Posted on 10/31/2006 6:27:26 PM PST by calcowgirl
. . . The Hoover Institution is predicting a "Demcratic tidal wave" . . . The Hoover Poll was one of only two public polls to correctly forecast the outcome of all major propositions correctly.
According to the survey, conducted October 19-27 by Polimetrix, Democratic candidates hold comfortable margins over their Republican opponents. Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi leads State Senator Tom McClintock 51% to 45% in the race for Lieutenant Governor. John Chiang has a commanding 52-40 percent edge over Tony Strickland. And Deborah Bowen is up 50-43 percent over incumbent Republican Bruce McPherson. U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein leads Republican State Senator Richard Mountjoy 57% to 39% in her bid for reelection. Current Attorney General Bill Lockyer is headed for an easy victory in the contest for State Treasurer as is Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown who is running for Attorney General. Both hold double-digit leads over their Republican opponents.
Schwarzenegger has a 50-40% percent edge. Poizner leads Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante 55% to 36% in the race for Insurance Commissioner.
On the prop, the shocker is Prop 90. The eminent domain initiative is well ahead, favored by 58% and opposed by 28%. Propositions 87 (oil company tax) narrowly leads 49% to 44%, while support and opposition for Proposition 86 (cigarette tax) are about the same. Propositions 85 (parental notification of abortions), 88 (education parcel tax), and 89 (public financing for campaigns) are all trailing by large margins.
The survey was designed by Stanford Political Science Professors and Hoover Senior Fellows David Brady, Morris Fiorina, and Douglas Rivers. The survey was conducted between October 19 and 27, 2006, by Polimetrix, Inc. Participating in the survey were 877 likely voters belonging to the PollingPoint Internet panel. Panelists were selected to match a random sample drawn from the California voter list by age, gender, race, party registration, and residence. The margin of error for the survey estimates is approximately plus or minus 3.5 percent. The survey estimates are also subject to potential non-sampling errors due to the sample selection technique, measurement error, and other non-sampling errors.
I couldn't find another source for this poll in the news.
Really going out on a limb aren't they, predicting a Dem sweep in Kalifornia.
Recap of Maviglio's summary: Governor: Schwarzenegger (R) leads Angelides (D) 50% to 40% Lt Governor: Garamendi (D) leads McClintock (R) 51% to 45% Sec of State: Bowen (D) leads McPherson (R) 50% to 43% Atty General: Jerry Brown (D) leads Poochigian (R) "double-digit lead" Treasurer: Lockyer (D) leads Parrish (R) "double-digit lead" Controller: Chiang (D) leads Strickland (R) 52% to 40% Ins Commissioner: Poizner (R) leads Bustamante (D) 55% to 36% U.S. Senate: Feinstein (D) leads Mountjoy (R) 57% to 39% Proposition 85 (parental notification) "trailing by large margin" Proposition 86 (cigarette tax) "about the same" Proposition 87 (Oil tax) leads 49% to 44% Proposition 88 (education parcel tax) "trailing by large margin" Proposition 89 (campaign financing) "trailing by large margin" Prop 90 (Eminent domain) leads 58% - 28%
Democrats are anti-american.
They should all be re-patriated to france where they will
face their comeuppance.
Seriously though their demise is awaited by any true patriot.
I can assume that the sample is limited to those who make a request. As you know, personal honesty is the concept behind the proxy server.
Filled out a request form to Polimetrix recently?
Tom McClintock is the BEST person to lead California and he cant get a jump on these Lib Losers..... shameful if this poll is true and accurate. It would not be a shock to think my fellow Californians want to tax business here (oil companies), allow little girls the ability to abort their babies and pass every bond that will cost more in interest than balance...... This is sad. Plain sad.
I don't know that much about the Hoover poll, but I am deeply skeptical of "Internet panels" in which the participants are determined ahead of time and are at least partly self-selected. Even trying to adjust the results to match various demographic characteristics does not solve that fundamental problem.
It's not as useless as a typical internet poll, but I strongly doubt that it is as accurate as a telephone poll which calls randomly-selected voters. And telephone polls already have plenty of factors which degrade their accuracy.
October 31, 2006 03:24 PM Eastern Time
PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In the midst of a Democratic trend, one of the few bright spots for Republicans is California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who appears headed for a solid victory in his quest for reelection.
According to a survey conducted October 19-27 for the Hoover Institution by Polimetrix, Schwarzenegger leads his Democratic opponent, California State Treasurer Phil Angelides, 50% to 40%, with 10% undecided or supporting third party candidates.
In most other races, Democratic candidates hold comfortable margins over their Republican opponents. U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein leads Republican State Senator Richard Mountjoy 57% to 39% in her bid for reelection. Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi leads State Senator Tom McClintock 51% to 45% in the race for Lieutenant Governor. Current Attorney General Bill Lockyer is headed for an easy victory in the contest for State Treasurer as is Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown, who is running for Attorney General. Both hold double-digit leads over their Republican opponents.
The only Republican other than Schwarzenegger likely to win a statewide contest is Steve Poizner. Poizner leads Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante 55% to 36% in the race for Insurance Commissioner.
| Governor | U.S. Senator | |||
| Schwarzenegger (R) | 50% | Feinstein (D) | 57% | |
| Angelides (D) | 40% | Mountjoy (R) | 39% | |
| Lt. Governor | Secretary of State | |||
| Garamendi (D) | 51% | Bowen (D) | 50% | |
| McClintock (R) | 45% | McPherson (R) | 43% | |
| Attorney General | Treasurer | |||
| Brown (D) | 58% | Lockyer (D) | 55% | |
| Poochigian (R) | 37% | Parrish (R) | 37% | |
| Controller | Insurance Commissioner | |||
| Chiang (D) | 52% | Poizner (R) | 55% | |
| Strickland (R) | 40% | Bustamante (D) | 36% |
Just a year ago, Schwarzenegger suffered a serious setback when all four propositions that he backed in the 2005 Special Election were defeated. Schwarzenegger’s popularity has recovered to 47%. Respondents were re–polled on the 2005 initiatives and two of the four defeated propositions are now supported by substantial majorities. 63% of the likely voters are in favor of prohibiting union dues being used for political contributions and 58% say that the probationary period for public school teachers should be increased. On the other hand, the Governor’s spending limitation and redistricting initiatives were supported by only 34% and 35%, respectively, of the likely voters.
Only one or two propositions on the 2006 ballot appear likely to pass. Proposition 90 (eminent domain restrictions) is well ahead, favored by 58% and opposed by 28%. Propositions 87 (oil company tax) narrowly leads 49% to 44%, while support and opposition for Proposition 86 (cigarette tax) are about the same. Propositions 85 (parental notification of abortions), 88 (education parcel tax), and 89 (public financing for campaigns) are all trailing by large margins.
| Proposition | Subject | For | Against | Undecided | ||||
| 85 | Parental Notification | 42% | 51% | 7% | ||||
| 86 | Cigarette Tax | 49% | 47% | 4% | ||||
| 87 | Oil Company Tax | 49% | 44% | 7% | ||||
| 88 | Education Parcel Tax | 31% | 60% | 9% | ||||
| 89 | Public Financing | 35% | 52% | 13% | ||||
| 90 | Eminent Domain | 58% | 28% | 14% |
The survey was designed by Stanford Political Science Professors and Hoover Senior Fellows David Brady, Morris Fiorina, and Douglas Rivers. The survey was conducted between October 19 and 27, 2006, by Polimetrix, Inc. Participating in the survey were 877 likely voters belonging to the PollingPoint Internet panel. Panelists were selected to match a random sample drawn from the California voter list by age, gender, race, party registration, and residence. The margin of error for the survey estimates is approximately plus or minus 3.5 percent. The survey estimates are also subject to potential non-sampling errors due to the sample selection technique, measurement error, and other non-sampling errors.
This methodology was used in the 2005 California Special Election and was one of only two public polls to correctly forecast the outcome of all major propositions correctly.
About Polimetrix
Polimetrix is a non-partisan polling organization based in Palo Alto founded by Stanford Political Science Professor Douglas Rivers. Polimetrix has developed a unique sample selection methodology that combines a large Internet panel with voter and consumer databases to create representative voter samples. The company is backed by Alloy Ventures, a leading early-stage venture capital investor.
Contacts
Hoover Institution
Michele M. Horaney, APR, Public Affairs Manager
650-725-7293
Horaney@hoover.stanford.edu
Douglas Rivers, 650-723-2612, 650-533-8549, 650-462-8002
These are themes which define an emerging independent spirit that could transcend the conventional boundaries of the two parties.
In separate appearances, the current governor of California and former action superstar and the current Oakland mayor and former governor of California each speaks of the value and virtues of bipartisanship. Each focuses on the future and California’s role in defining it, with heavy emphasis on Washington’s failure in looking to the future.
Schwarzenegger and Brown both strongly emphasize the fight against climate change and global warming and the promise of stem cell research, and California’s leading role on those issues. Each sees California now and in the future as the seedbed of new technologies that have in the past and will in the future create new industries.
Both eschew the Democrat/Republican hyperpartisanship that has defined the current political era.
I view all polls with great skepticism. If nothing else, it might motivate Republicans to get to the polling place and support the downticket candidates! That is not a bad thing. :-)
well if garamendi and any other backwards democrat politicians wins this election, it won't me much of a surprise because common sense politicians who care about the the future of caifornia have no chance of winning any elections in california because the way it is in this state, the more money you have the more you will be able to create the preception and brainwash people to vote for your canidate or a prop.
Well, yes, they got the outcomes "correct", but their percentages were often way off. I went back and looked at their results for the 2005 special election. Here are the results of the Polimetrix 10/21 - 10/28/2005 survey of its panel of 924 likely voters compared to the actual results:
Prop 73 (parental notification):
Polimetrix: 43% Y, 53% N, 5% U
Actual: 47.2% Y, 52.8% N
Prop 74 (teacher tenure):
Polimetrix: 42% Y, 53% N, 5% U
Actual: 44.8% Y, 55.2% N
Prop 75 (union dues/contributions):
Polimetrix: 50% Y, 45% N, 5% U
Actual: 46.5% Y, 53.5% N
Prop 76 (spending limits):
Polimetrix: 36% Y, 59% N, 5% U
Actual: 37.6% Y, 62.4% N
Prop 77 (redistricting):
Polimetrix: 42% Y, 46% N, 12% U
Actual: 40.2% Y, 59.8% N
Prop 78 (drug discounts):
Polimetrix: 39% Y, 45% N, 16% U
Actual: 41.5% Y, 58.5% N
Prop 79 (prescription drugs):
Polimetrix: 43% Y, 40% N, 17% U
Actual: 39.3% Y, 60.7% N
As you can see, Polimetrix came satisfactorily close on the "Yes" side, but in many cases was way off on the "No" side. Apparently most of their "Undecideds" ended up voting "No". Alternatively, the "No" campaigns for many of the measures were very effective in convincing the voters during the last week or two of the election. Whatever the explanation, Polimetrix almost uniformly underestimated the final "No" vote for all the propositions, often by huge margins.
We don't know from this historical example whether Polimetrix is any good at predicting races between candidates rather than ballot measures. What we do know is that the results for the propositions on this November's ballot are likely to be more negative (perhaps much more negative) than predicted by this latest Hoover/Polimetrix survey.
I consider that excellent news, with the obvious exception that I very much want Prop 90 to win. But given the huge 30-point lead that Polimetrix is giving it, I'm hopeful that it will hang on for at least a narrow victory.
Interesting comparison on Polimetrix. They missed by a longshot on quite a few.
Regarding Prop 90, my take was similar to yours, as I posted 2 days ago:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1728788/posts?page=17#17
I'll keep my fingers crossed.
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