work in N.Y.C., they wouldn't be hit by any job losses.
And BTW, lots of retirees and Baby Boomers own a second or third home in N.H. and Vt.!
You have NO idea what my circumstances are, nor that of most FREEPERS. To make snide, not to mention spurious and fallacious comments about Florida real estate, is also a dumb move on your part. FYI....you couldn't have bought a house on Bird Key, in 1995, for $300,000 unless it was a complete tear-down; pet. And it might be true that in the entire state of Florida, the "average" home may cost $250,000 today, none of them are situated in places that most people consider moving to.
Oh yes and IF you think that you can find a house on the water or in a gated community, or in a gated, golf course community in the southwestern part of Florida, today, for $250,000, you have NO idea what THAT market is like at all!
You're also ignoring the fact that many Baby Boomers have now or soon shall be inheriting a LOT of money from their parents, who were SAVERS; unlike many people today. They have money/assets to use, quite removed from just the price of their own homes.