Posted on 10/31/2006 6:49:39 AM PST by freespirited
With a week to go before voters cast their midterm election ballots, four key Senate races remain statistical dead heats...
Among likely voters in Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, were at a dead heat, each with 49 percent support. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, McCaskill led 51-43 percent. ...
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. -- hoping to make history as the first black candidate ever elected by Southern voters to a Senate seat -- trailed his Republican opponent, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, by a margin of 52-44 percent among likely voters.
However, among registered voters, Corker's lead was just 47-45 percent, and the results for both likely and registered voters were within the sampling error.
In Virginia, Republican Sen. George Allen -- who has watched his once considerable lead vanish after a series of gaffes and controversies -- trailed his Democratic challenger, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb, by 50-46 percent among likely voters, which was also within the sampling error.
The GOP incumbent who appears to be in the most trouble in the states polled by CNN was Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio, who trailed his Democratic rival, Rep. Sherrod Brown, by a margin of 54-43 percent among likely voters.
Democrats need to make a net pickup of six seats next Tuesday in order to win control of the Senate. To get there, they are trying to win the open GOP seat in Tennessee and targeting six vulnerable Republican incumbents, including DeWine, Talent, Allen and Sens. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Conrad Burns of Montana.
Republicans are hoping to make that task more difficult by challenging Menendez and trying to pick up two open Democratic seats in Maryland and Minnesota.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Northern Virginia isn't particularly left-wing, compared to the Maryland suburbs of Washington DC.
However you'll not find nearly as many social cons and religious conservatives there as you would in the rest of the state.
Lcal voters in both Northern VA and Hampton Roads (the southeastern corner, Norfolk area) soundly defeated a proposed local sales tax increase to fund more roads. Allen needs to keep hammering on his conservative roots.
I know, I worked there for several years before my sentence was commuted - now live and work in Hampton Roads.
Webb was leading by 5 in Hampton Roads as of a week ago. Overall Allen led by 4 in that poll.
http://www.dailypress.com/news/senatepoll.o24,0,1280490.story?coll=dp-widget-news
If you look at the polls, there is an oversampling of Dems almost across the board. Also more and more Republicans refuse to answer their phone when they see it is a pollster.
Internal polling is showing far different numbers for many of the races then the corrupt MSM polls are showing. You can make the questions you ask, get your the answers you want from a lot of people. Kind of like 'do you still beat your wife?' kind of questions. Also you have to realize that polls on weekends tend to favor Dems and have for years. Note a lot of these polls came from weekend polling to the glee of the MSM.
Only poll that counts in on election day! That means every last Republican needs to get out and vote and show the pollsters they don't have a clue!
Mark it down: I have Talent, Allen, and Corker in the "safe" column. They all will win by a couple of percent.
I have Burns in the "nearly safe" column. I know, he still "trails," which by bogus polling methodology means he has a narrow lead. Turnout will make him safe. Ditto Steele.
I have Chafee and Kean in the "tossup" column. I think they'll both win, but we'll have to sweat a little.
I have DeWine in the "difficult, but do-able" column.
The only one I am having grave concerns about is Santorum, who just seems unable to move.
BTW, keep your eye on both Bouchard (MI) and Kennedy (MN). If the races start to break our way, and if DeVos continues to gather steam, Bouchard will be the night's surprise winner. Kennedy improving, but still in the "difficult" range.
See my post, above. I have Talent in the "Safe" column on my big board.
I hope you are right. And I hope we win in VA, TN and CO. I am still praying for Rick in Pennsylvania. I hope Kean can beat Menendez just to wipe the smirk off Jon Corzine's face.
I don't think we have a senate race in CO.
What bothers me about VA is the number of New York libs who have moved there in order to ruin it.
John Fund on Fox & Friends this morning said we may not know which party will control the Senate until a week or more after election day, if some races are too close to call--there are so many absentee ballots nowadays, and in most places they don't count them until after the election, so we won't know the winner on election night.
I think this will be the last of the "bad" polls this year.
Only this company could be so wrong this close to the election and not lose money (and even Gupta and CNN only dared to slant the results within the margin of error).
Earlier pollsters could blame discrepencies on a lot of reasons but the electorate has formed up and a good pollster should be able to get good results in the last week.
Any mistakes the pollsters make from now on will hurt their credibility and future income.
I read this all the time on FR but I haven't seen anything that substantiates it.
Gupta's main company is InfoUSA. I refuse to use his shoddy databases to do marketing.
Low volume (normally) ping list
FReepmail me to be on, or off, this list.
Among likely voters in Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, were at a dead heat, each with 49 percent support. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, McCaskill led 51-43 percent. ...
A lot of folks keep saying that, but Raz says he uses equal numbers of Dems and Republicans in Va. And for some of the other polls I cannot find the data on sample composition. I can't assume from no data that Dems were oversampled.
Also more and more Republicans refuse to answer their phone when they see it is a pollster.
Let's say that is true. How do we explain that with that the case, Allen was ahead by three or four points from August to a week ago and is now behind by three or four? Not answering the phone doesn't work as an explanation unless Republicans just started doing it a week ago.
I am increasingly confident on Corker, I'd share your confidence on Talent were it not for the history of Dem vote fraud in Missouri and getting judges to hold the polls open in Dem areas so they can get more votes!
I am concerned about the Allen situation. We'll see.
cnn polls are a joke. the wjs stopped working with cnn due to issues with published results by cnn. AKA ,ccn tooks the poll data and reworked it and it was flat out fraud .apparently the wsj did not want its name linked this propaganda
WOW! I didn't know they counted them AFTER the election. I always thought they counted them as the ballots came in. Can the out come be manipulated to go the RATS way if they are losing on election night? I guess I'm growing more and more skeptical of those in charge of the ballots after the FL and WA fiasco.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.